When Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was on his way to the major leagues, his bat carried a lofty and specific promise.
Before he even turned 20, he was described as a prospect with the power of his Hall of Fame father featuring a command of the strike zone that Vladimir Guerrero Sr. never had — or needed.
In 2021, that’s precisely the hitter he was, but so far in 2022 his approach has been more reminiscent of his dad's than he’s shown thus far in his MLB career. Guerrero Jr.’s .287/.325/.711 slash line is nothing short of outstanding, but the way he’s achieving those numbers differs significantly from what we saw last year.
Vladdy has struck out at a surprising clip in the season's opening 10 games (27.5 percent) while drawing a single unintentional walk. That has resulted in a 0.18 K/BB, which ranks 150th among 185 qualified hitters. Last year, only seven hitters topped his 0.78 K/BB.
Although we’re dealing with a small sample, the difference is profound and is stemming from a readily identifiable cause. Guerrero Jr. is in the midst of making an adjustment to the fact that no one is willing to throw him a strike.
Only 29 percent of pitches the slugger has seen in 2022 have been the strike zone. Not only is that the lowest number in the majors, of the 11,551 times a hitter has at least 40 plate appearances since 2002 (when FanGraphs began tracking zone rate), none of them have seen a lower percentage of pitches in the zone. A small-sample warning applies again, but seeing pitches in the zone less than a third of the time is basically unheard of.
Based on what we know about Guerrero Jr., the obvious assumption would be that he’d use his strong strike-zone judgment to convert this barrage of would-be balls into walks. Instead, he’s upped his aggressiveness.
As a result of seeing fewer pitches in the zone than ever before ...
… Guerrero Jr. has found an unprecedented level of aggression of pitches outside of it:
His O-Swing rate of 45.2 percent ranks 8th among 185 qualified hitters, ahead of all his teammates — including Bo Bichette, who’s recorded 11 strikeouts and no walks.
For the vast majority of hitters, this level of chasing pitches (and the resulting K/BB), would be indicative of a slump. For Guerrero Jr., that hasn’t been the case. That’s largely because — like Guerrero Sr. — he’s able to drive pitches other hitters can’t touch.
In his three home run effort against the New York Yankees on April 13, for instance, he famously crushed a 98 mph fastball way in off the plate ...
… and with slightly less fanfare demolished a Jonathan Loiasiga sinker breaking in on his hands:
There’s a difference between being able to do something, and being able to do it consistently, though — and Guerrero Jr.’s whiff chart reveals that along with those home runs have come uncompetitive swinging strikes on pitches way off the plate:
Guerrero Jr. may be one of one, but over the course of his career the difference between his production in and out of the strike zone is stark — just like it is for any hitter.
So far this season, Guerrero Jr. has thrived by flashing his ability to hit pitchers’ pitches and producing on the rare occasions that he’s thrown strikes. Over the longer term, a different adjustment may be required if he’s going to replicate his outstanding 2021 breakout season.
Vladdy has become one of the most feared hitters in baseball. That title comes with special treatment from opposing pitchers. Right now they are giving him very little to hit, and he’s giving them very little incentive to change that plan of attack.
That’s caused a situation where Guerrero Jr. is swimming upstream, chasing hits instead of letting them come to him. He’s one of the few sluggers on the planet talented enough to make that work — even for a short period — but its sustainability is an open question.
With a little more selectivity the 23-year-old could make life significantly easier for himself, even if that means taking more walks and passing the baton to the hitters behind him in the lineup. Guerrero Jr. has been absolutely mashing with an approach that’s probably adjusted too far to the way he’s been pitched. Once he finds his equilibrium it’s hard to put a ceiling on what he could produce.
