LAS VEGAS — Last week’s photos of Bowden Francis and Tarik Skubal training together added a little intrigue to a possibility that must at least be considered given the Blue Jays’ recent history.
Could they pursue Skubal, the top free agent available? As we’ve seen over and over in recent years, the Blue Jays show interest in top free agents, sometimes pushing hard for them. They made serious offers for the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker and Dylan Cease, showed real interest in Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes and hovered around the edges for Max Fried, Alex Bregman and Cody Bellinger.
At minimum, they’ll lurk on Skubal, too. The question is, how far beyond that do their conversations go? While that answer may take a few more weeks to reveal itself, we can begin by taking a look at what we do know when it comes to MLB’s top free agent and a Blue Jays team looking to rebound from a last-place season:
What’s the fit?
It’s Tarik Skubal. He fits every team. The Blue Jays’ rotation isn’t necessarily their biggest need on paper, but Skubal offers the greatest potential impact. He’d be a great addition. Of course, the same can be said for 29 other teams.
Can the Blue Jays spend?
Yes. While president and CEO Mark Shapiro declined to offer specifics when he spoke to the media following the 2026 season, he said, “I don't anticipate there being any major fundamental change” to payroll. “My expectation is we'll be in a similar area of support and resources,” he added.
That doesn’t mean the Blue Jays will spend big this winter, but it tells us they can consider prominent free agents even with uncertainty over the upcoming collective bargaining agreement.
What are the Blue Jays’ ties to Skubal?
There are some connections here. He’s clearly friendly with Francis, as evidenced by the recent Instagram posts of them training together in Arizona. As a player who’s spent every spring training of his career with the Tigers, Skubal’s also familiar with the Dunedin, Fla., area where the Blue Jays train.
In fact, the Blue Jays permitted the left-hander to lift at their gym following a Grapefruit League start this March, so he’s more familiar than most with their recently renovated facilities. After that spring start, Skubal met Max Scherzer for the first time and talked pitching. The pitchers are both represented by agent Scott Boras, who also represents Cease and Kazuma Okamoto, among many others.
Clearly Skubal’s not going to make a decision of this magnitude because he lifted some weights in the Blue Jays’ gym once. Or because he likes hanging out with Francis. It doesn’t hurt, but veteran players have friends all over the league. All we can conclusively say here is he’s familiar with the Blue Jays’ training facilities in both Toronto and Florida.
What does history suggest for the Blue Jays?
To pull back the curtain on the off-season, teams and major agencies often open the winter with meetings at which the sides convey broad goals before getting into specifics.
Last year, those initial meetings with Boras would have touched on Cease and Okamoto but also on Bellinger and Bregman. With Cease, the Blue Jays were motivated to move quickly. For others, like Max Scherzer, they were prepared to wait.
This year, those initial meetings with Boras will include discussion of his many clients, a group that includes Randy Arozarena and Kaima Taira, two other potential Blue Jays targets. This much will happen, so let’s get it out of the way now. The Blue Jays are interested in Arozarena, Taira and Skubal. How could they not be?
The Blue Jays will often set up direct meetings with select free agents as the off-season unfolds. A meeting with Skubal may well happen before an expected lockout. If it does, that’s a sign of some mutual interest. But a meeting only means so much. Reinforcing that point, the Blue Jays met in person with Tucker and Framber Valdez last winter but didn’t sign either.
What does history suggest for Boras?
Though Boras will point to examples where his clients have taken less money to prioritize a specific city or team, he has a reputation for taking the biggest deal possible. And while some agents prefer to operate quietly behind the scenes, Boras is something of a showman, embracing the spotlight with pun-filled press conferences.
No one will blink if he says something like this at the GM Meetings in Las Vegas this week.
Many owners are hoping to canoodle with Skubal. But to sign Tarik, you can't be too frugal.
As with most free agents, leaks are hard to avoid. It wouldn’t be surprising if there’s a report in mid-November that the Blue Jays are, say, ‘highly motivated’ on Skubal. That’s a potentially valid story and may in fact prove to be true.
The question becomes: what does that really mean? Motivated enough to meet? To offer a contract? To be the high bidder on a record-setting deal? Or simply motivated enough to remain engaged in case conversations with the Mets and Dodgers fall through and there’s a win-win solution to be found. Those distinctions matter a lot here.
What will the end-game look like?
The expiration of the sport’s CBA gives agents a deadline to work with, and with a deadline comes leverage. Ahead of MLB’s last lockout, Boras used that pressure to help land mega-contracts for some of his players, including Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.
It’s possible — some believe likely — that he’ll follow the same approach with Skubal and others this time. The Dunedin hospitality was nice. Any conversations between the Blue Jays and Skubal are sure to be friendly this November. Why wouldn’t they be? Both sides have a lot to gain.
But in the end, a pitcher who has a chance to set free-agent records will likely be swayed by dollars and what those dollars represent (respect for his skill set and a commitment to winning). There’s a good chance that’s the bottom line.
And while the Blue Jays can be expected to participate to a degree, their interest may stem from open-mindedness more than a land-the-player-at-all-costs mentality. In fact, many believe it’s the Mets who are most likely to outbid the rest of the field and land the winter’s biggest star.
