Those who say fights are all about which combatant wants it more, sorry you’re wrong.
Mixed martial arts matches are full of variables, and heart and determination can sometimes be difference makers late in closely contested battles. But when you really begin to break it down, stats are the strongest indicator of who will come out on top.
PROGRAMMING ALERT: Watch four UFC 166 prelims Saturday starting at 6:00 p.m. ET on sportsnet.ca then four more fights on Sportsnet 360 at 8:00 p.m. ET
At UFC 166 Saturday in Houston, fans will get to watch two of the most impressive fighters — subjectively and statistically — in the UFC when Cain Velasquez defends his heavyweight title against Junior dos Santos in their highly anticipate trilogy bout. JDS knocked Velasquez out in November 2011 to capture the title, but Velasquez pummelled JDS for five rounds at UFC 155 last December to even the score and take back his belt.
With that, here is a head-to-toe breakdown of how the UFC 166 headliners stack up heading into the rubber match.
Tale of the tape
Cain Velasquez
Height: 6-foot-1
Weight: 241 pounds
Reach: 77 inches
Background: Wrestling and kickboxing
Fighting out of: San Jose, Calif.
Nickname: No nickname
MMA record: 12-1
UFC bonuses: Three Knockout of the Night awards
Junior dos Santos
Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 240 pounds
Reach: 77 inches
Background: Boxing and Brazilian jiu-jitsu
Fighting out of: Salvador, Brazil
Nickname: “Cigano”
MMA record: 16-2
UFC bonuses: Three Knockout of the Night awards, one Fight of the Night
Striking & Work Rate
Not only is dos Santos arguably the hardest-punching heavyweight in the UFC, but the former champion is extremely aggressive and accurate.
JDS lands 5.46 significant strikes per minute with a significant strike accuracy of 49 per cent, while only absorbing 2.68 significant strikes per minute.
Not to be outdone, Velasquez has an even higher output than his opponent. He lands 6.33 significant strikes per minute at 58 per cent accuracy and only absorbs 1.56 significant strikes per minute. In fact, the champ has by far the best strike differential ratio in the UFC, nearly a five-to-one rate.
The x-factor on the feet, though, is dos Santos’ one-shot knockout power.
Dos Santos has 11 knockdowns in the UFC, which is the most in heavyweight history. And if he connects early, chances are the fight won’t last long-eight of his knockdowns have come in the first round. JDS lands 36 per cent of his power head strikes and we all know that it takes just one of Cigano’s punches to end a fight.
While Velasquez typically finishes opponents with volume, he’s not throwing pillows out there. He’s tied for second in all-time heavyweight knockdowns with eight and one of which was against JDS at UFC 155.
Wrestling
There’s no doubt here that Velasquez has the clear advantage in the wrestling department and it should ultimately be the main difference in the fight.
Before he began MMA, the champion had a successful NCAA Div. I wrestling career at Arizona State. Dos Santos only began wrestling after he started MMA, but he’s actually better than most people think. In a very smart move that could prove beneficial, he enlisted the help of Russian-Canadian Olympian Khetag Pliev to prepare for UFC 166. And he’s said that dos Santos’ wrestling is getting stronger all the time.
Dos Santos boasts one of the best takedown defence percentages in UFC heavyweight history, shrugging off 74 per cent of his opponents’ takedown attempts. JDS has been taken down 13 times in his five-year UFC career, but 11 of those were at the hands of Velasquez in their last meeting. In that bout JDS did manage to defend 22 takedowns, which is not only an indication of his wrestling ability, but also just how busy Velasquez is.
Velasquez has the most takedowns in UFC history with 27, while only being taken down twice himself – once, briefly, to Brock Lesnar and once, surprisingly, to Cheick Kongo.
Whoever can dictate where the trilogy bout takes place will in all likelihood leave the Octagon as champion.
Submissions
Neither is known for their submission ability, but both possess serious offensive and defensive skills on the ground. They rely primarily on their other weapons, but each recently received their Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts.
The chances this fight gets finished with a submission are extremely unlikely, but not unimaginable. Velasquez attempted an armbar in the second round at UFC 155 after an early barrage left dos Santos battered and dazed with a face resembling that of the Elephant Man. Velasquez displayed excellent instincts and positioning to lock in the hold and JDS showed solid technique and composure to withstand it.
Velasquez attempted two submissions in the first round of his unanimous decision win over Kongo at UFC 99 in 2009, but typically finishes fights with his fists. Don’t be surprised when the fight goes to the ground if Velasquez looks for more than just control. At the same time, he’s an intelligent fighter who won’t sacrifice position.
Cardio, athleticism and size
Cain’s cardio
Though he doesn’t look like a Greek God, Velasquez is without a doubt one of the best athletes in mixed martial arts.
In 2010, ESPN’s Sport Science performed a number of tests on the American Kickboxing Academy star. One of his hooks registered at 2,230 pounds of force, which was harder than any boxer ever measured in the Sport Science lab at the time.
The most impressive measurement, though, was his heart rate that maxed out at 167 beats per minute. That’s on par with elite endurance athletes and extremely rare for the heavyweight division.
JDS tempers his training
Dos Santos has been in several long bouts during his career- four have made it into the third round and he went all 25 minutes with Velasquez last December — and though he slows down slightly, cardio isn’t an issue for him. He trains hard. In fact, prior to his last bout with Velasquez it was scientifically proven that he trained too hard and it was a detriment on fight night.
JDS trained so much prior to UFC 155 that he developed rhabdomyolysis, a breakdown of muscle fibres that releases into the bloodstream and can sometimes be fatal. Heading into UFC 166, dos Santos has tempered his training and monitored his health through frequent blood tests to ensure all his levels are right.
No size advantage
Size and strength advantages actually have little impact on the outcome of fights. Historically it’s reach that is the most important advantage to have and since the two men have identical 77-inch reaches, size won’t be a factor at UFC 166.
Betting odds
Both men are unbeaten as challengers in title fights and the underdog came out victorious in the first two bouts.
In their first meeting dos Santos was a +140 underdog, but it took him just 64 seconds to prove the oddsmakers made a mistake. In the rematch, Velasquez was a +160 underdog yet he dominated the bout for 25 minutes. Heading into UFC 166, Velasquez is about a 2-to-1 favourite. Could that be a good omen for JDS?
Championship trilogy intangible
There have only been two previous trilogies in the UFC where all three bouts were for a title. Chuck Liddell versus Randy Couture and Georges St-Pierre versus Matt Hughes (the third fight was for an interim title).
In the case of GSP-Hughes and Liddell-Couture, the fighter that won the second bout (GSP and Liddell) went on to also win the third. If the trilogy factor repeats itself that bodes well for Velasquez.
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