Where the Blue Jays' bullpen rebuild begins

Statistically speaking, the 2024 Toronto Blue Jays bullpen was one of the worst we’ve seen in some time.

Its 4.82 ERA, 4.84 FIP, and 20.7 per cent strikeout rate all ranked last in the American League. A 41.2 per cent hard-hit rate and 1.46 HR/9 were MLB’s highest. At 2.5 wins below replacement per FanGraphs, it was the least productive bullpen since the 2018 Miami Marlins — one of only three to finish with -2.5 fWAR in the last decade.

And so far this winter, the club has only subtracted from it. Ryan Yarbrough became a free agent. The 2024 leader in appearances and innings among relievers, Genesis Cabrera, was designated for assignment. Toronto’s closer since 2021, Jordan Romano, was non-tendered. Eight of the club’s top 15 relievers by innings pitched last season are no longer with the organization, creating a 260.1 inning void.

Considering the group’s immense struggles, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. A thorough bullpen rebuild was necessary ahead of 2025. That starts with making room for what’s to come. And with how poorly things went in 2024, it wouldn’t be unheard of to see a reversal of fortune for such an innately volatile, unpredictable player group.

Luke Weaver, a thrice-DFA’ed journeyman who entered the season with a 5.96 ERA across 38 career relief appearances, was a closer in this year’s World Series. Robert Suarez, who signed his first MLB contract at the age of 30, entered 2024 with one career save and finished fourth in MLB with 36. The Athletics — a team that’s about to run MLB’s smallest payroll for a third year running — shaved 1.37 runs off its bullpen ERA from 2023 (5.20) to 2024 (3.83) while increasing its fWAR by nearly five wins.

But it would take a boatload of unexpected surprises from within to turn the current Blue Jays bullpen into one capable of getting them to the post-season, let alone competing in it. Between now and Opening Day, the Blue Jays must find two late-game, high-leverage relievers — one of them preferably with closing experience. They could also use at least one more middle-relief option. And a left-hander to replace some of the 87.1 innings pitched by Cabrera and Tim Mayza last season.

We’ll see how Toronto’s front office addresses this glaring roster need in the coming weeks. But for now, let’s take a look at its starting point as it rebuilds a relief corps from the ground up.

Back-end leverage

With Romano a free agent, Green slides into the closer’s role for now by virtue of saving 28 games in his career. The only other player on the roster with double-digit saves is Swanson, who has 10. And the only other pitchers in the organization with any big-league saves are Zach Pop and Brendon Little, who have one apiece.

We saw Green fill the role well over the summer when the back end of Toronto’s bullpen imploded, converting all 16 of his save opportunities through the end of August. But he began September blowing three in a row as part of a disastrous final month in which he allowed 11 earned runs over 8.2 innings pitched. It was the second-most runs he’d allowed in any single month of his nine-season MLB career.

Did Green, who threw just 27 innings combined over 2022 and 2023 with a Tommy John surgery in the middle, run out of gas as his innings total neared 50? Was the .189 BABIP and 1.61 ERA against a 4.04 FIP he carried into September simply unsustainable? Was it both?

Regardless, the Blue Jays would be much more comfortable with Green filling a set-up role in 2025, attacking pockets of right-handed hitters in the seventh or eighth inning in front of a closer with nastier stuff. There are plenty of experienced closers available via free agency: Aroldis Chapman, Carlos Estevez, Clay Holmes, Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Paul Sewald, Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates. But it’s a pricey, high-risk market Toronto’s front office has traditionally been reticent to shop in.

Meanwhile, Swanson returns for 2025 on a one-year, $3-million deal, hoping to have left 2024’s struggles with location, and pitch tipping behind. What’s encouraging for the Blue Jays is that the velocity and shape on Swanson’s pitches never wavered, and upon returning from a mid-season demotion to rework his mechanics, he pitched to a 2.55 ERA with a 27.5 per cent strikeout rate over his final 27 outings. If the Blue Jays can get that version of Swanson this season, he’ll be valuable in a set-up role.

If the Blue Jays can add a proven closer and another late-game leverage arm, they can feel good about the back end of their bullpen entering the season and seek to reinforce it at the trade deadline. And if Toronto’s offence can score more runs, the club’s relievers will be less taxed if and when they get there.

An under-discussed fact coming out of the 2023 season was how Blue Jays relievers faced the fourth most high-leverage innings in MLB (as measured by FanGraphs) and had four late-game arms set career highs in appearances. In hindsight, maybe it wasn’t so surprising to see the back end of Toronto’s bullpen collapse a season later.

Middle relief

Toronto’s pursuit of starting pitching this winter indicates the club is planning to shift Rodriguez to a relief role, where his electric-yet-inconsistently-commanded stuff could play up in shorter stints. That would kill a few birds with one stone, adding a versatile arm capable of racking up strikeouts to Toronto’s bullpen, rounding out the 2025 rotation with a more proven starter, and filling a gap in future seasons as Chris Bassitt hits free agency next winter ahead of Kevin Gausman a year later.

Burr and Little both played unexpectedly substantial roles in Toronto’s 2024 bullpen and ought to return for 2025, although their optionable status opens the possibility of beginning the year at triple-A if Toronto adds significantly to its relief corps. Burr struck out a third of the batters he faced last season; Little led MLB with a 70.9 per cent ground-ball rate. They’re both useful when deployed appropriately.

Pop and Nance, meanwhile, are out of options and will be pitching for jobs if they’re still on Toronto’s 40-man come spring training. Both have undeniable big-league stuff — Stuff+ considered Nance’s curveball the best in baseball last season — that they’ve struggled to reliably command. Pop has missed too often on the plate; Nance has missed too often off of it.

Burr, Little, Pop, and Nance aren’t exactly inspiring options within the bullpen of a team that intends to compete for a World Series. But neither were Jason Adam, Anthony Banda, Mark Leiter Jr., and Joel Payamps when they were briefly Blue Jays. As they add to their 40-man this winter, the Blue Jays will try not to trim from this group, lest another team be holding the ball when one of them puts it all together.

40-man depth

These six round out the 13 relievers currently on the Blue Jays 40-man roster, but it’s a good bet that several of them will be off that roster come spring training. Lucas, de Geus, and Robertson are holdovers from the waiver claim spree the Blue Jays went on over the final two months of the season, taking chances on any reliever available in an effort to unearth a pearl upon the ocean.

With five appearances for the Blue Jays collectively, none of the three had an opportunity to make much of an impression. But Lucas pitched well at triple-A all season, working to a 2.75 ERA over 68.2 innings with 73 strikeouts.

As a left-hander with two options remaining who can pitch multiple innings, Lucas offers some utility. Of course, you could say all that of Eisert, too. But Lucas throws harder and has had more success in the minors against right-handed hitting, which could give him a slight edge.

Danner, meanwhile, throws as hard as anyone on this list, working his fastball in the mid-to-high 90s with a nasty, vertical slider. The issue has been staying healthy as Danner has missed substantial time over the last three years with UCL, oblique, and hand injuries. He was drafted eight years ago and has thrown only 114.1 professional innings.

But Danner was putting himself on the radar as a big-league option in June before his latest injury and would have been strongly considered for a summer promotion had he remained healthy. He’ll enter spring training out of options and auditioning for that big-league role. And if he strings together some impressive Grapefruit League outings, he might just win it.

Peterson is worth monitoring due to how dominant he was at triple-A last season — in the Pacific Coast League hitter’s haven no less — pitching to a 1.64 ERA over 35 appearances while striking out a massive 35.2 per cent of the hitters he faced and walking only 6.4 per cent. And due to his stuff: he sits 97 m.p.h. and touches 99 with a hard, high-80s cutter.

The 30-year-old is optionable (low-key one of the more attractive traits to clubs seeking middle-inning relievers these days) and his grisly 5.95 big-league ERA last season can be chalked up to poor execution in his first stint at the level. If the Blue Jays can help Peterson locate more consistently to the edges of the strike zone, there could be something here.

Ultimately, there are glaring gaps in this bullpen. The Blue Jays need to find two more late-game leverage relievers, another middle-inning option who could temporarily backfill for a leverage arm if needed, and a capable left-hander.

Steamer currently projects Blue Jays relievers to produce 1.1 fWAR collectively — MLB’s fourth-lowest total. Incredibly, that would represent a three-and-a-half win improvement on 2024. And yet, it wouldn’t be nearly enough.