As the Toronto Blue Jays enter their final three games of the regular season, a shot at clinching a wild-card spot has never been closer.
Despite dropping two of three to the New York Yankees this week, the Blue Jays need just one more win and one Seattle Mariners loss to extend play into October. Of course, there are other permutations that could get Toronto to the post-season, but that is the easiest path.
To get that one win, the Blue Jays will have to take down a Tampa Bay Rays team that doesn’t have much left to play for before hosting a wild-card series. The Rays are locked into the top wild-card spot after the Baltimore Orioles clinched the AL East on Thursday.
With a Toronto versus Tampa Bay playoff series a very real possibility, there is a chance that the Rays will look to hide some of their top arms to keep the Blue Jays from getting too familiar — if they aren’t already — with some of their pitchers.
Meanwhile, the Mariners will continue their series with the Texas Rangers this weekend after putting together a ninth-inning comeback punctuated by J.P. Crawford’s two-out walk-off hit. With Seattle sitting at 86 wins, it will likely need to reverse its September fortunes and take three of four or sweep the Rangers to earn a playoff berth.
As the 162-game schedule officially comes to a close this weekend, the drama couldn’t be higher in the AL wild-card chase.
IF THE POST-SEASON STARTED TODAY
No. 1 and AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles (100-59): Bye
No. 2 and AL West-leading Texas Rangers (89-70): Bye
No. 3 and AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins (85-74) vs. No. 6 Houston Astros (87-72)
No. 4 Tampa Bay Rays (97-62) vs. No. 5 Toronto Blue Jays (88-71)
WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
With a chance to gain significant ground on their AL West counterparts — in the form of 10 straight games against the Astros and Rangers — the Mariners have come up short. They are just 2-5 through the first seven games of that stretch, and came awfully close to dropping the series opener against Texas on Thursday.
Seattle has come crashing back down in September after its record-breaking August. As a team, the Mariners have a .706 OPS this month, ranking 21st in baseball. They have also struggled on the mound, posting a 4.45 ERA, which is compounded by the league-worst 42 home runs they’ve given up in September.
It might be more realistic for Seattle to catch Houston than Toronto in the wild-card race at this point. Because they own the tiebreaker over the Astros, the Mariners would just need to gain one game in the standings to end Houston’s six-year playoff streak.
LOOKING AT THE WILD-CARD RACE THIS WEEKEND
Texas Rangers: Texas is one win away — and an Astros loss — from clinching its first AL West title since 2016. Since their 4-16 stretch between the end of August and the beginning of September, the Rangers have won five of their six series and are tied with the Atlanta Braves for the most runs scored in MLB. Over that same timeframe, their pitching has been just good enough to get the job done. The bullpen has been an issue all season for Texas, but as it continues to move some of its starters into bulk relief roles, it might look a little bit more like a group that could handle a post-season setting. As they look to lock down a division crown and bye into the ALCS, the Rangers are lined up to send Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray and Cody Bradford to the mound in Seattle.
Toronto Blue Jays: After taking two of three, and coming one out away from sweeping the Rays a week ago, the Blue Jays will look to carry some of that momentum into this weekend at Rogers Centre. Goal No. 1 for the weekend will, of couese, be to clinch a playoff spot, but with Kevin Gausman’s spot in the rotation coming up Sunday and Game 1 of the wild card going on Tuesday, there will need to be a sense of urgency in getting the job done either Friday or Saturday. Outside of Aaron Civale’s start on Friday, the Rays haven’t officially announced their rotation yet, but they are lined up to have Zack Littell and Taj Bradley pitch on Saturday and Sunday.
Houston Astros: After going into Seattle and taking two of three, the Astros are in position to control their own destiny. They head to Arizona this weekend but will have to take down a Diamondbacks team in the middle of its own wild-card fight. Arizona is one win away from clinching a post-season berth, and it’s giving Zac Gallen the ball Friday to try to get it done. While they were able to shut down the Mariners, Astros’ pitchers have struggled in September. Framber Valdez is the only Houston starter with an ERA below 4.00 this month, and he’s not scheduled to pitch this weekend. With J.P. France and Justin Verlander listed as the probable pitchers for Friday and Saturday, the Astros will hope to continue their strong road performance this season and lock down a playoff spot, no matter the result between the Rangers and Mariners.
Seattle Mariners: Despite Crawford’s game-saving swing helping the Mariners keep pace in the wild-card race, they are still in tough to earn a second-consecutive playoff appearance. Now just 10-16 in September, Seattle will need things to fall perfectly over the final three games. One advantage the Mariners have is that they hold the tiebreaker over both the Blue Jays and Astros, meaning they need to catch only one of those two teams. However, that would require either Toronto losing at least twice to Tampa Bay or Houston losing at least once to Arizona. Both are certainly possible, but you never want to rely on the out-of-town scoreboard to help you out in the final week. With that said, Seattle has Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo and George Kirby pitching over the final three games of their series against the Rangers, which sets it up pretty well to push for the two or three wins it needs.
PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT
Here is what FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting, as of Friday morning, in terms of playoff odds among AL teams battling for post-season spots.
Baltimore’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Baltimore’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
Texas’ FanGraphs odds: 97.3% | Texas’ Baseball Reference odds: 97.3%
Minnesota’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Minnesota’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
Tampa Bay’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Tampa Bay’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
Toronto’s FanGraphs odds: 93.3% | Toronto’s Baseball Reference odds: 94.3%
Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 75.9% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 81.0%
Seattle’s FanGraphs odds: 33.5% | Seattle’s Baseball Reference odds: 27.4%