Every division has its own ebb and flow – periods where things remain the same over a number of months, followed by stretches where the landscape changes dramatically. The UFC welterweight division feels like it’s on the precipice of one of those periods of significant change.
A looming title fight and numerous highly competitive, high profile matchups remain on the fight calendar from here to the end of the year. Individually, each is capable of having an impact on the divisional landscape, and collectively, they could usher in a new era in the 170-pound ranks.
With the first of those high profile pairings set to hit the cage Wednesday night — and another “under the radar” collision coming in the co-main event of the evening — there is no better time to examine the state of the welterweight division than right now.
The Champion and The Challenger
Georges St-Pierre and Johny Hendricks will finally meet in the main event of UFC 167 next month in Las Vegas. After a lengthy string of fights that felt very predictable – including one that almost had a surprise ending – this bout marks the first time in some time that a win for the champion doesn’t feel like an inevitable outcome.
Maybe that will all change after the opening two minutes of the contest if St-Pierre is able to shoot a double on the former two-time NCAA Division I National Champion wrestler from Oklahoma State. On paper, Hendricks has the credentials to counter what has been St-Pierre’s greatest weapon over the last five years, and a left hand loaded with dynamite that can change the course of any contest the instant it connects.
After years of dominance, it’s possible that we head into 2014 with two of the greatest champions in the history of the sport – GSP and Anderson Silva – ousted from their thrones.
The Next Three
Carlos Condit, Rory MacDonald, and Demian Maia occupy the three spots below Hendricks in the latest edition of the official UFC Fighter Rankings, and deservedly so, but each has a different future before them depending on the outcome of the UFC 167 main event.
Condit is the man in limbo – a former interim champion who has shared the cage with both Hendricks and St-Pierre in the past, losing to both, though showing flashes of brilliance and proving he belongs to any that questioned his place in the divisional hierarchy. “The Natural Born Killer” rebounded from those defeats with an impressive performance against Martin Kampmann in September, but could very well be the odd man out for the time being, regardless of who emerges victorious next month.
MacDonald has been deemed “the heir apparent” since arriving in the UFC nearly four years ago. On the night his friend and teammate St-Pierre looks to defend his title against Hendricks, “Ares” squares off with the resurgent Robbie Lawler in a bout designed to bring out the aggression in the calm, calculating young contender.
Winning his own fight is first and foremost for MacDonald, but once he and Lawler have cleared the cage, his focus will shift to the main event, as his future could be tied to the outcome. The British Columbia native is one of few fighters in the division that has yet to face either St-Pierre or Hendricks, and regardless of the outcome, if MacDonald collects a win over Lawler, the UFC could very well come calling with a championship bout agreement in hand.
That opportunity could potentially go to Maia as well, provided the Brazilian pushes his win streak to four on Wednesday night in his main event pairing with Jake Shields. The former middleweight title challenger has been a dominant force since switching divisions, returning to his grappling roots and collecting three straight wins against quality competition. Like MacDonald, Maia has yet to face either of the men that could emerge from UFC 167 as the welterweight champion, so a four-fight win streak in his new weight class could be enough to propel him to the top of the list of title challengers for early 2014.
The Stalwarts
Don’t expect Jake Ellenberger or Martin Kampmann to go anywhere any time soon. Both are perennial contenders coming off losses, but remain in the mix in the upper echelon of the welterweight division. They’re talented fighters capable of beating just about anyone on any given night.
The Surging Veterans
Robbie Lawler and Matt Brown are two veterans that have put together impressive runs of late. Lawler has earned consecutive stoppage wins after returning to the UFC following a mediocre stretch in Strikeforce, while Brown has strung together six straight victories to insert himself into the title conversation for the first time in his career.
Both have bouts on the horizon and both could produce a seismic impact on the divisional landscape if they were to keep their respective win streaks intact.
While Lawler has the aforementioned UFC 167 date with MacDonald, Brown will face off with Condit on the December UFC on FOX: Pettis vs. Thomson fight card in Sacramento. Each man will enter the cage as the underdog, but they are both more than capable of upsetting the apple cart, and turning the divisional rankings on their ear.
The Next Wave
What really makes things interesting is that just below the established, recognized crop of contenders rests a collection of fighters that have yet to ascend into the upper echelon of the division, but who could experience that breakthrough in the next six months.
Tarec Saffiedine departed Strikeforce as the promotion’s final welterweight champion, turning in an impressive technical performance against Nate Marquardt in the company’s final main event. Unfortunately, “Sponge” has been sidelined ever since, and the momentum his win over Marquardt produced has washed away. That being said, the 27-year-old is very much in the thick of the chase. He should get a recognizable opponent when he does hit the Octagon for the first time, and with his clean, crisp striking skills, Saffiedine is capable of quickly climbing the ranks and establishing himself as a contender.
Two other members of this group face each other Wednesday night, as Dong Hyun Kim and Erick Silva meet in the penultimate bout of UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Shields.
While Silva has generated far more buzz during his time in the UFC, Kim has the more impressive resume of the two. Regardless of how the fight plays out and who comes away with their hand raised, they should no longer be flying under the radar in the welterweight division, and could stand to benefit from a larger scale shift in the divisional landscape.
The Grinder
Despite the fact that he carries four consecutive victories into his bout against Rousimar Palhares on Wednesday night, no one seems to be talking about Mike Pierce as a possible contender. At some point, that has to change if the Portland, Ore., native keeps winning.
As much as he employs a “wear-you-out” approach in the cage that some (many?) fans find unappealing, you can’t argue with his results. He sports a 9-3 record in the UFC, with each of those losses coming by decision against former or current title challengers. As long as he keeps his win streak going, Pierce will remain the tough out few people want to face and the UFC is reticent to promote.
None of that, however, means he should be overlooked in this divisional breakdown.
The Wild Cards
As deep and talented as the welterweight division already is, imagine adding Nick Diaz and Ben Askren to the mix. The former is retired and the latter is currently a free agent, but both could very well find themselves in the Octagon in 2014, and each would be an immediate impact player in the weight class.
All reports indicate Diaz is content away from the cage, but you have to wonder how long that is going to last. At some point, you would think the competitive fire rouses Diaz from his premature retirement, and pushes him back into the cage.
Askren is hanging out in limbo right now, apparently contemplating joining Diaz in retirement according to Anthony Pettis. Because of Bellator’s matching rights, it’s feasible that Askren could sit out an entire year, just to get out from under their potential clutches. We know he wants to fight in the UFC, and we know he wants to face the best of the best right off the bat.
Eventually, the former Olympian nicknamed “Funky” will find his way to the Octagon, and as soon as he does he becomes a legitimate title threat.
Conclusion
Just like always, we’ll have to wait and see what happens – how these fights play out, what moves the UFC chooses to make once 2013 is wrapped up, who, if anyone, falls out because of an injury, and all that good stuff.
But even before all that takes place, it is plain to see that the winds of change are primed to sweep through the welterweight division.