It is potentially the biggest couple of weeks in Canadian basketball since the Toronto Raptors won the NBA Championship in 2019. It is a time to deliver on decades of growth in the sport in this country. It could be yet another superstar-solidifying window for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
It is the 2023 FIBA World Cup of Basketball, and it begins Aug. 25 on Sportsnet.
There is a “what’s at stake” subheading below, but let’s be real. What’s really at stake is that we’ve spent 20-plus years building up Canadian basketball at every imaginable level and have no success to show for it in major men’s international events.
Canada is established as a basketball country in every other regard: Fanbase, youth success, women’s success, established players at all levels, unbelievably handsome writers, and so on. Like it or not, a country’s reputation in a sport is going to flow from how they perform in the biggest global events, and Canada has not only not performed well on the men’s side, they’ve rarely even qualified for the marquee events.
This time is supposed to be different. So was last time, when the 2019 World Cup roster turnout underwhelmed, Canada was once again facing a last-chance Olympic Qualifying Tournament, and a pandemic and lack of tune-up games neutralized what was supposed to be a home-court advantage. At some point, Canada risks an ever-growing number of Canadians in the NBA being met with nihilism about the impact of individual talent on a national program.
This time has to be different. And it should be. Even without Jamal Murray, Canada brings a strong roster to the event, with eyes on advancing beyond the initial group stages and into a knockout phase that could punch their ticket early for the 2024 Olympics.
Here’s everything you need to know about Canada at the 2023 FIBA World Cup.
Tournament format
A 32-team field is split into eight groups of four. You play every team in your group, round-robin style, and the two best teams move on. Head-to-head, then point differential, are your tiebreakers, but the room for error is small enough that every team is targeting a 3-0 group phase.
The top two teams from each group move on to the second round, merging with the top two teams from another group. Your results from all three first-round games carry over to the second round. You then play against the two new teams in your group, so you’ll finish with five games total. Head-to-head and point differential are once again the tiebreaker.
The top two teams from these crossover second-round groups then move on to the quarterfinals, a one-and-done eight-team playoff format you’re all used to from there.
Canada’s group, schedule, and how to watch
To use Canada as an example, they’re in Group H and will play France, Lebanon, and Latvia. If Canada is among the top two in their group, they’ll carry their record over to the second round, forming a new group with the two top teams from Group G (Spain, Brazil, Iran, Ivory Coast). Canada would then play the two Group G teams. If they’re top-two in the new crossover group (Group L), they’ll advance to the quarterfinals, playing a team from Group K and continuing on from there.
Canada’s group will play in Jakarta, Indonesia. Knockout-stage games will be played in Manila, Philippines.
Schedule
Friday, Aug. 25: Canada vs. France, 9:30 a.m. ET
Sunday, Aug. 27: Canada vs. Lebanon, 5:45 a.m. ET
Tuesday, Aug. 29: Canada vs. Latvia, 9:30 a.m. ET
Friday, Sept. 1: Second round game, time and opponent TBD
Sunday, Sept. 3: Second round game, time and opponent TBD
Wednesday, Sept. 6: Quarterfinals
Friday, Sept. 8: Semifinals
Sunday, Sept. 10: Finals
Note: There are also classification games throughout the schedule if Canada doesn’t advance at certain points. You can find the full schedule here.
All of Canada’s games will air live on Sportsnet and SN NOW, with Dan Shulman and Alvin Williams on commentary, Arash Madani reporting, and Danielle Michaud, Sherman Hamilton and Michael Grange in-studio.
Other games can be viewed on Courtside1891 and other online streaming services.
What’s at stake?
Well, it’s the World Cup, for starters. The tournament is too often framed as just an Olympic qualifier, and while that’s true — it is your most straightforward path to Olympic qualification — the World Cup itself is a larger, longer, and arguably more difficult event. FIBA weights it as the most important event in their world rankings (and only some of that is political).
A strong World Cup performance, then, is an important goal in itself. It’s also one Canada hasn’t often delivered on, finishing 21st in 2019, 22nd in 2010, and failing to qualify entirely in 2006 and 2014. Canada’s best-ever finish at the event was sixth (1978 and 1982), with the height of their World Cup history probably coming in a seventh-place finish at the 1994 event held in Toronto, led by Rick Fox and a 20-year-old Steve Nash.
But yes, this is also about qualifying for the 2024 Paris Olympics, which is why Canada Basketball set out a three-year competition window for this core. Canada has not qualified for the Olympics on the men’s side since 2000; it would unquestionably be a big deal to get back on that stage as a program.
If Canada fails to qualify for the Olympics here, their only path in would be through one of the four last-chance Olympic Qualifying Tournaments early next summer. Any Canadian basketball fan can tell you they’ve had just about enough of that heartbreak.
How do they qualify for the Olympics?
The top two teams from the Americas region at the World Cup will automatically qualify for the Olympics. That’s a wordy explanation, because qualification is based on geographic zone, not just your World Cup performance.
There are seven Americas teams in this event: Canada, the U.S., the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, Mexico, and Brazil. So Canada must finish top two among those seven.
An important note here: The World Cup sees non-advancing teams play classification games, so that every team is classified 1-through-8 and 17-through-32 at the end. Teams that make the second round but not the quarterfinals (9-through-16) are the only portion of the field who get ranked based on record and point differential. There is no scenario where anyone is tied. So if Canada disappoints at any stage, it’s still paramount they play out the remaining games strong.
What are Canada’s chances of making the Olympics?
Pretty good, but far from a sure thing.
On paper, and based on international results since the last World Cup, Canada is unquestionably one of the two best teams from their region. Even when they’ve dipped into their broader talent pool (their “winter core” that helped them get to the World Cup, it should be appreciated), Canada has beaten their Americas competition with consistency. (The exception to this is the most recent FIBA Americas, a tournament that was effectively meaningless because of FIBA calendar restructuring; Canada sent a development-focused roster to that event to further build out the future winter core groups.)
The tournament format complicates matters, though. Canada has to finish better than all but one of those other teams, and while it will by no means be accepted as an excuse, their quadrant of the tournament is the most difficult. Canada is in a group with France and a crossover group with Spain, meaning they’ll likely have to upend one of the top-five programs in the world to advance to the quarterfinals. Dominican Republic, meanwhile, drew into a group with host Philippines as the No. 1 seed, dramatically altering the difficulty of their group. Of the four second-round crossover groups, Canada and Brazil are in the most difficult (on paper), the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico are in the easiest, and the United States, Mexico, and Venezuela land somewhere in between.
Again, this is not an excuse, it’s simply relevant if, for example, Canada plays well, makes the second round, comes up short of the quarterfinals, and watches the Dominican Republic finish eight after advancing through an easier crossover group.
A reminder here, too, that point differential can end up mattering in a few different seeding scenarios, so it’s foot-on-the-gas start-to-finish.
Who’s there for Canada? Who’s not?
As of this writing, Canada hasn’t officially announced their 12-man roster for Jakarta. They had 14 players with them in their most tune-up games, and they’ll be drawing 12 from there. Those players are as follows:
Starters: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, RJ Barrett, Dillon Brooks, Kelly Olynyk, Dwight Powell
Locks: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Lu Dort, Trae Bell-Haynes, Kyle Alexander
Injury TBD: Melvin Ejim
Bubble: Zach Edey, Phil Scrubb, Thomas Scrubb, Kenny Chery
Quickly: Canada has rolled with the same five starters, though there are some matchups where starting Alexander-Walker could make sense … Ejim is a lock if healthy but rolled his right ankle in a recent friendly and his status has not been updated … Edey certainly has end-of-bench utility with his size and interior touch; his minutes in exhibitions were a mixed bag … the Scrubbs bring the most program experience but weren’t heavily featured in tune-ups … Chery was a late addition to the travelling roster after Murray’s absence became official.
The roster is a bit thinner than we initially anticipated, and not just because Murray is unavailable due to ongoing knee rehabilitation. The team also lost Oshae Brissett due to a camp injury, Cory Joseph due to a combination of back issues and personal decision, and Kassius Robertson because his new EuroLeague club in Valencia (presumably, politely) let him know his absence from their training camp, which overlaps with the tournament, would not be an ideal start. Robertson’s absence is felt particularly hard following the Murray news, as he would have stood to absorb additional scoring responsibility.
There are also a number of notable names missing who did not initially attend camp with the team. As has been covered extensively, Canada Basketball asked for a three-year commitment from a core group of players, ostensibly leaving them a thinner pool to draw from for each individual event. It looks like that was maybe a slight overstep, leaving them thin on replacement options as players dropped out. You can understand and appreciate the thinking with the strategy, even if an Andrew Nembhard-type might look quite good in the Chery/Scrubb spot.
What did we learn from the exhibition games?
Canada went 3-2 in exhibitions, although the record hardly matters.
They opened with a close loss to Germany, in Germany, in a game where they were a disaster early and managed to fight their way back. They then destroyed New Zealand before defeating Germany in a rematch, this time in overtime. They then traveled to Spain, where they defeated their hosts in overtime, the first time Canada has beaten a No. 1-ranked team since they topped Yugoslavia in the 2000 Olympics. They closed out with a loss to Karl-Anthony Towns and the Dominican Republic where Canada’s core players only played the first half.
Even in exhibition, tight wins at Germany and at Spain are notable. Germany is quite good, and while Spain isn’t the Spain we’ve come to expect in international play, they’re solid, experienced, and extremely well-coached. Perhaps most importantly, Canada played a number of very close games against knockout-stage calibre opponents, reps that will be felt immensely when serious action begins. One of Canada’s biggest problems in prior tournaments has been a lack of a true competitive ramp-up, leaving them a bit behind other teams to start; that won’t be the case now.
What are Canada’s strengths and weaknesses?
Within those games, a few strengths were also clear. The FIBA version of Olynyk is an all-world offensive player. You can run a lot of your offence through him at the elbows, where his passing skill thrives. Barrett and Gilgeous-Alexander also showed their strength within the FIBA rules will be Canada’s best path to paint penetration. And, if things continue to click, Canada should make a case for the best overall defence in the tournament; they have size, speed, versatility, and, now, some familiarity. Gilgeous-Alexander also enters the tournament coming off a fifth-place finish in NBA MVP voting and is quite possibly the second-best player in the tournament after Luka Doncic.
There are soft spots, though. The biggest limitation Canada has is shooting without Murray and Robertson out of the mix, making Alexander-Walker even more important to the offence now. Standard horns sets with Barrett and Brooks in the corners may be too limiting if Barrett isn’t having one of his hot nights. Head coach Jordi Fernandez will have to get creative with spacing. Canada is also fairly thin after a few withdrawals, and Bell-Haynes and Ejim will have to play better than they did in exhibitions to stabilize bench-heavy groups.
There should be enough here. Having the very best players isn’t everything in FIBA play, but it’s a damn good start, and Canada’s top seven can match up with any other group in the field, assuming Brooks plays to his lofty potential and not to the level he played in Germany.
From there, it’s on capable depth pieces to play to their capability and on Fernandez to find the right mix in transition lineups. They should also, uh, be working on their press break in these final days.
How tough are the teams in Canada’s group?
Canada will open against France, the world’s No. 5-ranked program and the tournament’s No. 3-favourite based on betting lines. Their roster is headlined by Rudy Gobert, Evan Fournier, Nic Batum, and Raptors restricted free agent rights legend Nando de Colo. They also have a handful of the best players in the European pro system, some of whom even have club-level experience together. They are very good.
Latvia took a big hit when Kristaps Porzingis had to pull out of the event with an injury. They’re not a pushover, armed with a good mix of size and shooting, and while the bookmakers don’t give them great odds of advancing, they have the third-best odds of the eight third-seeded teams across the groups.
Lebanon, meanwhile, have the longest odds in the entire tournament of advancing past the first round. Every team at this level has to be respected. Still, that game has to be viewed as a point-differential game, considering that number carries over to future rounds.
Canada will crossover with two of Spain (No. 1 ranked; not quite as good as prior years but still a massive favourite to advance), Brazil, Iran, and Ivory Coast.
How tough is that crossover group? Well, France, Canada, and Spain all rank among the top-five favourites in the tournament based on betting odds. Some of that may be name-brand value and how NBA players on a roster shift the odds, but that doesn’t account for all of it. Canada has to finish better than at least one of the tournament favourites to make the quarterfinals, and likely has to beat France or Spain to do that.
Final thoughts
I am very excited. This has the potential to be one of the biggest moments in Canadian basketball history, and one that affirms so much of the work that’s been done growing the sport here for so long. If you can get past the fact that it’s Lucy holding the football when it comes to the senior men’s team, this should be a blast.
See you Friday.
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