The Toronto Blue Jays roster-building efforts for the 2023 season haven’t been completed, but it’s safe to say the heavy lifting is done.
The outfield has been overhauled and the catching surplus has been sorted. The rotation and bullpen have been bolstered, even if there are still depth moves to make on both counts. The infield has been left untouched, but three of its positions are being held down by three possible all-stars.
It’s the fourth spot on that infield where the most intrigue on the roster resides right now.
Whit Merrifield finished 2022 strong, Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal are natural platoon bats who figure to get some run and prospect Addison Barger is the ultimate wild card.
The end result here may be a boring mix-and-match based on hyper-specific matchup hunting and playing the hot hand. Injuries could also take a lot of the decision making out of the Blue Jays’ hands.
Even so, for a team that will be low on spring-training positional battles, second base is the closest thing the Blue Jays are likely to see. Here’s a rundown of their options:
Run it back with Merrifield
Merrifield took the second base job and ran with it at the end of the 2022 season, hitting .281/.323/.446 in 44 games with the Blue Jays — good for a 119 wRC+.
The majority of that stellar production came in the last 14 games of the year as he hit .417/.431/.750 in the season’s final act.
It’s no exaggeration to say it was the best 14-game stretch of his career.
What Toronto needs to know is whether that stretch included any breakthrough he can carry forward. Before he went on that tear he had a 74 wRC+ on the season with a dismal 45 mark in a Blue Jays uniform.
You can’t totally dismiss Merrifield’s end-of-season production, but it’d be hard to argue that he demonstrated anything new.
The .333 ISO stands out, but it largely came off four home runs — three of which were hit less than 100 mph and travelled less than 400 feet. He pulled the ball a lot (52.5%), but not at an unprecedented rate for a 14-game stretch. His BB/K (0.22) didn’t suggest a positive swing-decision change.
Steamer is projecting Merrifield will produce his highest wRC+ in three years this season (97), a number identical to his wRC+ with the Kansas City Royals since 2019.
An outcome like that wouldn’t be disastrous for Toronto. The club should be happy if he’s an approximately average offensive player who brings a speed element and defensive versatility to the bottom of the lineup.
While that outlook would satisfy the Blue Jays — and represent a solid value on his $6.75 million salary — he would have to perform well above expectations to dominate at-bats at the keystone.
A platoon featuring Biggio
The idea of Biggio playing a significant role for the 2023 Blue Jays may seem unpalatable for many fans, but the statistical case for it is pretty strong.
When the Blue Jays are facing right-handed pitching, it’s apparent that Biggio is their best option offensively:
Player | 2022 wRC+ vs. RHP | Career wRC+ vs. RHP |
Cavan Biggio | 103 | 106 |
Santiago Espinal | 86 | 91 |
Whit Merrifield | 85 | 98 |
Giving Biggio the larger side of a platoon might seem like a significant defensive sacrifice, but the 27-year-old has always graded relatively well at second. Each of DRS (+2), UZR (0.8), and OAA (+3) have him in the black there in 1377 career innings.
A Biggio-heavy platoon could also be massaged into a more balanced arrangement if the utility man is promptly removed whenever he faces a left-handed reliever and lifted for defensive replacement late in games.
His reputation for struggles against high-velocity pitchers could have him sit in certain matchups as well.
Biggio can be counted on to be approximately average at the plate and in the field when Toronto is facing right-handed pitchers, which is an appealing floor.
Merrifield and Espinal are both more exciting against southpaws than he is against righties, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a valid option for the heavy side of a platoon.
The Barger wild card
Barger is so far from a proven commodity that it’s possible you’re reading his name for the first time in this article.
That’s valid considering he’s a former sixth-round pick who hasn’t spent any time at the top of prospect lists. Despite his lack of pedigree, Barger looked like a piece of the Blue Jays’ future in 2022 moving all the way from Single-A to Triple-A in his age-22 season.
Across those three levels he hit .308/.378/.555 with 26 home runs. He never looked out of his depth, producing a .355/.444/.677 line in an eight-came cameo at Triple-A. It’s worth noting that he slashed just .189/.313/.321 in the Arizona Fall League after the season, but it’s fair to wonder if he ran out of gas after playing more than 100 pro games for the first time in 2022.
To be clear, Barger has plenty to prove. Barring a spring training performance for the ages, he’ll need to show he can thrive at Triple-A, and he’s posted eyebrow-raising strikeout rates for the duration of his minor-league career.
That concern is mitigated by the fact he has far more power than Merrifield, Biggio or Espinal — leading to statistical success in the minors that can’t be ignored. Steamer projects him for a .252/.307/.448 line at the major-league level in 2023 — good for a wRC+ of 113 that is at least seven points better than any of the other three.
Barger is low on experience, especially considering he’s played most of his minor league games at third base and shortstop, but he’s got some serious helium. His range of outcomes is massive as he could spend all year at Triple-A or steal this job by midseason.