Even after scoring nine runs in three of their last four games, The Toronto Blue Jays enter Friday with the fourth-lowest scoring lineup in the majors — and any improvement to the team’s offence is unlikely to come from outside the organization.
When Ross Atkins addressed the media last week he acknowledged the possibility of an early-season trade, but also said that there would be a premium to be paid in any deal. Not only would the price be high but any immediate-term offensive upgrade would be coming to a team with the worst record in its division and that sit at 24.6 per cent according to FanGraphs and dip as low as 15.5 per cent at Baseball-Reference.
That doesn’t mean the Blue Jays should give up on 2024, but it would make far more sense for the team’s front office to let things play out a bit than make aggressive additions at the moment. This team is more likely to be a midseason seller than a buyer — and it won’t veer off that course unless it starts winning at an impressive clip.
As a result, finding the offensive boost the Blue Jays need so desperately is almost certain a matter of getting improved production in-house. Some of that should happen organically with the players who are getting penciled into the lineup on a daily basis.
But another route to offensive improvement that might be more impactful — and exciting for fans tired of the status quo — is an influx of talent from Triple-A. That’s something that Atkins noted on Saturday, saying the team ‘had a lot of good players there’ while at the same time questioning their fit in the team’s lineup.
That may sound vague, but it’s rather clear who Atkins is referring to because the top-5 Buffalo Bisons players by OPS are also five of the six position players at Triple-A on Toronto’s 40-man roster — the other being third catcher Brian Serven who won’t be recalled unless there’s an injury.
Below is a summary of the players who could be called upon to improve the Blue Jays offence as 2024 goes on, and a look at how likely they are to make an impact.
AAA stats: .316/.438/.456 in 208 plate appearances with 2 home runs and a 140 wRC+
Average FanGraphs projection: .253/.340/.372 with a 108 wRC+
Positional fit: The fact the Horwitz profiles as a 1B/DH is his biggest obstacle towards making a big-league impact.There’s an argument to be made that he’s an upgrade over Daniel Vogelbach as a lefty pinch hitter/occasional DH right now, but it’d be tricky for him to find significant playing time on a club that employs Justin Turner and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Horwitz has played some left field in the minors, but he’s only started three games there in 2024, suggesting that’s not an option in serious consideration for the big-league club.
What’s the impact potential?: Of all the players on this list, Horwitz is the one most likely to hold his own offensively in the majors. The 26-year-old has dominated Triple-A pitching in each of the last two seasons and has some excellent projections to show for it.
He also produced solid numbers in 15 games with the Blue Jays in 2023, posting a 106 wRC+. Horwitz’s numbers against velo are good too as he has a .407 wOBA versus pitches 95 mph or more over the last two seasons at Buffalo.
The issue he faces is whether an offensive profile that skews towards on-base ability over power is one the Blue Jays want to feature in their 1B/DH slots — particularly considering the team lacks power.
Although his projections are solid, it’s also reasonable to be skeptical about the scalability of his patience because big-league pitchers are better at attacking the zone than their minor-league counterparts — and his relatively modest power might not create enough of a deterrent for him to keep up a massive walk rate.
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