Saul “Canelo” Alvarez is putting his WBA and WBC belts on the line for his weekend 168-pound title unification bout against WBO super-middleweight champ Billy Joe Saunders.
The pair are set to go toe-to-toe Saturday at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas in front of an expected crowd of roughly 70,000.
Alvarez has carried his power up several divisions throughout his career, but professional boxing’s top star faces a stiff tactical challenge in the southpaw Saunders.
Saunders is 30-0 as a pro and coming off a clean unanimous decision win over Martin Murray in December.
Alvarez (55-1-2) is considered to be among the top pound-for-pound fighters in boxing, riding the momentum of a decision win over Callum Smith in December and a stoppage of Avni Yildirim in February.
Saunders and his camp briefly caused a stir this week when they threatened to withdraw from Saturday’s bout if the ring size was not increased from the standard 18-foot squared circle. The two sides reportedly agreed to compete in a 22-foot ring instead with Alvarez insisting it didn’t matter.
Will the ring size controversy end up being a deciding factor in the fight? In theory, a bigger ring benefits Saunders who relies on movement and distance. It also could’ve been a slice of gamesmanship from Saunders. Perhaps a little from column A and a little from column B?
Here’s a bit more on the anticipated matchup with some gambling odds and prop bets to consider.
BETTING ODDS
Alvarez to win -700 | Saunders to win +450 | Draw +2000
Alvarez by stoppage -110 | Saunders by stoppage +2000
Alvarez by decision +155 | Saunders by decision +450
Fight to go the distance -115 | Fight ends inside distance -115
This is an entirely different challenge for Alvarez than when he opened as a minus-4000 favourite over Yildirim. That fight ended after just three rounds and while some pundits feel Saunders could be Alvarez’s toughest test since his two bouts with Gennady Golovkin, others aren’t giving the Brit much of a chance.
Legendary boxing trainer-turned-analyst Teddy Atlas said, “there’s nothing Saunders does better or as good as Canelo,” and it would appear oddsmaker generally agree.
Saunders hasn’t been in a fight where he wasn’t a massive betting favourite since his impressive win over Canadian David Lemieux in December of 2017.
PROP BETS TO CONSIDER
Alvarez by decision +150
Alvarez by unanimous decision +190
Oddsmakers have Canelo by knockout as the most likely method of victory, however Saunders is a southpaw and Canelo hasn’t faced a lefty in six years. This could result in Alvarez requiring some extra rounds to solve the puzzle and process Saunders’s timing, entries, defences and other tendencies.
Alvarez had some trouble with Erislandy Lara as a southpaw opponent but that was back in 2014 and he responded by brutally knocking out southpaw James Kirkland just 10 months after being tested by Lara. In fact, Canelo has knocked out three of the past five southpaws he has faced.
Over 10.5 rounds is a minus-155 favourite so oddsmakers are expecting this fight to at least approach the scorecards. Between that and the fact Saunders could be a fascinating stylistic challenge, it would not be shocking to see this one go to the judges. Those plus-150 Canelo by decision odds can be slightly juiced to plus-190 if you bet specifically on a unanimous decision victory for Canelo.
LONGSHOT PROPS
Plenty of fans placing a wager on the fight will simply choose between Alvarez winning by KO or Alvarez winning by decision, while a smaller segment of bettors will take a chance on siding with the underdog.
For those looking for a just-for-fun prop with steep odds, here are a few available for this fight…
🥊 Alvarez to win inside the first three rounds is plus1200 if you think the Mexican superstar is going to make quick work of Saunders. Alvarez has three wins of that kind in his past 12 fights.
🥊 With two world champions, an even number of rounds and a sport with a long history of questionable judging and controversial results, who’s to say a draw at plus-2000 is out of the question entirely? Alvarez has two draws on his record, including one with Golovkin in 2017.
🥊 Want things to get a little chippie? Both fighters to have a point deducted is plus-2800 for those who enjoy seeing low blows, punches on the break and other fouls.
🥊 The most shocking result possible would be Saunders winning inside 60 seconds of the opening round. Not only would a result like that shake up boxing’s entire landscape but at plus-25000 odds a $1 wager would return a $250 profit.
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