With all due respect to Vitor Belfort and Dan Henderson, their pairing atop Saturday’s UFC Fight Night card from Goiania, Brazil is one rematch that really didn’t need to happen.
There are several bouts on the schedule between now and New Year’s Eve that people are looking forward to seeing, but this weekend’s main event isn’t one of them. It feels more like a match made out of equal parts convenience and necessity.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Watch UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Henderson Saturday on Sportsnet 360 at 8 p.m. EST with prelims on sportsnet.ca starting at 5:15 p.m. EST
On one hand, Belfort and Henderson remain big names in the sport and they have a history against one another, albeit under the Pride banner seven years ago. On the other hand, Henderson has lost consecutive split decisions to Lyoto Machida and Rashad Evans, and Belfort has been holding steady as a top contender in the middleweight division since returning to the UFC, save for his impromptu appearance opposite Jon Jones at UFC 152.
It makes forecasting what comes next for each fighter hard to ascertain. Does a win put Belfort back in the hunt for a title shot in the 205-pound ranks or is he destined to return to middleweight and continue patiently waiting there? And what of Henderson, who’s contract is up after this contest, is 43-years-old, and becomes more and more one dimensional with each passing bout? Is there really that much more out there for him, even if he were to win?
The situation with Belfort and Henderson also sheds a light on the current conditions in the UFC light-heavyweight division.
Once a weight class where holding onto the championship belt was a Herculean task because of the myriad of talented challengers constantly coming after whichever man held the title, the 205-pound ranks are now a mash-up of new challengers and fading veterans, ruled by a dominant force that has just survived his toughest test to date and still hasn’t hit his physical prime.
It’s time for a light-heavyweight State of the Division examination.
The Champion and The Challenger
Hold off on the “Gustafsson won that fight” chatter and let’s just acknowledge that Jon Jones has been outstanding since ascending to the top of the light-heavyweight division.
Even with his close victory over Jones, the most negative thing you can say about him is that he was in one really close five-round fight where he still retained the title. Not bad for a fighter that won’t turn 27 until July and already boasts a sterling 19-1 record with that lone loss carrying a heavy asterisk.
While many people wanted to see Jones rematch Alexander Gustafsson right away, the next man he’ll share the cage with is Glover Teixeria, the heavy-handed Brazilian who has earned five-straight victories since matriculating to the UFC in May 2012, and 20 consecutive contests overall.
Prior to a lackluster effort against an outgoing Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and a somewhat careless first-round knockout win over Ryan Bader, many were buckled in on the Teixeira bandwagon, but those two bouts – and his slugfest with Fabio Maldonado at UFC 153 –showed the holes in his game that many already envision Jones exploiting. Of course, few gave Gustafsson a chance to pry the championship strap away from “Bones” back in September, and he came awfully close.
There is no official date set for their showdown, but whenever it is announced, Jones will open as a massive favourite, as he should. Teixeira will have more than a puncher’s chance to claim the UFC title, but the more likely outcome is the king remains seated in his throne, awaiting his next challenger.
The Unexpected Rival
Gustafsson accomplished a number of firsts when he faced off with Jones two months ago in Toronto, including becoming the first fighter to take Jones down, and being the lone competitor to actually push the champion to the brink of defeat.
It was an unexpected performance in the eyes of most who anticipated “The Mauler” being just another challenger turned aside by the dominant champion. But in their 25-minute battle, a rivalry was forged, and it is one that fight fans are eager to see renewed in the cage.
The 26-year-old Swede has continually advanced his skill set since his debut victory over Jared Hamman and has the potential to establish himself as Jones’ biggest rival. Of course, it’s going to take a victory over the champion for Gustafsson to really move this rivalry beyond the rematch that everyone wants, but cannot be booked just yet.
The Wild Card
Daniel Cormier looked trim for his fight with Roy Nelson at UFC 166, slimmed down and not carrying as much “excess baggage” around his midsection as in previous appearances. In the buildup to the fight, he called it his last at heavyweight, confirming his long-discussed intention to move down to light-heavyweight to challenge Jones.
Despite an undefeated record and two good wins inside the Octagon, the former two-time Olympian won’t be able to move right to the head of the list of challengers in his new weight class. For one, he’s never made the weight in his career, and needs to show he can get there without issue, and secondly, there are others that have done more to earn their place in the pecking order than the man known simply as “DC.”
Had Cormier blistered Frank Mir and Nelson (or even just Nelson, really), the UFC would have a sizzle reel to use in selling the unbeaten former heavyweight as the man to challenge Jones immediately, but a pair of gritty decision wins means Cormier will need to collect a couple victories in the 205-pound weight class before challenging for championship gold.
The Dark Horse
Instead of an immediate rematch with Jones, the UFC initially aligned Gustafsson with Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. In a turn of events as predictable as the sun rising in the East each day, the Brazilian veteran was promptly forced from the bout with an injury – the third time he’s withdrawn from a contest in the last two years.
Replacing Nogueira in the March 8 main event of the UFC’s next trip to the UK is undefeated finisher Jimi Manuwa.
A late arrival to MMA, Manuwa has been making up for lost time, rattling off 14 consecutive stoppage victories in a little more than five years, emerging as a dark horse contender in a division in dire need of new blood. Should “Poster Boy” push his winning streak to 15, he — not Gustafsson – would likely be the next to challenge for the light-heavyweight title.
Gustafsson will be a significant step up in competition for the 33-year-old Londoner, but Manuwa has legitimate power and very precise striking, so counting him out would be foolhardy.
The Forgotten Contender
Once upon a time, Phil Davis and his training partners joked about taking a shot every time Jon Jones’ name came up in conversations with the media. In those early days of Davis’ time in the UFC, had they really been drinking with each mention of the current champion, the crew would have been wasted, as Davis was viewed as the biggest possible threat to “Bones.”
Even though he’s lost just once and holds victories over Gustafsson and former champion Lyoto Machida, no one seems to talk about Davis as a contender anymore. They rationalize his biggest victories – “Gustafsson was still green, he didn’t really beat Machida” – and forget that the former NCAA Division I National Champion from Penn State is also on the same “work in progress” program that turned his Swedish training partner and friend into Jones’ greatest test to date.
“Mr. Wonderful” could be tabbed to take on fellow wrestler Cormier for his divisional debut or perhaps be shuffled into a bout with one of the remaining veterans still hanging around the low end of the top 10 at this point.
The Veterans
Rashad Evans is still around, and will face Chael Sonnen in a bout that carries far less meaning and intrigue now that we know Sonnen is off to coach TUF: Brazil and eventually fight his latest “arch enemy,” Wanderlei Silva, at some point next year. “Suga” hasn’t looked the same since Lyoto Machida knocked him out way back when, save for his thrashing of Tito Ortiz, and even if he beats Sonnen, he’d need to look the best he has in years in order to start a renaissance as a real contender.
“The American Gangster” surprised some people by quickly submitting Mauricio “Shogun” Rua this summer, but we probably shouldn’t put too much stock in that performance. It’s a good win, but we’ve already seen Sonnen in the cage with Jones, and there is no need to see it again, even if the part-time host and analyst were able to string together three or four quality wins.
Speaking of Rua, it’s time to accept that the man that was once the most dominant, dangerous force in the 205-pound weight class is pretty much spent. He’s 2-4 since winning the light-heavyweight title from Machida, and those wins came over Forrest Griffin and Brandon Vera, who gave him far more of a fight than anyone could have anticipated. He’s a big name, but nothing more.
Unfortunately, the same goes for Henderson at this point as well, and a win over Belfort won’t change that. He’s regressed to being a one-trick pony in a sport where that kind of animal is nearly extinct. What’s worse is that he can’t even land said singular trick most fights anymore, which really limits his ability to win. Henderson has said he’s going to knock out Belfort with his patented “H-Bomb” this weekend, but don’t hold your breath – he hasn’t put anyone away with it since returning to the UFC.
The Others
Ryan Bader appears destined to a career spent between No. 7 and No. 12 in the rankings – too good for most in the middle of the pack, but not good enough to get by the division’s elite… Thiago Silva has won consecutive contests for the first time since UFC 78 and UFC 84, but he hasn’t exactly looked dominant in turning aside Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante and Matt Hamill… Wanderlei Silva beat Brian Stann last February, but is far more of a “special attraction” fighter at this point than anything close to a challenger… James Te-Huna stepped up to face Teixeira earlier this year and was quickly submitted, but the powerful Australian could return himself to the fringes of contention with a win over Rua next month…
Conclusion
Once a division brimming with young talent and skilled veterans, the 205-pound cupboard is going bare, in part because no one has been able to unseat Jones, but also because there just aren’t many young prospects emerging in the weight class… and there aren’t many out on the regional circuit either.
Bottom line: Get used to hearing the names Jones, Gustafsson, Davis, and Cormier dominate conversations about the light-heavyweight division for the foreseeable future.