Yeah, it was cool seeing Lane Thomas hit a grand slam off Tarik Skubal to win the American League Division Series and, yes, it was all manner of fun watching David Fry drop a safety squeeze to score a run in the at bat following a homer.
But, man: seeing the Cleveland Guardians advance past the Detroit Tigers with Jose Ramirez going 3-for-16 and Josh Naylor 4-for-20 is enough to make a guy wonder, you know?
There was all sorts of funky stuff happening in that Guardians-Tigers series. I mean, 21 pinch-hit plate appearances between the teams over a five-game span? The New York Yankees — who will open the best-of-seven AL Championship Series against the Guardians at Yankee Stadium on Monday (7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT on Sportsnet) — had 53 pinch-hit at bats all season.
Naylor is one of four Canadian-born players on the Guardians, along with brother Bo (both from Mississauga, Ont.) and relievers Cade Smith (Vancouver) and Erik Sabrowski (Edmonton). Naylor is coming off a season where he drove in 108 RBIs and he’s had decent post-season performances in the past, but he needs to put some fear into the Yankees in order to protect Ramirez. The good news? The Yankees’ only lefty starter is Carlos Rodon, while Tim Mayza and Tim Hill are their southpaw relievers. Naylor should have a steady platoon advantage, and he has hit Gerrit Cole hard at times — with three homers and two doubles in 25 at bats.
Naylor has a history with Yankees fans, going back to the 2022 post-season when he made a “rocking the baby” motion rounding the bases after homering off Cole in the ALDS. The Yankees won that Series 3-2, and when asked about Naylor in particular, Yankees manager Aaron Boone said: “Obviously, we have some history with a lot of guys over there in the playoffs.”
The post-season continues to break the Yankees’ way: no Houston Astros; an ALCS against a franchise they’ve beaten the last three times they met in the post-season — albeit in two ALDS (best of five) and a two-game wild-card series in 2020 — with a rested pitching staff and reasonably healthy lineup. The Yankees were 5-2 against the Guardians this season and had the fewest strikeouts per plate appearance of any Guardians opponent. Given the way the Yankees worked over the Kansas City Royals pitchers that, too, would seem to auger well for the Bronx Bombers.
Here are six to watch in the ALCS …
• Emmanuel Clase, RHP, Guardians: The Guardians must score enough to keep things close for there to be high-leverage situations for their closer, but I wonder if manager Steven Vogt wasn’t telling us something when he used Clase to get the last six outs of Game 5 after seeing him give up a run in 1 2/3 innings in Game 4. Clase only pitched two innings once in the regular season: a 9-5 win over the Yankees, wouldn’t you know. Seeing his near-perfect closer get rocked by Kerry Carpenter for a three-run home run in Game 2 — the first earned runs Clase allowed since Aug. 30 — was a shock to the system but the Guardians bullpen rallied to keep matters in hand and ultimately backstop the team to its Game 5 win. Look, if a manager isn’t afraid to ask a guy to drop a suicide squeeze in an at-bat immediately following a homer, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him be aggressive with his bullpen use, too, even with the Series a best-of-seven. Watching Clase pitch the last two innings of the deciding game after one of the best closing seasons in baseball history made me appreciate Mariano Rivera even more. He had 14 two-inning saves out of 42 post-season saves. Geezus.
• Tim Herrin, RHP, Guardians: Herrin (75 games), Clase, (74), Hunter Gaddis (78) and Cade Smith (74) were all among the dozen pitchers in the Majors who appeared in a minimum of 74 games during the regular season. Herrin appeared in every game of the ALDS. This is a trend, no? And given Herrin’s second-best OPS allowed to lefties, however Vogt uses his bullpen it stands to reason that at some point Juan Soto will get a dose of Herrin — or, vice-versa. That matchup will be especially telling if Aaron Judge continues his post-season wobbles. And speaking of that …
• Aaron Judge, CF, Yankees: I’m going to keep putting Judge’s name on these stupid lists until he does something. It says a great deal that a double he hit in the final game of the Royals Series in which he went 2-for-15 is being held up as some type of positive sign. I was more interested, frankly, in the five bases on balls he drew against the Royals, par for the course for a Yankees team that drew 27 bases on balls in the series. Judge’s takes as the series went on did seem to suggest that he was comfortable at the plate, and even if stubbornness or steadfastness isn’t enough to allow Judge to add the post-season burnish that is bizarrely missing from one of the games elite hitters, at the point we need to take the positives where we find them. Besides: at this point we’re all pretty much anticipating that head-to-head with Shohei Ohtani in the World Series, aren’t we?
• Steven Kwan, OF, Guardians: The numbers are stark. For all the celebrations of Ramirez, it is the Guardians’ lead-off hitter who sets the tone when the team wins. In their 70 wins with him in the lineup. Kwan has an OPS of .991 and has slugged 13 homers and 15 doubles while scoring 72 runs. He was 3-for-5 with two runs in the Guardians’ win in Game 5 (his 13 three-hit games led the team in the regular season, and Lou Brock and Tim Anderson are the only other players in post-season history who can claim three hits or more in three consecutive game) and he finished the series 11-for-21, breaking the club record for a division series held by both himself and Omar Vizquel. He missed by one hit the division-series record jointly held by Ichiro Suzuki and Edgar Martinez. His 10-game post-season hit streak is tied with Kenny Lofton for the club record. Kwan led the AL in average in the first half of the season, the first Cleveland player to do so since Lou Boudreau in 1947, but hit the skids in the second half, struggling with back inflammation that necessitated an IL stint in September, before rebounding in the playoffs. “He has a way of finding the grass,” Vogt said of his hitting style.
• Carlos Rodón, SP, Yankees: I just don’t see much that could tilt this series in the Guardians’ favour, but if Rodon spits out the bit in Game 1 the way he did in Game 2 against the Royals? Woof. Manager Aaron Boone has lined up Rodon to pitch Game 1 and 5 in part to keep the “rhythm” of his rotation in place. Rodon has scuffled a bit under the pressure of a six-year, $162-million contract. His 2023 was ruined by forearm and back issues that sidelined him until July. He made 32 starts this season but looked overwhelmed at times in a Game 2 loss to the Royals after Salvador Perez touched him for a lead-off home run in the fourth inning. He was done 2/3 of an inning later. His wife complained of on-line harassment — doing so on-line, of course — and, well, there is a dark part of Yankees history that has seen talented pitchers think themselves out of the Bronx. There is a bit of a gamble, here: righty hitters have all manner of trouble with Rodon’s changeup, but for some reason he has always been reluctant to throw it, using it just 13 per-cent of the time. The Yankees’ rotation health still depends on Gerrit Cole, especially considering how Luis Gil’s command issues ruined his second half, but in a seven-game series they’ll need another starter to step up. If Rodon can help keep the Guardians — who had the seventh-best OPS against lefthanded pitching in the Majors — in check, he can get the Bombers pointed in the right direction. Or at least remove some distractions.
• Giancarlo Stanton, DH, Yankees: Babe Ruth. Lou Gehrig. Reggie Jackson … Giancarlo Stanton? Yep. Stanton can’t do much anymore because of a chronic series of physical issues, and at times it seems as if just staying out of the way is his best contribution to the Yankees lineup. Except in the post-season, where he has an OPS that is exceeded only by those three other legendary Yankees. Stanton was 6-for-16 against the Royals, collecting three extra-base hits and a clutch home run in Game 3 that seemed to effectively stick a fork in the Royals. That homer was his 12th in 128 playoff plate appearances (Judge has one more in 216 post-season plate appearances) and leaves him second only to Ruth in post-season at bats/per homer. Stanton has 27 RBIs in his last 25 post-season games. Funny thing about the dynastic Yankees teams of the late 1990s: in addition to their beloved core players, those teams always seemed to have somebody step out of the supporting cast to play a role. Guardians Game 1 starter Alex Cobb has been tough on Stanton, so we might get an early hint about whether the momentum from the Royals series will carry over. Know this: he and Judge are going to be facing some nasty right-handed heat out of the Guardians bullpen.
JEFF BLAIR’S PREDICTION
• Yankees def. Guardians 4-1