Which rival executives will impact Blue Jays’ deadline moves most?

TORONTO – This time of year, when they’re asked about the possibility of summer trades, baseball people will often lean on a familiar cliche: control the controllable.

They don’t get to choose what rival teams do, so instead of obsessing over what might happen in 29 other big-league cities, they try to focus on what they know: the daily routines that got them this far. 

It’s a commendable approach, especially at a time of year when there’s so much speculation. But realistically, a lot of what the Blue Jays do ahead of the July 30 trade deadline will be determined by outside forces. Like it or not, what you control is only part of the picture this time of year.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the decision-makers around the league who will have a disproportionately large impact on what’s next for the Blue Jays. They may not be thinking of the Blue Jays much at all right now, but the next steps of these executives will be worth watching closely between now and July 30 at 6 p.m. ET: 

Rangers GM Chris Young

After trading Yimi Garcia to the Mariners, the Blue Jays’ best remaining trade chip is Yusei Kikuchi, so the less quality starting pitching is out there, the more leverage GM Ross Atkins has. And who, more than anyone else in baseball, has the power to flood the market with starting pitching? It’s Young, the longtime pitcher turned Texas GM.

If the 51-53 Rangers sell, the likes of Andrew Heaney, Nathan Eovaldi and even Max Scherzer would each have appeal on the trade market. But if the defending World Series winners buy, or even hold, contending teams in search of pitching will have fewer options, giving teams like the Blue Jays more leverage.

Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris

Rival executives expect the Tigers to trade Jack Flaherty, whose two-plus breaking pitches and minuscule walk rate overshadow the fact that he’s had two injections in his occasionally troublesome back since June. Let’s consider a trade here extremely likely.

Yet there’s still the question of whether the Tigers trade Tarik Skubal, the American League Cy Young frontrunner who’s still two and a half years away from free agency. Since the Tigers’ rebuild is showing real signs of paying off at the MLB level, it would presumably take a monster offer based around multiple elite young players to land Skubal.

If that happens, at least one buyer will be out of the market for Kikuchi.

White Sox GM Chris Getz

The same logic applies to the White Sox, who are expected to trade starters Erick Fedde and Garrett Crochet. At least, they were expected to trade them.

Fedde still seems likely to go, but the recent development that Crochet reportedly wants an extension before agreeing to start in October or move to the bullpen creates a wrinkle for GMs interested in pitching: Do they attempt to land a negotiating window with Crochet and extend him by Tuesday, as the Dodgers did while trading for Tyler Glasnow? Do they acquire him anyways and test his resolve? Or do they take a simpler path and pursue someone like Kikuchi?

None of that’s within the Blue Jays’ control, but it will certainly impact their next four days.

Orioles GM Mike Elias

First of all, the Orioles look like a potential buyer for starting pitching, even after acquiring Zach Eflin from the Rays on Friday. And it’s hard to see Baltimore going after Flaherty as they acquired him last year, and it didn’t work especially well. With that in mind, they’re a team to watch for Kikuchi, who will be conveniently located at Camden Yards beginning Monday, along with the rest of the Blue Jays.

But even more broadly, Elias and the Orioles are worth watching because they look like an AL East contender for years to come. Best-case scenario for the Blue Jays, the likes of the Orioles and Yankees trade away all kinds of long-term talent for rentals this summer. If the Orioles and Yankees win 100 games apiece this year, that doesn’t really hurt the Blue Jays, so they might as well have their long-term chances improve by seeing young talent leave the division.

To be fair, Elias didn’t get the Orioles to this point by being reckless, so don’t count on that to start now. But who knows, maybe the Orioles decide to push more chips in this year, just as they did with last winter’s Corbin Burnes trade. If they do, that’s good news for the Blue Jays.

Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos

Injuries have depleted Atlanta’s once-formidable lineup, it stands to reason Anthopoulos will look to address those holes with a position player, and on paper the Blue Jays look like a potential match. No, not George Springer to fill in for Ronald Acuna Jr. but maybe Isiah Kiner-Falefa to fill in for Ozzie Albies?

With due respect to fringe prospects Ty Tice, Leonel Callez, and Kelvin Perez, Anthopoulos and the Blue Jays haven’t lined up for a single substantial trade since he became Atlanta’s GM in 2017. But seven years later, at least some conditions could be in place for their first noteworthy deal.