10 things: Raptors devastated, but hope remains for Game 4 if they choose to see it

Heading into Game 4 down 3-0 in the series, the Toronto Raptors have their backs against the wall facing the Philadelphia 76ers. Here are 10 things to know heading into Saturday's 2 p.m. / 11 a.m. PT tipoff that can be seen on Sportsnet.

1. It’s only human to feel devastated after that loss. The Raptors were bullied and bruised in Philadelphia, but they responded in Game 3 with a team effort in front of a raucous crowd. They got the fair whistle they had been campaigning for, James Harden fouled out, key role players stepped up, and they had the win within their grasp with two chances at the free-throw line. For that scenario to end up in a last-second turnaround three, after the Raptors had appeared to have gotten the stop, is cruel and demoralising. But in the wake it, the Raptors have one last chance to pick themselves up and salvage the season. That’s what it means to play for pride. 

2. The overarching takeaway from Game 3 was that the Raptors lack star power. Pascal Siakam didn’t score a single point in the second half or overtime, while Fred VanVleet was 2-for-9 in that same stretch, and they combined for five assists. As such, the Raptors shot 16-for-44 from halftime onward, with Gary Trent Jr. and Precious Achiuwa accounting for 11 of those makes. Down the stretch, the Raptors’ main offensive strategy was to play through the VanVleet-Siakam pick-and-roll, which was their go-to move all season, but it produced just one basket on a pull-up triple from VanVleet. Siakam looked overwhelmed in the moment, and made uncharacteristic mistakes in key moments, such as failing to cut, losing the handle, and missing wide-open midrange jumpers. VanVleet just looked overmatched between his lack of size and explosiveness on drives, leaving him with only the jumper to fall back on. This game was there to be won, and their main guys didn’t close it out.  

3. Nick Nurse is being rightfully roasted over his coverage on the last play. Nurse decided to not guard the inbounder with 0.9 seconds left on the shot clock in a tie game, opting instead for a 5-on-4 advantage in coverage, and still somehow the Raptors lost track of the biggest man in the building who was the most likely option to catch the ball. The lack of a defender on the inbound meant that the pass was clean and straight into the shooter’s pocket, which preserved valuable milliseconds and allowed Joel Embiid to fluidly catch and shoot. Meanwhile, the decision to keep VanVleet in the game after a timeout was also questionable, especially since Nurse assigned his 6-foot point guard to stand alone in the paint as a back-line defender, which made little sense considering that he isn’t effective on closeouts due to his sheer lack of size compared to someone like Chris Boucher, who, if nothing else, is great at flying out on closeouts. Then, there was the mistake in execution between Trent Jr. and Achiuwa, who failed to switch on a pivotal screen from Tobias Harris which ultimately freed Embiid for the catch. 

4. The night belonged to Embiid, who delivered the biggest moment of his career. It was a storybook ending for a tortured MVP candidate. Scotiabank Arena had been a horror house for him in his career, including Kawhi Leonard’s four-bounce shot in Game 7 of 2019, which saw Embiid come fractionally close to blocking the shot, only to slink into the tunnel in tears. Then for his long-awaited return, the Raptors held him scoreless, which seems impossible given his dominance and skillset. For him to return in that fashion, making that shot in that spot to essentially clinch the series in overtime, without Harden, who had fouled out, it’s the stuff of dreams. Embiid was a force of nature after halftime, scoring 28 points including 18 in the third as he finally broke free from Toronto’s pesky defenders, and delivered a slew of contested jumpers late, culminating in the game-winner.

5. The big lesson in all of this is one as old as basketball itself. You need superstars to win in the playoffs. You can make it competitive as the Raptors did as a team, but to advance four rounds and win it all, you need one of the best five players in the league. This is not like other team sports because in basketball, one player can singularly dictate the outcomes on both offence and defence. Embiid was the perfect example of that, as in addition to his scoring prowess, he also shut off the paint for the Raptors as a whole, to the point where Siakam and VanVleet wouldn’t even dare look at the basket. This is not like baseball where everyone gets a turn and plays only half the game, this isn’t football, where it’s about coordination on a mass level, nor is it hockey or soccer with all the variance that is baked into low-scoring affairs. Basketball is 100 rolls of the dice, and having the best player guarantees you 1 through 4. 

6. Having said that, the Raptors can only deal with what they can. The other big takeaway in Game 3 is that the Raptors finally made this series competitive, and had actually led for the large majority of the game. It probably isn’t enough to win the series, but taking a game is not out of the question. The biggest key will be maintaining their physicality against a bigger team, which is hardly easy but this is the way the Raptors chose to build their team. The Raptors started with Khem Birch in the middle, who was quiet offensively as usual, but his value was in setting the tone with Embiid through physical play. The Raptors were also quicker in their rotations, and thanks to a lax whistle, they could play defense on the move with some physicality permitted. The Raptors forced 22 turnovers, which translated to an additional 12 shots to make up for the gap in efficiency. The game plan was good enough to keep them in it, which is all you can really ask from Nurse and his undermanned team. 

7. The Raptors finally managed to keep Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris in check. The two had combined for 107 points on 57 shots in Philadelphia, and that single-handedly took the Raptors out of contention. The simplest summary of Nurse’s defensive strategy is that his teams crowd star players and force others to beat you, but the manner in which the Raptors slacked against very capable scorers in Harris and Maxey was absurd. It pointed to both a lack of execution, and an unbalanced game plan. To the second point, the Raptors were more willing to switch screens involving Maxey, which kept him from getting as many chances to attack downhill, and there were fewer moments when Maxey’s defender helped over on Harden or Embiid, which had only served to give the quickest player in the series a running start to puncture the defense. In the case of Harris, the Raptors were much more conscious of their positioning, where Harris’s man wasn’t completely shifted over, which left him with open threes. Maxey is still an issue in transition, and Harris’s size allows him to back down the Raptors’ guards on switches, but you can live with them scoring 30 points. 

8. Embiid’s sheer dominance has masked the disappearing act of his sidekick. Harden has been great at setting the table and running the offense, but his own scoring is not there. He has 55 points in three games, which is propped up by his 16 free throws, of which half of them were gained through trickery of the officials. Harden is shooting well from the three, but the stepback jumper has only selectively worked against Trent Jr. while he was sick and unable to move. Harden can still get a step on his man, but once he is in the paint, there is not the lift that is required to score at the basket. His trickery allows him to get calls through slyly grabbing an arm on the way up, or exaggerating the contact as he lands, but it’s all smoke and mirrors. It will not work in the latter series, and it will limit the Sixers in the playoffs. The Raptors have the right game plan against him, which is to play him straight up on the perimeter, and to rotate a second defender late at the rim without jumping to force Harden to score over the top. 

9. The absence of Scottie Barnes is most glaring on offense. The Sixers got great mileage out of their zone defense, which kept the Raptors out of the paint and limiting their ability to hunt individual mismatches because the Raptors simply couldn’t feed the ball into the middle. Barnes is great at that particular role, getting between the lines, being an easy target to feed, and then making the next play, whether that’s going to the basket or kicking it out to shooters. Besides that, his playmaking is one of the few things that connect and bring imagination into the offense, because otherwise it is all entirely predictable. Siakam goes one-on-one against smaller players and tries to use speed and the spin to score within 10 feet. VanVleet is a red-alert threat from three but can’t finish inside and mostly looks for the kickouts. Anunoby is powerful in the post but his balance can be thrown off and his handle makes him robotic in his movements. Trent Jr. is always looking for the jumper, whether that’s on the sidestep three or the pull-up midrange going left off a screen. Those elements on their own are fine, but when you can set up for it, the Raptors are easy to stop. What makes it work is if the Raptors can catch you by surprise, and that comes with passing and cutting, which Barnes excels at. The series might still be 3-0 with Barnes healthy, but the offence wouldn’t be this easy to stop. 

10. Platitudes aside, the Raptors do have to play for their pride. It’s unfortunate that they’re facing a sweep to end what was a brilliant season, and circumstances have worked against them, but it would be an undeniable disappointment to see them roll over. The enduring ethos of this franchise over the last decade with Masai Ujiri in charge is winning, and a total dedication to winning even if the odds are against them. They have the right game plan to come away with something, which is the lesson of Game 3. It might be hard to see that through the pain of losing in that fashion, but that’s just ego. They have two days to wipe that away and stand up for themselves. And if they don’t, as fans, hold them accountable.