TORONTO — The time to have fired Ross Atkins, if the Toronto Blue Jays intended to make a change, was last off-season after another less-than-the-sum-of-its-parts year, notably the debacle of pulling Jose Berrios early from Game 2 in Minnesota and the subsequent fallout.
At that point, president and CEO Mark Shapiro, still with two years left on his term, could have reasonably given an incoming GM a three-year deal, along with the security and runway to execute a vision for how to push the Toronto Blue Jays over the line.
But Shapiro stuck with Atkins then, which now that his own deal expires next fall essentially tied his hands, even after this year of organizational collapse. Because what difference-making executive is walking into a general manager’s job if his boss isn’t securely in place?
So, when Shapiro said during his season-wrap media availability Wednesday that, “If I felt there was a better alternative to run our baseball operation, I’d make that change,” well, there are a number of ways to consider the comment.
Regardless, the end result is that solving for the cluster of fundamental issues putting the Blue Jays in a precarious spot — the pending free agencies of cornerstones Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette; a lineup and bullpen in desperate need of help; a farm system unable to provide needed near-term impact; a $400 million stadium renovation to be leveraged just as consumer confidence in the front office is, anecdotally at least, as low as its been in recent memory — is all on them, for all the marbles.
Their 2024 bet on internal improvement carrying the club back to the post-season went bust. Their 2025 bet is that this front office can return the team there while also extending what looks to be a competitive window on the verge of slamming shut.
“We are definitively committed to this core,” Atkins said, shutting the door on any sort of rebuild as a possibility this off-season. “And I’ve said this to Bo and Vladdy, they have done very powerful things already, and they’ve done them as a team. They’ve done exceptional things to (try to) win the AL East and not enough to their standards, nor mine, and certainly not the fans, but what they’ve accomplished already is exceptional, and there’s a lot of good baseball ahead of them, and I hope it’s together.”
Hope, of course, is not a sound strategy. And while the myriad mea culpas from both Shapiro and Atkins — not proud of this year’s work, have to be better, need to learn, etc. — were nice, only a major winter rehabilitation can pull the club from its current depths.
Locking in Guerrero and/or Bichette would certainly kick-start that process and when asked if the Blue Jays, from a payroll construction standpoint, could extend both while also augmenting around them, Atkins without flinching replied, “Yes, we can.”
“We’ve had incredible support here and that is certainly a possibility,” he continued. “Now that doesn’t make it just happen because it’s a possibility. It’s extremely difficult to sign one player to an extension. Signing two is difficult. Building around them also still requires making sure that our farm system continues to contribute.”
The Blue Jays began 2024 with a payroll projected to exceed the first Competitive Balance Tax, or CBT, threshold of $237 million and they were expected to finish around that mark. Shapiro said the budget for next year is still in the works but he doesn’t “see it either growing or decreasing in a big way.”
Bichette is heading into the final year of a $33.6-million, three-year deal that will pay him $17.583 million and his injuries and down performance complicate an extension. But the time is very much now and the opportunity there to extend Guerrero, who is eligible for salary arbitration one last time and his 2025 salary could land in the $28 million range, give or take, after a massive 5.5-win season, as calculated by Fangraphs.
If Shapiro’s words are taken literally — “We don’t talk about ongoing or active conversations or negotiations” — some degree of discussions may already be taking place. All of which made his response to whether he considers Guerrero is a generational player all the more bizarre, as colleague Ben Nicholson-Smith examines here.
“I don’t know, generational player, what’s your definition of that?” he replied. “He’s one of the better offensive players in the game today. I’m not sure. Certainly he has the opportunity to be a generational player because of how young he is.”
Given that the sides either are or will be negotiating, one possible explanation for the equivocation is that Shapiro was being careful to avoid saying anything that could be leveraged against the Blue Jays. That’s not unreasonable, but what is he going to say if the sides are able to agree on an extension, one that is sure to be more than double the largest deal in franchise history, George Springer’s $150-million, six-year deal?
Semantics, perhaps, but Guerrero apparently working out in a gym Wednesday only added to the incongruity of it all.
Signing Guerrero, at minimum, is only the first step as there’s little point in extending him to be Mike Trout North — a superstar posting big numbers into an abyss. And it’s there that Atkins and the front office will need to make far more significant additions than they did last winter, when after the failed pursuit of Shohei Ohtani they landed Isiah-Kiner Falefa, Kevin Kiermaier and Justin Turner, each of whom was dealt at the trade deadline.
Atkins defended his front office’s record in “talent acquisition,” arguing that “our pro scouting and research and development group has been strong in that area.” Several free-agent signings back the assertion, led by the free-agent contracts for Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi, Robbie Ray, Yimi Garcia and Marcus Semien, but farm system depth will continue to be an issue into next season and the Blue Jays lineup hasn’t been the same since Teoscar Hernandez was traded after the 2022 season.
To that end, Atkins said “it’s on me to complement” the talent acquisition more effectively and “then it’s on us to deploy it in a way that is maximizing the group.”
The Blue Jays have been trying to do that for four years now, and while Shapiro touted three post-season appearances in the past five years and meaningful September games during that span, there are no post-season wins to show for it.
“This year was a bitter disappointment. This year was not good,” he said, “but four of the past five, the work’s been good. Still needs to be better. But the work’s been good.”
Whether you accept that or not, in the American League East the work needs to be great, and to manage against the myriad of challenges they currently face, the Blue Jays have to be even better.
Hence, Shapiro’s talk of learning and reflection and change, which ultimately means a front office that’s largely operated the same way the past nine years has to adapt and meet the moment.
“It starts with, we’ve got to be open-minded and I really do believe the group of people we have down there are not entrenched in their beliefs,” said Shapiro. “We need to completely reconsider the things we’re doing. That aspect of our organization is in place. There’s no one here that thinks they have it all figured out. There’s no one here that’s not open-minded enough to reconsider the way we go about building a team and putting a team together. That starts with Ross, he models that open-mindedness and it really is pervasive throughout the organization. I don’t have any worry about that.”
There are plenty of other things for him to worry about, as successful organizations don’t usually “need to completely reconsider” the things they’re doing. In sticking with Atkins, Shapiro is again empowering the GM who’s led the way the Blue Jays do things to successfully recalibrate them, and the accountability belongs to the president and CEO if he doesn’t deliver.