Guerrero Jr.'s baserunning error speaks to bigger Blue Jays problems

MINNEAPOLIS — With two out in the top of the fifth inning, Bo Bichette worked a full count against Sonny Gray and fouled off the sixth pitch of the at-bat, an elevated fastball.

George Springer was at third base, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was at second. With two runners in scoring position, a single would tie the score in a must-win game for the Toronto Blue Jays. And Bichette, who has more hits than anyone in the American League over the last three seasons, was as good a bet as anyone to deliver against Gray, the three-time all-star.

At shortstop, Carlos Correa had other ideas. Early in the game he had realized the Target Field crowd was loud, so he approached Gray in the dugout between innings. Because the fans were making so much noise, the Blue Jays couldn’t hear third base coach Luis Rivera yell at them to get back.

“I told him there were some free outs on the bases,” Correa recalled. “He was like ‘what do you mean?’ I'm like ‘they're taking big leads; if you look at me I'll give you a sign.’”

With Guerrero floating off second base, and Bichette awaiting a seventh pitch from the right-hander, Correa called for a pickoff.

“Vladdy was getting a huge lead,” Correa said. “Obviously he was trying to score on a single. Bichette is a pure hitter, knows how to hit the ball the other way, knows how to find holes, always pretty much leading the league in hits.”

“I'm waiting for it to unfold,” Gray recalled. “When I turn, I see Carlos at the bag and I see Vladdy off the bag a decent amount. So I turn, give the ball to Carlos. Carlos catches it and makes an incredible tag.”

With that, the Minnesota Twins eliminated a threat on their way to a series win over the Blue Jays and a trip to the ALDS. But as perfectly as they executed that play, there’s fault on the other side of the field, and the mistake speaks to broader issues for a Blue Jays team that has yet to win a playoff game with Bichette and Guerrero.

Afterwards, as Blue Jays players parted ways for the off-season, Guerrero acknowledged the pain of the defeat.

“Very hard,” he said through interpreter Hector Lebron. “Very hard, obviously. It's a pain that I can't even explain.”

As for the play itself, Guerrero wasn’t expecting Correa to sneak up behind him, especially since he was the trail runner.

“Obviously it happened,” he said. “The play happened, but I mean, you don't want to do that. You don't want that to happen. But they made a good play on me and it just happened.”

Yes, the Twins made a good play — even a great one. But under no circumstances should Guerrero be drifting so far away from second base that he’s vulnerable to a pickoff.

It was telling that manager John Schneider, who has remained fiercely loyal to Guerrero all season, didn’t defend his baserunning.

“We can all look at each other in the face and say collectively we fell short of executing what we wanted to do,” Schneider said. “It's not for a lack of information or prep (but) in that moment, that can't happen.”

From his perspective at third base, Springer was forgiving of his younger teammate.

“A good play by them,” Springer said. “It's two guys that played at this level (and) have been in these moments. It's just a good play, and I don't blame Vladdy or anything like that. He was doing his best to score on anything, so hats off to them.”

Yet as Springer later noted, “you always want to expect the unexpected.” In that situation, with the game on the line, Guerrero failed to do so. The cost: the disappearance of the most promising rally the Blue Jays would see in a game they’d go on to lose.

Perhaps more problematic is the context in which this mistake happened. Despite beginning the year with promises to pay more attention to detail they were objectively awful on the bases all season, routinely running themselves out of promising rallies.

It happened during the regular season, when they ranked 26th out of the 30 MLB teams in outs made on the bases and 29th out of the 30 teams in stolen base efficiency. It happened in Game 1 of the wild-card series, when Bichette’s over-aggressive baserunning cost the Blue Jays. And it happened in Game 2 with Guerrero.

And sure, you can and should give Correa credit for making incredible defensive plays on both days. But it’s no secret that he’s a strong defensive shortstop. Why test him? Especially when you’re trailing. The risk is simply not worth the reward.

But zooming out even further, no game hinges on a single mistake, no matter how big, and if the Blue Jays had hit better, some of these plays wouldn’t be magnified as much. After all, no one’s talking about a pickoff play if your teammates hit four homers or connect for 13 hits.

And granted, Matt Chapman was a few inches away from a couple of huge hits this week, but that doesn’t change the fact that the Blue Jays combined for one run and one extra-base hit when their season was on the line. Entering the off-season, the Blue Jays need to find ways to clean up their baserunning (should be doable) and improve their offence (not as simple, especially with some key free agents departing).

Regardless of how the Blue Jays look to improve this winter, Bichette and Guerrero are players with bright futures who have far more strengths than weaknesses. Beyond their obvious physical tools, both have shown a willingness to turn weaknesses into strengths. Doubt these two at your own risk.

But still, they’re just two seasons away from free agency now. Each season that goes by without a series win represents a huge missed opportunity. Maybe this one wouldn’t have disappeared so quickly if Guerrero had accessed a little more composure when the crowd got loud and Correa started sneaking up behind him.

“I’ve got to get better on everything,” Guerrero said. “I'll take it as a good season, but I expect more from myself.”