The Toronto Blue Jays enter the off-season in an unusual position because their pitching staff is almost entirely built while their lineup needs significant renovations.
It would be a surprise if the team didn’t supplement its pitching at all, but it’s easy to envision Toronto entering the season with a rotation of Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi and Alek Manoah. In the bullpen Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Chad Green, Tim Mayza, Génesis Cabrera and Yimi Garcia seem locked in as well.
There might be some relief additions, but if the team gave another spot to Trevor Richards and had a competition for the final position they’d be in OK shape. That means when we discuss the Blue Jays’ off-season shopping options, position players will be the focus.
That might sound like an appealing position to be in for the Blue Jays as most teams have holes on both sides of their roster to fill, but when it comes to free agency it’s far from ideal. This year’s class includes far more pitching talent than quality bats, making it difficult for Toronto to improve an offence that scored the 14th-most runs in the majors last year.
Improving the team’s lineup via free-agent acquisitions will be difficult this winter, but it’s not impossible. Below are some logical options for the Blue Jays — minus Shohei Ohtani, who makes sense for every MLB team:
The exciting wild card: Jung-hoo Lee
Age: 25
Position: OF with complete positional flexibility
Bats: Left
2023 stats [KBO]: 310/.406/.455 in 387 PA with 6 HR and 6 SB
How the fit works: Lee is a tough player to project coming out of South Korea, but he’s an enticing talent for any team in need of an outfielder to contemplate.
The 25-year-old broke through in the KBO at the age of 18 and he’s posted a wRC+ of 132 or higher in that league in each of the last five seasons. His power output has had peaks and valleys, but his carrying tools are his ability to make contact, control the strike zone, and play excellent defence in the outfield.
Adding Lee would give the Blue Jays multiple centre fielders like they had last season, but the Korean star has more offensive upside than Kevin Kiermaier thanks to his superior bat control and plate discipline.
Toronto’s ideal starting outfielder might bring more pop than Lee, but his overall package is appealing — and if he pans out, he can be a long-term starter in a way that most aging free agents cannot.
The direct Matt Chapman replacement: Jeimer Candelario
Age: 29
Position: 3B
Bats: Switch
2023 stats: 251/.336/.471 in 576 PA with 22 HR and 8 SB — good for 3.3 fWAR
How the fit works: If Chapman signs elsewhere, the Blue Jays aren’t going to find a player with his combination of defensive excellence and above-average bat — but Candelario is the free agent who would most easily slide into a role as a full-time third baseman.
While the veteran is no superstar, he’s a competent defender who wields a solid bat from both sides of the dish. Candelario has been worth more than three fWAR in two of the last three years (he has played for the Detroit Tigers, Washington Nationals and, most recently, the Chicago Cubs) and set career highs in home runs (22) and ISO (.220) last season.
He’s a set-it-and-forget it player who is young enough to count on as a starter over a multi-year span. Candelario may be a downgrade from Chapman, but he’s produced the same wRC+ over the last four seasons (110), and hit better than the Blue Jays’ incumbent in 2022.
Candelario would come significantly cheaper than Chapman — allowing the Blue Jays to spread their resources to other position players while ensuring a solid floor at third base.
The raw power boost: Rhys Hoskins
Age: 30
Position: 1B
Bats: Right
2022 stats [missed 2023 season]: .246/.332/.462 in 672 PA with 30 HR and 2 SB — good for 2.3 fWAR
How the fit works: One of the biggest complaints about the 2023 Blue Jays was their failure to put the ball over the fence consistently. Hoskins could help with that.
The veteran missed all of last season with a torn ACL, but prior to that injury he was an extremely reliable power threat. Between 2018 and 2022 he hit between 27 and 34 home runs in each full season with a fWAR that always fell between 2.0 and 2.3 with the Philadelphia Phillies.
Hoskins is no superstar, but as long as his medicals check out he’s a safe bet to bring some thump back to the Blue Jays lineup.
He would consistently tie up the DH position in Toronto, but he’d likely make good use of the position and should be available on a contract with reasonable term.
The Goldilocks outfielder: Jason Heyward
Age: 34
Position: Corner OF with CF utility
Bats: Left
2023 stats: .269/.340/.473 in 377 PA with 15 HR and 2 SB — good for 2.2 fWAR
How the fit works: In recent seasons, the Blue Jays have struggled to strike a balance between offence and defence in their outfield.
The George Springer-Teoscar Hernández-Lourdes Gurriel Jr. trio cost the team runs in the field, but last year’s unit built around Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho didn’t do as much as the team would’ve liked at the plate.
Heyward could make a more balanced contribution than the Blue Jays have gotten from their outfielders lately coming off a season where he produced a 121 wRC+ and +5 OAA across three outfield positions with the Los Angeles Dodgers
At this point in his career Heyward is best deployed as a platoon outfielder, and his 2021 and 2022 seasons were nothing to write home about, but Cody Bellinger is the only free-agent outfielder who topped his fWAR total in 2023.
Heyward has plus max power (112.7 mph), a good idea at the plate (0.53 BB/9) and the ability to mash fastballs (.689 SLG and 9.6% whiff rate against four-seamers in 2023). His diminished range means he’s no longer a Gold Glover, but he still has a big arm and good instincts.
The more flexible Brandon Belt-type: Joc Pederson
Age: 31
Position: DH/LF
Bats: Left
2023 stats: .235/.348/.416 in 425 PA with 15 HR and 0 SB — good for 0.6 fWAR
How it works: After a successful experiment with one San Francisco Giant in their DH spot, the Blue Jays could try Pederson to fill Belt’s shoes.
The veteran has a little more defensive utility than the ‘Baby Giraffe’ thanks to his ability to tread water in left field, which is a position of need for Toronto. Even so, he’s best conceptualized as a platoon DH like Belt was — considering he only played the field in 33.1 per cent of his appearances last season.
Pederson’s 111 wRC+ last season wasn’t outstanding for a bat-only player, but he produced a career-best max exit velocity (116.6 mph) and his Statcast liked his work at the dish across the board.
While his results dropped off from his stellar 2022 campaign (146 wRC+) in 2023, his expected numbers last season (.368 xwOBA) were almost identical to the prior year (.367 xwOBA).
Pederson needs to avoid southpaws to thrive, but within the confines of a platoon role he can be a difference maker.