Welcome to the last weekend of the regular season, baseball fans.
As October approaches, the post-season picture has slowly come into focus, with some surprise teams holding playoff spots and the wild-card series just days away.
The last time the Detroit Tigers were a post-season club, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and David Price were starting games against the Baltimore Orioles in the 2014 American League Division Series. J.D. Martinez, Nick Castellanos, Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera all homered for Detroit in what ended up as a three-game sweep at the hands of the Orioles.
For the Kansas City Royals, their last October visit ended with a little more fanfare as the 2015 World Series champs knocked off the New York Mets for their first title in franchise history.
Now, both AL Central teams enter the weekend just one win away from punching their tickets back to the post-season.
While we may be a game or two from settling the AL playoff field, with the postponement of two of the three games between the Mets and Atlanta Braves, Mother Nature might have pushed the resolution in the National League to a Monday doubleheader.
As they jostle with the NL East foes for wild-card positioning, the Arizona Diamondbacks didn’t manage to take advantage of the Mets’ and Braves’ delay, losing two of three to the San Francisco Giants, further complicating the next four days.
With eight teams already clinched and six remaining in contention, let’s take a look at how the playoff could be set this weekend.
IF THE POST-SEASON STARTED TODAY
American League
No. 1 and AL East-leading New York Yankees (93-66): Bye
No. 2 and AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians (92-67): Bye
No. 3 and AL West-leading Houston Astros (86-73) vs. No. 6 Detroit Tigers (85-74)
No. 4 Baltimore Orioles (88-71) vs. No. 5 Kansas City Royals (85-74)
*Royals hold tiebreaker over Tigers
National League
No. 1 and NL East-leading Los Angeles Dodgers (95-64): Bye
No. 2 and NL West-leading Philadelphia Phillies (94-65): Bye
No. 3 and NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers (91-68) vs. No. 6 Arizona Diamondbacks (88-71)
No. 4 San Diego Padres (91-68) vs. No. 5 New York Mets (87-70)
WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
The Braves were able to gain a game on the Mets by winning Tuesday’s contest with a 5-1 win, led by 7.0 innings of one-run ball by Spencer Schwellenbach and a three-hit, two-RBI game from Michael Harris II. They get to stay home for the weekend and host the Royals in a series that will have both clubs entering with something to play for.
The Minnesota Twins are three games back of both Detroit and Kansas City and hold the tiebreaker over both teams, so they are hoping for a miracle to overtake one and return to the post-season. The Twins are coming off a series loss to the Miami Marlins, dropping them to 9-15 in their September collapse. Minnesota will host the Orioles this weekend needing to sweep.
WHAT’S AT STAKE FOR EACH WILD-CARD HOPEFUL THIS WEEKEND
Detroit Tigers: With three games at home against the Chicago White Sox, Detroit can clinch with a single win. Cy Young favourite Tarik Skubal is lined up to start Sunday’s game if needed, but the Tigers would prefer to save their top arm for Game 1 of the wild card, if possible. The White Sox are trying to hold off losing their record-121st game and moved back ace Garrett Crochet to start Friday to give their division rival their best shot.
Kansas City Royals: Like the Tigers, the Royals have their ace — or aces in the hole — to get the job done this weekend. Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans are scheduled to start Saturday and Sunday in Atlanta against the Braves, but Kansas City has to be hoping it can secure a win on Friday and save both their top starters for a wild-card series. It won’t be as easily done for the Royals against a Braves team desperate to win.
Minnesota Twins: With the Orioles still fighting for home-field advantage in the wild card, they aren’t just going to roll over for the Twins. Minnesota has ace Pablo Lopez, rookie Zebby Matthews and Bailer Ober scheduled to take the ball in the series. Any Twins loss or one Royals and Tigers win will eliminate Minnesota this weekend.
New York Mets: Before heading back to Atlanta on Monday, the Mets will pay the Milwaukee Brewers a visit. Milwaukee is locked into the NL No. 3 seed, so it likely won’t be throwing everything it’s got at New York, but when the two teams met earlier this season, the Brewers swept the three-game series. Mets’ MVP Francisco Lindor was listed in the starting lineup on Tuesday before the rainout, so he will get to make his mark on New York’s final push for the post-season.
Arizona Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks will host the San Diego Padres in their final series of the season. After paving similar paths to open the second half, the Padres have continued their play as one of the top clubs in baseball, while Arizona has slowed down the stretch. The Diamondbacks are just 6-7 over the last two weeks, and have seen their playoff odds drop nearly 30 per cent since the beginning of September. If they fall behind the Mets and Braves this weekend, the makeup doubleheader on Monday could end up not being played.
Atlanta Braves: With the possibility of five games in four days, the Braves are taking their pitching decisions day-to-day, according to The Atlanta Journal Constitution‘s Justin Toscano. That leaves Atlanta throwing Max Fried on Friday and saving NL Cy Young frontrunner Chris Sale for its first possible elimination game. The Braves will weigh the results of the Mets and Diamondbacks each day. Arizona’s magic number is three, and New York’s is five, meaning the Braves can take things right down to the wire in what could be a wild few days between the three NL wild-card competitors.
PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT
Here is what FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting, as of Friday morning, in terms of playoff odds among teams battling for post-season spots.
American League
New York’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
Cleveland’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Cleveland’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
Baltimore’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Baltimore’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
Kansas City’s FanGraphs odds: 97.8% | Kansas City’s Baseball Reference odds: 98.4%
Detroit’s FanGraphs odds: 99.2% | Detroit’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.5%
Minnesota’s FanGraphs odds: 3.0% | Minnesota’s Baseball Reference odds: 2.1%
National League
Los Angeles’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Los Angeles’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
Philadelphia’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Philadelphia’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
Milwaukee’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Milwaukee’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
San Diego’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | San Diego’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%
New York’s FanGraphs odds: 77.4% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: 76.9%
Arizona’s FanGraphs odds: 60.8% | Arizona’s Baseball Reference odds: 72.8%
Atlanta’s FanGraphs odds: 61.8% | Atlanta’s Baseball Reference odds: 50.3%