For the most part, the Toronto Blue Jays took care of business when they needed to, going 10-5 over a 15-game stretch against teams below .500 — but now comes the heavy lifting.
After sweeping the Kansas City Royals over the weekend, the Blue Jays enter Monday in the second American League wild card spot, one game up on the Seattle Mariners and 1.5 games ahead of the Texas Rangers.
As Toronto transitions from the “easy” portion of its schedule to a three-week sprint to the finish line, it’s those very Rangers that come to Rogers Centre for a four-game series, looking to make up the ground they lost over the past two weeks.
There is a very real chance that a series loss for either the Blue Jays or Rangers could be disastrous for either team’s playoff odds. While the two teams meet in Toronto, the Mariners and Houston Astros will be taking on the Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics, respectively, giving them a chance to gain ground in the playoff race.
With three weeks left in MLB’s regular season, here’s how this week’s slate of games could impact the wild-card chase.
IF THE POST-SEASON STARTED TODAY
No. 1 and AL East-Leading Baltimore Orioles (90-52): Bye
No. 2 and AL West-leading Houston Astros (82-62): Bye
No. 3 and AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins (75-68) vs. No. 6 Seattle Mariners (79-64)
No. 4 Tampa Bay Rays (83-55) vs. No. 5 Toronto Blue Jays (80-63)
WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
Both the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox suffered series losses over the weekend, essentially snuffing out whatever post-season hopes they had before playing on Friday.
While the odds of either club making the playoffs were already below five per cent, both the Yankees and Red Sox have enough games remaining against teams ahead of them in the standings that a late-season surge might have been enough to pull off the improbable.
But as New York and Boston consistently struggle to beat contending teams, the AL wild card picture — now more than ever — looks like a four-team race.
LOOKING AT THE WILD-CARD RACE THIS WEEK
Houston Astros: This week may be the Astros’ best chance to run away with the AL West crown. Winners of five of its last six, Houston is set for six straight games against the Athletics and Royals, a stretch of games against the two worst teams in baseball. The Astros enter Monday’s series against Oakland with a 9-1 record against the A’s in 2023. Houston has scored 60 runs over its past two series, and with Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander taking the mound in the first two games against Oakland, the Astros should be set up well to continue their recent run of success.
Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays’ four-game set against Texas has been circled on the calendar for a couple of weeks at this point, and now that it’s here, Toronto has a chance to really establish itself as a playoff team. A series win over the Rangers would put the Blue Jays at least 3.5 games up with less than 20 games to go. Not an insurmountable lead, but a significant one, given Texas’ recent struggles. Over the past two weeks, the Blue Jays have been feasting on opposing bullpens, scoring a league-best 33 runs in the seventh inning or later over that stretch. In the same time period, Rangers’ relievers own a 5.92 ERA and have given up 17 home runs over 59.1 innings pitched.
Seattle Mariners: After ripping off 21 wins in August, the Mariners appear to be coming back to earth in September. Just 3-7 to open the month, Seattle is coming off three straight losses to the Tampa Bay Rays on the road. This week, the Mariners will get a chance to get back on track against the Los Angeles Angels, who have only won two series since the trade deadline. Once it wraps up that series, Seattle will welcome the Los Angeles Dodgers to town for its final series against a non-AL West opponent.
Texas Rangers: There is no better chance for the Rangers to chase down the Blue Jays than this four-game head-to-head stretch. They’re sending Dane Dunning, Max Scherzer, Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi to the mound opposite Toronto’s foursome of Chris Bassitt, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Yusei Kikuchi and Kevin Gausman. A split in the series wouldn’t allow the Rangers to gain any ground in the wild card chase, but it would give them the tiebreaker over the Blue Jays, should the two teams finish with the same record.
Boston Red Sox/New York Yankees: While the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry doesn’t generate the same energy of the early 2000s, this week’s four-game series between the two teams could offer some playoff intensity. With both sides fighting to just stay in the race, neither club can afford a series loss. Boston swept New York in a three-game series in the middle of August and has owned the season series, winning eight of the nine games while outscoring the Yankees 54-22.
PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT
Here is what FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting, as of Monday morning, in terms of playoff odds among AL teams battling for post-season spots.
Baltimore’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Baltimore’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%
Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 98.9% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 98.0%
Minnesota’s FanGraphs odds: 99.6% | Minnesota’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.4%
Tampa Bay’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Tampa Bay’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%
Toronto’s FanGraphs odds: 79.2% | Toronto’s Baseball Reference odds: 82.5%
Seattle’s FanGraphs odds: 68.6% | Seattle’s Baseball Reference odds: 69.4%
Texas’ FanGraphs odds: 51.9% | Texas’ Baseball Reference odds: 48.3%
Boston’s FanGraphs odds: 1.3% | Boston’s Baseball Reference odds: 1.5%
New York’s FanGraphs odds: 0.1% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: 0.3%