LOS ANGELES — This certainly hasn’t been a how-you-draw-it-up post-season for pitching usage, with starters logging only 320 of the 653.1, or 49 per cent, of all innings in October so far. And without a doubt front offices around baseball are studying the widening gap between the ideal and doing what’s necessary, among other things trying to figure out when are relievers being pushed too far.
It’s a salient question after the New York Yankees, whose starters have covered 53 per cent (44 of 82.2) of their playoff innings, advanced to the World Series by winning the American League Championship Series in five games over the Cleveland Guardians, whose starters worked only 40 per cent (35.1 of 89) of their frames.
And it will be even more pertinent in Game 6 of the National League Championship Series (Sunday at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+) when Sean Manaea goes out for the New York Mets, whose starters have worked 52 per cent (55 of 105.2) of their October innings, while the Los Angeles Dodgers counter with a bullpen day that will further drive down their 44 per cent (39 of 88) split.
“I think every year is different and teams build their teams accordingly, whether it’s with starters, bullpen,” said Mets manager Carlos Mendoza. “But the one thing we’ve seen this year is that guys will get tired. So the importance of starting pitching, it’s there. You need guys that give you length — it’s hard to ask guys every day for 15, 16 outs. That’s hard. And that’s the importance of starting pitching.
“Again, a lot of different teams are built a lot of different ways. We’ve got some starters. But then there are teams that they’ve got some elite bullpen arms.”
Count the Guardians in that camp, but they’re a fascinating case study in whether they not only demanded too much of their relievers physically, but also in exposing them too often to opponents in a short span. Seven Cleveland relievers appeared at least three times in the series compared to four for the Yankees, although New York’s Tim Hill appeared in each of the five games and closer Luke Weaver led all relievers with six innings in four outings.
There’s been better balance in the NLCS, where Reed Garrett of the Mets is the only reliever to be used three times so far. But just as the effectiveness of starters wanes in their third time through the order, the same effect can exist within a series, when hitters can cheat to an approach or better guess at a game plan.
“A lot of that is felt in the moment within each at-bat,” said Dodgers reliever Evan Phillips, who’s appeared once so far in the NLS. “Thankfully from our game-planning point of view we have more than one way to get a guy out. So whether or not we showed our whole game plan to one guy, it’s probably unlikely that we did so.
“So we still feel confident even if we faced a guy a couple times or back-to-back days, whatever it may be,” he added. “We still feel confident in our plan.”
The Dodgers, of course, are running their third bullpen game of the post-season out of necessity due to a rotation-plus worth of starters out injured. They are very much making the best of who they have, just as other teams are trying to do with their deployment.
After all, in the most important games of the season, it only makes sense to concentrate innings among a team’s most-trusted pitchers.
“I don’t think there’s a manager that would say that they want to their starter to face 19 or 20 hitters in a game,” said Dodgers manager Dave Roberts. “But once the game is happening in real time, you’ve just got to weigh which option is better.
“But absolutely I’d love to have John Smoltz or Greg Maddux go seven shutout or throw a one-hitter or two-hitter in a World Series game. That would be great.”
TEOSCAR’S TIMING: Let’s get weird with small sample sizes — Teoscar Hernandez has an on-base percentage of .280 in the NLCS despite being 0-for-18 thus far. That’s thanks to his seven walks, which have helped the Dodgers extend innings and allowed him to cross the plate twice, finding ways to contribute even when he isn’t at his best at the plate.
“This is my first long post-season and in my mind, do whatever it takes to help the team win that day,” Hernandez said of how he’s different as a player in this October compared to his two post-season trips with the Toronto Blue Jays. “It doesn’t matter how my performance is, if I get a hit, I get a hit. I don’t think about my numbers or my personal stats. Just everything for me is about winning. And I want to do whatever it takes to help the team win.”
Hernandez did that in a big way during the five-game division series win over the San Diego Padres, when he hit two homers and drove in seven runs.
The difference against the Mets is “they’re just bullying him with the heater,” said Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, who expects Manaea “is going to do the same thing” in Game 6. “If you can’t hit the fastball and move it forward, you just expose yourself up to cheat, to get to spin and that’s the main thing.”
These are Hernandez’s first post-season games since the Blue Jays’ collapse in a Game 2 loss to the Seattle Mariners in the 2022 wild-card, when he remembers “a lot of good things, a lot of bad things in that game.”
“Obviously I got the two homers. We got a really big lead going into the sixth and then everything fell down,” he said. “We had the (George) Springer injury that day. And then after that, everything just (fell apart). But you learn from things, good or bad. It makes you better if you take the things that happen to you the right way. It makes you stronger and better for the next opportunity that you get.”
FREEMAN HURTING: Roberts said a decision on whether Freddie Freeman starts in Game 6 will come Sunday when the Dodgers assess how he’s feeling after his arrival to the stadium.
That lefty Manaea is starting for the Mets “is part of the math, certainly,” Roberts added, but so, too, is that “I do think the swing is compromised because of the ankle and he’s grinding. As I sit here, I’m expecting him in there. But if it’s costly for him or us we’ll certainly pivot.”
Freeman has played through a sprained right ankle he rolled during a Sept. 26 regular-season game and has looked increasingly uncomfortable as the NLCS has rolled on, leading to debate over whether he’s helping or hurting the Dodgers by playing.
“If you’re looking at the results of the last handful of at-bats, you could argue that point. But I could also argue that him doing whatever he can to be on the field and to post, I think, speaks loudly in that clubhouse,” said Roberts. “So then the decision is, net-sum, what makes the most sense to win (Game 6). And that’s the decision we’ll make together. But I’m not going to compromise his health or certainly winning a game if he’s not mentally and/or physically ready to go.”