The UFC 249 co-main event matchup between Henry Cejudo and Dominick Cruz wasn’t really on anyone’s radar a few months ago.
Cejudo was supposed to make his first bantamweight title defence against former featherweight king Jose Aldo, who was given the shot over higher-ranked contenders Petr Yan, Aljamain Sterling and Cory Sandhagen. Not to mention we hadn’t seen Cruz compete in more than three years after yet another lengthy layoff due to various injuries and surgeries.
But the unique circumstances around this event and the UFC’s somewhat limited options for Cejudo opponents – travels restrictions due to COVID-19 shrunk the list of potential challengers – has resulted in this all-of-a-sudden anticipated title fight at 135 pounds.
Cruz is the king of career comebacks. Back in 2011 he was 22-1, had avenged his only loss and held the UFC belt but several injuries that required reconstructive surgery resulted in him being unable to compete. He had to vacate his title and was out of action for three years. When he returned in 2014, he beat veteran contender Takeya Mizugaki in 61 seconds in the most dominant win of his career. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in training after that fight and was out of action for an additional 16 months.
He returned yet again early in 2016 to an immediate title shot against then-champ T.J. Dillashaw. Cruz won in an excellent five-round contest. He defended his title against rival Urijah Faber before being outclassed by Cody Garbrandt at UFC 207, which was something we had never seen before. That was the last time we saw Cruz in the Octagon.
During much of his latest three-year sabbatical, he has been rehabbing new injuries but he’s finally back and says he’s ready to be the champ for a third time.
Cejudo has fought and won five times since Cruz last competed.
The Olympic champion in freestyle wrestling began his MMA career as a bantamweight but became a star in the flyweight division, ultimately winning the title at 125 pounds before moving up and taking the 135-pound belt last June.
Both co-main event fighters hold wins over former UFC champions Dillashaw and Demetrious Johnson, however Cejudo beat them at flyweight and Cruz did so at bantamweight.
In fact, the way Cruz has been talking in the lead-up to this fight, he doesn’t consider the current champ a legitimate bantamweight and says his win over Dillashaw is more meaningful than a win over Cejudo will be.
“Realistically this isn’t gonna be as tough of a fight as T.J., I know that,” Cruz told reporters during conference call earlier this week. “I do respect what Henry’s done as a martial artist. You can’t take that away. But I do believe that T.J. is a true (bantamweight) and that Henry is a true (flyweight). He’ll go back down to his division after I beat him.”
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With all that in mind, here’s a head-to-toe look at how Cejudo and Cruz stack up heading into what could be a show stealer.
TALE OF THE TAPE
Henry Cejudo
Nickname: Triple C
Fighting out of: Scottsdale, Arizona
Age: 33
Height: 5-foot-4
Weight: 135 pounds
Arm reach: 64 inches
Leg reach: 37 inches
Stance: Orthodox
Background: Wrestling
MMA record: 15-2
UFC record: 9-2
Notable wins: T.J. Dillashaw, Demetrious Johnson, Marlon Moraes
Notable Accomplishments: Won gold medal in freestyle wrestling at 2008 Olympics in Beijing; first and only Olympic gold medallist to also win a UFC title; former UFC flyweight champion and one of seven fighters in UFC history to win titles in multiple divisions; four post-fight bonuses (one Fight of the Night, three Performance of the Night); currently the No. 3-ranked pound-for-pound fighter in UFC
Dominick Cruz
Nickname: The Dominator
Fighting out of: San Diego
Age: 35
Height: 5-foot-8
Weight: 135 pounds
Arm reach: 68 inches
Leg reach: 37 inches
Stance: Switch
Background: MMA
MMA record: 22-2
UFC record: 5-1
Notable wins: Demetrious Johnson, T.J. Dillashaw, Joseph Benavidez (x2), Urijah Faber (x2)
Notable Accomplishments: Final WEC bantamweight champion; first bantamweight champion in UFC history; four post-fight bonuses (three Fight of the Night, one Performance of the Night)
STRIKING
Cejudo’s striking has progressively improved throughout his UFC tenure, landing at a rate of 44 per cent. The way he threw down with Marlon Moraes and ultimately overwhelmed the dangerous Brazilian to win the title (which was vacant after Dillashaw, who took the belt off Garbrandt, tested positive for PEDs) was impressive and somewhat unexpected to see. Cejudo began having success against Moraes when he started walking him down. Moraes gassed out and credit goes to Cejudo for pouring on the pressure and wailing on him in the clinch to earn a stoppage late in the third round. That won’t be so easy to do against Cruz.
Moraes stood right in front of Cejudo. That’s never been how Cruz fights. Cruz is great at avoiding damage and interrupting his opponent’s timing because of his lateral movement, non-stop footwork and distinct bobbing and weaving. Cruz has the best significant strike defence in bantamweight history at 71 per cent compared to Cejudo’s 65 per cent defence.
Only 13 per cent of the strikes Cruz lands are leg kicks but it might serve him well to increase that rate and not only rely on punches. Moraes had early success against Cejudo using kicks to the lead leg while also fending off the takedown. On the flipside, Cejudo can throw powerful low kicks to slow Cruz down. Cruz has had multiple reconstructive knee surgeries and we don’t know how durable he is at this stage of his career.
Cruz struggled with Garbrandt’s hand speed and explosiveness at UFC 207 – which, by the way, often gets overlooked as one of the all-time great performances in a UFC title fight – so Cejudo being the smaller, quicker fighter could pose some similar problems. Cejudo’s speed advantage coupled with the power he carries can nullify Cruz’s herky-jerky entries.
WRESTLING, GRAPPLING, SUBMISSIONS
Cejudo has top-of-the-food-chain wrestling ability so he’s been able to dictate where his fights take place. In fact, he has only been taken down once in his UFC career. That was by Johnson at UFC 227 but he was only on his back for a mere 13 seconds. He’s never fought anyone who moves quite like Cruz does though.
Cruz gets many of his takedowns during striking exchanges when his opponents are off-balance. He relies on impeccable timing and elite fight IQ in a similar way to how Georges St-Pierre used to frustrate his opponents and get fights to the canvas. Taking down Cejudo at any point would be a huge feather in his cap.
Cruz has successfully defended 83 per cent of takedown attempts he faces and can scramble with the best of them. He has a height advantage over Cejudo and that leverage will come in handy when the two are in tight pressed along the fence.
In all likelihood, submissions won’t play a factor in this matchup. Cruz only has one submission win in 24 career fights and just a single official submission attempt in his UFC/WEC tenure. Cejudo has two submission attempts in the UFC but has never ended a fight with a tap, nap or snap.
CARDIO AND CONDITIONING
No one should be surprised if this fight goes the distance and if that happens neither fighter should slow down too noticeably.
Cejudo has only been out of the third round once in his MMA career but that was when he walked away with a split decision win over Mighty Mouse. Cejudo’s fitness is never in question. If anything he has more energy at 135 pounds because his weight cut is far less strenuous than it was when he fought at 125.
Cruz, who has long claimed that ring rust is not real and that it’s all in a fighter’s head, explained on the media conference call that he had been helping teammate Jeremy Stephens (who faces Calvin Kattar on the UFC 249 main card) prepare for his fight and that he was in decent shape when the UFC called.
“I was already training pretty hard with Jeremy, sparring him,” Cruz said. “Just helping him prepare, doing the same workouts he was doing and making sure he wasn’t having to train alone. That actually led right into this camp. I technically had about a six-week camp for this fight, which happened to be plenty enough to be in shape for five rounds.”
Cruz has thrown 885 strikes in his past three bouts and in each of those fights he was busier in the fifth round than he was in the opening stanza. Cruz has the longest average fight time in bantamweight history at 21 minutes. Suffice it to say, the former champ can go five hard rounds in his sleep.
BETTING ODDS
Cejudo is more than a 2-to-1 favourite, listed as high as -295 on some sites. It isn’t entirely shocking he’s the chalk considering Cruz’s layoff and Cejudo’s five-fight winning streak. But if Cruz is more or less the same fighter we saw when he was last active, fans could be sleeping on the former champ. If he does pull off the upset, bettors think it’ll be by decision. Cruz by stoppage is listed at roughly +1000 on most sites.
