The late-game matchups that will define the 2024 World Series

One of the things that makes the World Series so compelling is that it’s a mosaic made up of hundreds of individual events, only a few of which will live on in our memories.

Remember when Shane Victorino popped out to Evan Longoria in foul territory for the first out of the second inning of Game 2 in the 2008 World Series? What about Max Muncy’s two-out single in the bottom of the seventh during Game 4 of the 2018 Fall Classic? 

If the answer to either of those questions is ‘yes,’ you consume and retain baseball games differently than 99.9 per cent of the population. 

For most of us, each World Series is put on a dusty shelf in our mind characterized by one or two events that truly stood out, like Sergio Romo throwing a fastball down the pipe to freeze Miguel Cabrera and close things out in 2012, Madison Bumgarner finishing off a five-inning Game 7 save in 2014, or Howie Kendrick banging a ball off the foul pole to give the Washington Nationals a lead late in Game 7 in 2019.

It’s impossible to predict what we will remember from the battle between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, but a couple of things are clear:

1. When it comes to memorable moments, it’s the late-game heroics that stick with us.

2. Between Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Giancarlo Stanton, there is an absurd amount of star power in this series.

There could easily be some unlikely heroes in this World Series, but the most likely formula for a series-defining moment heading in is superstar + crucial late-game situation. 

Looking into the most important matchups each manager is likely to lean on late in the games ahead may give us a sense of the battles that could determine the outcome of this Fall Classic — and how we remember it.

Juan Soto vs. Anthony Banda

Banda is the only southpaw in the Dodgers’ bullpen, and at some point, he will undoubtedly be faced with a guy who’s hitting .333/.439/.667 in these playoffs and had a 174 wRC+ against lefties during the regular season.

That’s not an enviable task.

Banda’s primary weapons are his sinker and slider, which he throws a combined 83.6 per cent of the time during the regular season. The lefty is lucky that sliders were arguably Soto’s only weaknesses during the regular season. 

His run value against that pitch (-1) was his only negative on any pitch he saw more than 10 times, and he struggled against the pitch from left-handers in particular, slashing .176 and slugging .294 against it.

While Banda might have one good offering to battle Soto with, the Yankees outfielder is outstanding at waiting for pitches he can hit and should be able to handle Banda’s 81st-percentile fastball velocity. Soto hit .291/.423/.544 against heaters 96 mph or harder this season.

In Soto’s only career at-bat against Banda, he ripped a 111.6 mph liner to right field for a single.

Michael Kopech vs. Aaron Judge/Giancarlo Stanton

Kopech might be the bluntest weapon available to either manager in this series. His four-seam fastball averages 98.7 mph and he throws it 77.8 per cent of the time, primarily up in the zone.

Not only did Kopech allow right-handers to hit just .143/.277/.200 after joining the Dodgers in a mid-season trade, but his straightforward approach is precisely the best way to attack this duo.

When it comes to thwarting Stanton — who is slashing a meaty .294/.385/.794 — elite velocity is the key. Whether it’s recent regular-season history or his hot playoff run, he’s done nothing against fastballs 96 mph or harder:

Judge can catch up with elite heat, but Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is still likely to explore this matchup due to his difficulty hitting high pitches. As masterful as the slugger was during the regular season, he was utterly unable to drive pitches in the upper third of the zone:

Kopech doesn’t have pinpoint command, and there’s plenty of danger if his heater leaks down. But theoretically, there’s no safe way to pitch to Judge — even if he’s having another mediocre post-season. The best way to get him out is probably with high fastballs, and Kopech can deliver them better than anyone else in the Dodgers’ bullpen.

So far in his career, the right-hander has done well against the Yankees’ sluggers, as they’ve gone 0-for-12 against him with a single walk and three strikeouts.

Tim Hill vs. Shohei Ohtani/Freddie Freeman

Hill is unlikely to be the only left-hander on New York’s World Series roster, with the Yankees likely to have either Tim Mayza or a returning Nestor Cortes Jr. as well. 

Even if he’s not alone, he will be Plan A, considering he’s already appeared in seven of the club’s eight playoff games and allowed just one earned run.

Hill is a pure sinkerballer with a notable breaking ball or off-speed pitch. During the regular season, 94.8 per cent of his pitches were some kind of fastball. That could spell trouble for him as both Ohtani and Freeman were very comfortable against four-seamers and sinkers from the left side during the regular season:

Ohtani had a wRC+ 61 points worse against lefties than righties in 2024, while Freeman had a number 38 points lower, so getting these guys to face southpaws as much as possible is a good idea in principle. Still, Hill’s lack of compelling secondary stuff is an issue against the pair.

The Dodgers duo has had limited exposure to Hill in the past, going 4-for-12 with a home run off Freeman’s bat last year when the reliever was pitching for the San Diego Padres.

Luke Weaver vs. Mookie Betts

Betts isn’t a player you can really play the matchup game against. He has fairly neutral platoon splits, handles velocity well, and demonstrates competence against the vast majority of pitch types.

Sitting between Ohtani and Freeman in the Dodgers’ lineup could give the future Hall of Famer a couple of cracks at Hill, which could go well for him considering how well he fared against lefty fastballs during the season (.316 AVG, .434 SLG, 3.9 per cent whiff rate).

Things could get challenging against New York’s closer, though. One of the few pitches Betts didn’t handle well this year was the changeup (.163 AVG, .279 SLG, -3 Run Value), which is Luke Weavers’ most-used off-speed pitch, even against right-handed hitters. Weaver held righties to a .162/.253/.261 line during the regular season, and he has a better chance to hold Betts down than most.

Weaver’s repertoire has changed significantly since his days as a starter, but he’s had success against Betts in the past, allowing him to go just 3-for-17 with two walks.