The craziest fight week in UFC history culminates Saturday with the biggest event the organization has ever put on.
UFC 200 is absolutely stacked with intriguing fights from top to bottom and the main card’s star power is off the charts — even with the removal of Jon Jones.
With the help of Sportsnet MMA contributor James Lynch (who is in Las Vegas providing some coverage for us), contributor Paolo Go and Sportsnet Stats editorial coordinator Brandon Pollack, we predict what will happen on the UFC 200 main card plus give one preliminary card upset pick.
Here we go…
MIESHA TATE vs. AMANDA NUNES
Johnston: Tate by submission. If the champ manages to get out of the first round, she will grind Nunes down and eventually lock in submission on a fatigued fighter. I’m thinking either an arm-triangle or rear-naked choke.
Lynch: Tate by decision. Some are suggesting Tate is looking past her opponent because Nunes doesn’t have the star power of a Ronda Rousey or Holly Holm. But Tate won’t make the same mistake as Luke Rockhold or Conor McGreogr and come into this matchup overconfident. Tate will avoid an early flurry from the Brazilian and dominate with her wrestling.
Go: Nunes by stoppage. Tate is tough to put away but Nunes is unbelievably fast and strong. All Nunes needs is to hit Tate a few good times and the referee will jump in to save her before she realizes what’s happening.
Pollack: Nunes. This is the truest definition of a “pick ‘em” fight. While Tate is super durable, and while I think she has the skills to beat Nunes, I’m not so sure she will on Saturday. I’m leaning Nunes, but have little confidence in the pick.
BROCK LESNAR vs. MARK HUNT
Johnston: Lesnar by TKO. When this matchup was first announced I thought the only way this fight would end was with Hunt landing one of his incredible counter-uppercuts and Lesnar falling flat on his face. I’ve changed my tune. I think Lesnar will get the fight to the ground and unleash fury. It’s rare but sometimes pure power beats technique.
Lynch: Hunt by KO. Biggest factor here is that we don’t know what type of Lesnar will show up having not competed since 2011. Either Lesnar bull rushes Hunt, uses his size and strength to hold him on the ground or Hunt avoids the takedown, lands one of his patented right hands and puts Lesnar to sleep. I’m going with the latter
Go: Lesnar. Love him or hate him, Lesnar has one thing you can’t deny: Power. The former UFC champion will use his size, strength and wrestling edge to dominate Hunt on the mat and shut the haters up.
Pollack: Hunt by KO. Its tempting to pick “The Beast” in this bout, but his Octagon rust, combined with his disdain for being punched in the face will be his downfall. Hunt said he will “knock Brock’s face off,” and I have no reason to doubt him.
DANIEL CORMIER vs. ANDERSON SILVA
Johnston: Cormier by KO. Cormier respects Silva but he isn’t playing around. If Cormier gets Silva in the clinch, which he will, he’ll drop him with a right hand to the temple just like Weidman did early in their second fight before Silva’s leg break. You heard it here first.
Lynch: Cormier by decision. We know that Cormier has had a full training camp for this fight and Silva hasn’t. Expect Cormier to win the fight using his wrestling to control the Brazilian for 15 minutes.
Go: Cormier by decision. A spectacular finish is expected to come out of this fight but I think DC will play it safe against the unpredictable Spider and use his wrestling.
Pollack: Cormier by decision. He’s coming off a full camp and fighting a guy who hasn’t technically won since 2012. I see no way DC doesn’t out muscle Silva for all three rounds.
JOSE ALDO vs. FRANKIE EDGAR
Johnston: Aldo by TKO. From an elite-level-MMA standpoint, this is the best fight on the card. As long as Aldo’s chin isn’t completely shot, I see him landing a lightning-quick punch at some point that stuns Edgar and his killer instinct will result in the referee stepping in.
Lynch: Edgar by TKO. Aldo is coming off the worst loss of his career (13-second KO to Conor McGregor) while Edgar is coming off the biggest win of his career (first-round KO vof Chad Mendes). We’ve seen steady improvements with Edgar since their first fight and it’s hard to say where the Brazilian’s head is at right now.
Go: Edgar by KO. Stylistically, this is a bad fight for Edgar because Aldo eats wrestle-boxers like him for breakfast. But the Brazilian’s chin has been softened enough for Edgar to land a deathblow and avenge his previous loss.
Pollack: Aldo. I see this fight going one of two ways: The first is Aldo fighting like a man possessed, looking to avenge his embarrassing loss to McGregor. The second Edgar using McGregor’s game plan to hand Aldo his second straight loss. I’m leaning towards the former.
CAIN VELASQUEZ vs. TRAVIS BROWNE
Johnston: Velasquez by TKO. I see this fight going similarly to Cain’s fight with Ben Rothwell from 2009 with Velasquez simply overwhelming Browne with pressure and volume.
Lynch: Velasquez by decision. One of the toughest fights on the card to predict simply because we don’t know how much injuries have plagued the former heavyweight champion. Browne is coming off a controversial win over Matt Mitrione and prior to that, lost a one-sided beat down to Fabricio Werdum. Injuries and layoff aside, Velazquez should win this with his wrestling.
Go: Browne. Had this fight taken place a year or two ago, Cain would have steamrolled Browne. But the former champ may be a shell of himself and Brown, who is in the best shape of his career, will take advantage of that.
Pollack: Velasquez by decision. I’m torn on this one, but I think I have to go with Cain. I expect to see a hungry, well-conditioned Cain dominate from bell to bell and earn an easy unanimous decision victory.
UPSETS
Johnston: Thiago Santos over Gegard Mousasi. The Brazilian is one of the most underrated middleweights in the UFC. Gegard Mousasi sometimes has difficulty with rangy strikers and Santos fits that mould. I see Santos being a title contender sometime in 2017.
Lynch: Julianna Pena over Cat Zingano. Undoubtedly Zingano is the better fighter on paper and Pena hasn’t set the world on fire in some of her recent victories. But with that said, Zingano hasn’t competed since her 14-second loss to Ronda Rousey in February 2015 and she’s 34 compared to Pena who is only 26.
Go: Takanori Gomi over Jim Miller. The former PRIDE champion is long in the tooth but as they say, “power is the last thing to go” and one last highlight-reel knockout might be in store at Miller’s expense.
Pollack: Raphael Assuncao over T.J. Dillashaw. In 2013, Assuncao defeated Dillashaw by split decision. Since then, Assuncao has fought just twice due to various injuries, but I don’t see rust being a factor here. Despite Dillashaw’s incredible fast pace, Assuncao will walk away victorious.
