With Spencer Horwitz on Blue Jays' radar, could promotion follow?

TORONTO — At a time that the Toronto Blue Jays want more offence, they have a player on their 40-man roster who ranks among the triple-A batting leaders. And while Spencer Horwitz just started learning second base in earnest a few weeks ago, he's had plenty of recent reps and the early reports are promising.

So, why not call him up? At minimum, it’s a question the Blue Jays appear to be considering seriously. And at this point, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Horwitz got the call relatively soon. He’s certainly applying pressure with a robust .332/.455/.510 slash line through Wednesday’s games.

Yet for now, Horwitz remains in triple-A, and as long as he’s still there, it’s worth considering this decision from a few angles, fully assessing the case for promoting the 26-year-old.

Fifty-six games into his season, Horwitz ranks among the International League leaders in doubles (21, first), batting average (.332, fourth) and on-base percentage (.450, second). Those numbers are the product of good strike zone judgment and an ability to square up line drives. He's also holding his own against velocity, with a .278/.435/.278 batting line against fastballs 95 m.p.h. or harder entering play Wednesday.

That’s a legitimately appealing skillset, one that allowed Horwitz to post a 102 OPS+ in his 2023 debut. Projection systems are optimistic, too, with both ZiPS (113 wRC+) and Steamer (119 wRC+) forecasting above-average offensive production.

The Blue Jays worked with Horwitz during the spring to access a little more power, and he has a modest four home runs to his name so far this year, but it hasn’t stopped him from being a productive player.

“He always gets himself good pitches to hit, has a good approach. He’s always hit and you don’t want to take something away from him,” offensive coordinator Don Mattingly said Wednesday afternoon at Rogers Centre. “But you do want to unlock the pull side. That was the main thing we tried to work on and sometimes that’s tough.”

While Mattingly hasn’t had the chance to watch minor leaguers swing the bat in person since the spring, he and assistant hitting coach Matt Hague were comparing notes on Horwitz’s progress Wednesday, and both coaches were encouraged.

“He’s doing his thing,” Mattingly said. “He’s been swinging the bat real good.”

Interestingly the Blue Jays have also had recent conversations about Horwitz with triple-A manager Casey Candaele and bench coach Donnie Murphy — another indication that he’s on the radar for a big-league roster spot. On Tuesday, Candaele and Murphy answered questions from big-league manager John Schneider about Horwitz’s defence.

“They've been pleasantly surprised with his work at second,” Schneider said. “He has a specific routine that he's doing daily to get better.”

That improvement’s encouraging, as Horwitz’s defence is one of the main questions that would have to be answered before a promotion, the others being how much playing time he’d get and whose roster spot he’d take.

A first baseman by trade, Horwitz recently appeared to be blocked by the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Justin Turner and Daniel Vogelbach, all of whom count first base as their primary position. With that in mind, the Blue Jays started mixing Horwitz in at second in May, and that's where he's started six of his last nine games.

In total, Horwitz has started 11 games at second, making one error, while also starting three games in left and 31 at first. From what Schneider heard, the results at second are good on routine plays. Now it’s a matter of learning the intricacies of the position — ones that are tough to practice, such as executing a relay or recovering from an errant throw.

“You can sit there and take a thousand ground balls a day and turn a thousand double plays,” Schneider said. “It's just the speed of the game and those (unpredictable) baseball plays.”

If Horwitz’s bat is ready and his glove is improving, the next logical question is whether he’d have any playing time in Toronto. When GM Ross Atkins last addressed the media on May 18, he described Horwitz as “a real alternative for us,” but said there’s a benefit to developing by playing every day in the minors.

With that said, Horwitz is 26 years old. We aren’t talking about a 22-year-old like Orelvis Martinez here. If a slight reduction in playing time can help the big-league team win, that’s certainly justifiable for someone approaching his 27th birthday.

“That’s fair,” Atkins said at the time. “It comes down to his impact playing once a week on our team versus his growth and development and continued improvement, playing every day and the opportunities to learn to play second and get into left field.”

Between first, second, left and DH, there should now be enough at-bats for him to play a few times per week. It wouldn’t be ideal to have a roster including Guerrero Jr., Turner, Vogelbach, Alejandro Kirk and Horwitz, but the presence of those players doesn’t eliminate bat-first players from consideration, either.

“No, I don’t think anyone’s ruled out,” Schneider said. “(A prospect's) goal is to push the envelope, which him and a few others are definitely doing, and let the chips fall where they may. But I don't think anyone's anyone's ruled out.”

In theory, then, there’s room for Horwitz on this roster. That leaves the question of who he’d replace. Perhaps an injury to a remarkably healthy position player corps will open up a spot, or maybe the Blue Jays will decide to move on from an underperforming player like Ernie Clement.

There’s a cost associated with removing someone from the roster, of course, but Horwitz’s bat could make it all worthwhile. And if nothing else his work in Buffalo is tempting the Blue Jays’ decision makers from afar.