Why Kikuchi haul looks like a win for Blue Jays

BALTIMORE — The first four trades the Toronto Blue Jays made this month made sense in a nod-your-head-approvingly-and-move-along kind of way. Their fifth trade appears to be something different. 

By acquiring right-hander Jake Bloss, outfielder Joey Loperfido and infield prospect Will Wagner from the Houston Astros for left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, the Blue Jays added significant young talent to an organization that needs it — and not just depth, but real upside, too.   

“That’s a great haul for two months of Kikuchi,” said one executive.

“Ridiculous,” said another.

As ever, the trade comes with caveats. Maybe it’s the present-day equivalent of the best trade Ross Atkins has ever made, the 2017 deal that saw the Blue Jays flip Francisco Liriano — another left-handed pitcher on the brink of free agency — to Houston for Teoscar Hernandez. Only in this case, it’s a starting pitcher who’s the headliner, not a young outfielder who'd go on to hit 129 home runs for the Blue Jays.

"Love what we got," said manager John Schneider, after acknowledging the challenge of saying goodbye to Kikuchi. “Loperfido (has) a really, really bright future. Bloss, I think, you can pencil him into what we're doing going forward. And we'll take another bloodline guy in Wagner. So yeah, I really like what we did there and I think it shows that we're we're going to get after it next year as well."

Of course, it’s also possible the trade will amount to nothing. Pitchers break. Loperfido and Wagner aren’t sure things, either. Stranger things have happened.

For now, we can say this: the trade looks like a coup for the Blue Jays. They’re pleased with it, obviously — they had multiple teams showing serious interest and wouldn’t have accepted an offer a day ahead of the 2024 trade deadline if they didn’t really like it. And even beyond Toronto, executives and scouts described the return as strong thanks in large part to Bloss.

“Definitely the best prospect they’ve gotten so far,” said one of the executives quoted above. “Should get big-league innings for the Jays right away. Middle-of-the-rotation upside with a plus fastball and curveball combo.”

At first glance, mid-rotation starter might not sound like an exciting description of Bloss. But mid-rotation starters are actually very difficult to find. That’s part of the reason Kikuchi was in such high demand in the first place, and why Houston GM Dana Brown was so motivated to get him.

At the time of the trade, Bloss ranked 92nd on FanGraphs’ list of the game’s top prospects while Baseball America placed him second on Houston’s list of prospects. If the 23-year-old grows from there into a mid-rotation starter in the coming years, this deal will be a success for the Blue Jays.

And who knows, he's 23 with a 1.64 ERA and just 31 hits allowed compared to 63 strikeouts in 66 innings in the minors this year. Maybe there’s even more upside here than his rough first few starts in the majors would suggest. Starting soon, the Blue Jays will work to make the most out of Bloss, who’s expected to report to triple-A Buffalo this week.

But the success of the deal isn’t entirely contingent on his success, either. In Loperfido, they acquire a player whose success in the upper minors has already pushed him into extended action with a first-place team. In Baseball America’s mid-season ranking of Houston’s top prospects, he ranked fifth.

Granted, Loperfido’s big-league numbers (.658 OPS, 2 HR, 36.4 per cent strikeout rate in 38 games) aren't nearly as impressive as his minor-league results (.933 OPS, 13 HR, 28.0 per cent strikeout rate in 39 games) but the left-handed hitting 25-year-old’s power and defence combo seems to give him the floor of a fourth outfielder even if he doesn’t stick as an everyday option.

As for Wagner, the son of Astros icon Billy Wagner, he’s not considered a top prospect as an 18th-round selection who ranked 19th on BA’s mid-season ranking of Houston’s system. But in 70 games with Houston's triple-A affiliate, he's hitting .307/.424/.429 with more walks (54) than strikeouts (33).

Defensively, Wagner plays some first, second and third. And beyond the basics, it’s somewhat fitting that the Blue Jays would acquire the son of yet another former big-leaguer to join Daulton Varsho, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on a team that recently lost Cavan Biggio. Like Bloss, Wagner is expected to report to triple-A.

Combined, it’s a significant jolt to the Blue Jays’ farm system, and it will likely be the biggest move the Toronto front office makes this summer as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios are all expected to stay put. While the Blue Jays continue actively discussing deals involving Trevor Richards and Kevin Kiermaier, the returns there wouldn’t be as substantial.

This is all happening in the context of a dismal season, of course, but under the circumstances, the Toronto front office is doing the prudent thing and finding a way to convert pending free agents into promising young players. Until Monday, the returns were respectable but hardly shocking.

But then the market for starting pitching was stronger than expected, and the Blue Jays took full advantage, turning Kikuchi into a trio of players who have a chance to become real contributors to future Blue Jays teams. If you have to sell, that’s exactly the kind of deal you want to be making.