5 bad beats that could haunt Raptors in final push for playoff spot

LOS ANGELES — The Toronto Raptors are running out of runway to define their season. They are five games out of sixth place and a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference — a spot currently occupied by the Brooklyn Nets — and are also fighting for favourable seeding in the play-in tournament as they sit three games behind the Miami Heat for seventh place and a game behind the Atlanta Hawks for eighth.

Actual playoff rounds and homecourt advantage in do-or-die play-in tournament games hinge on every incremental movement in the standings.

Needless to say, with 16 games left, every win counts for a ninth-place team just one game up on 10th.

“We’re taking every one of these games very serious,” said Raptors wing Scottie Barnes after a heartbreaking — and controversial — loss on the road against Denver on Monday night. “We need every single one of them, we know that, so every game we’re trying to come out, attack first, be the aggressors and try to come out with a win. We’re not taking none of these games for granted.”

Sounds like a plan. The Raptors' next chance to put it into action comes Wednesday night and then Friday when Toronto visits a pair of equally desperate clubs in Los Angeles: the Clippers and Lakers, respectively.

But Monday night’s last-minute fireworks couldn’t help to get me thinking about how slim the Raptors' margins have been all season, and how many strange, maddening, or heartbreaking losses they have piled up. Toronto has a 4-10 record in games decided by three points or less, which is tied for the fewest wins in close games among teams in the East playoff picture, this while playing in the seventh most tight games.

A different result in a few of those games could have had the Raptors in a better position as the season comes to a finish. So here's a look back at the losses that were tough at the time, and may end up looking worse as the season comes down to the wire.

It’s never too early in a season to have a demoralizing loss. The Nets were already reeling after being blown out on opening night by Memphis. Rumours about then-head coach Steve Nash’s job security were already swirling, the uncertainty following Kevin Durant’s off-season trade request remained fresh and who knows what Kyrie Irving was about to get up to?

Anyway, what’s relevant here is Pascal Siakam played one of the best games of his career as he put up 37 points, 13 rebounds and 11 assists against the Nets, backing up his stated training camp goal of being a top-five player in the league. Unfortunately, the Raptors still got outdone by the then-Nets stars. First Irving and then Durant hit heavily contested late shot-clock jumpers to keep the Nets in front in the final 73 seconds and then Fred VanVleet had a rare brain cramp as he left Royce O’Neal to go double Irving and O’Neal made the Raptors pay with the late, game-sealing dagger.

“If I could have that back, I would,” VanVleet later said. 

Bad beat scale: 3.5/5

Perhaps as bad a loss as the Raptors have had this season or any season. To start with the Raptors were on the road and controlling the game, leading 33 out of a possible 53 minutes, including by eight with 2:36 to play. They promptly gave up a 10-0 run to the Hawks in the space of 1:37 and were trailing by two with 59 seconds left. O.G. Anunoby made a pair of free throws to tie and the Raptors got a stop.

But then the weirdness starts.

Anunoby missed a game-winning jumper, but Christian Koloko got the rebound, knocked it out to VanVleet who drove the lane and dumped off to Barnes for the easiest, most open and in-rhythm game-winning lay-up attempt he’ll ever have in his career. But he somehow missed and the game went into overtime, leading to more weirdness.

The Raptors fell behind by four with 11.6 seconds left, but got a quick score on a dunk by Anunoby; got lucky when DeAndre Hunter missed two free throws and then got lucky again when Atlanta’s Clint Capela bailed out Anunoby and fouled him on a wild drive with 3.8 seconds left. Anunoby made both free throws and the game was tied again. The Raptors pressed on the inbounds, but something got lost in translation as Hawks rookie AJ Griffin (son of Raptors assistant coach Adrian Griffin) snuck in behind Toronto’s defence and was wide-open for a lay-up as Trae Young split Toronto’s pressure and found him from halfcourt. Game over. 

Bad beat scale: 5/5

You can’t win them all, literally, and in some ways the Raptors had nothing to be ashamed of losing to the Nets at this point in the season. After they wobbled early, Brooklyn fired Steve Nash and immediately caught fire. They were in the midst of what would be a 12-game win streak when they arrived in Toronto. It was an excellent game. VanVleet went off for 39 points and helped the Raptors offence keep pace with the Nets' (then) superstar-driven attack. There were four lead changes and three ties in the final three minutes — with one of them coming from a corner three with 15 seconds left by Yuta Watanabe, who was waived by the Raptors and was shooting 53.8 per cent from distance for the Nets at the time. His splash gave Brooklyn a two-point lead.

Still, the Raptors tied it with eight seconds left when Barnes was fouled by Irving and made both free throws. And then Irving caught an inbounds pass with 3.5 seconds left, drove hard to his right, slammed on the brakes to shed VanVleet and rose up for the game-winner that dropped with no time on the clock. It was perfection.

The reason why this loss is on the list is that it improved the Nets to 4-0 against the Raptors, sweeping the season series. Durant and Irving played in all four and combined averaged 46 points on 61 per cent shooting against Toronto. Two months later they are with Phoenix and Dallas, respectively. Which means that if a playoff spot or play-in tournament seeding hinges on the Nets' edge in the season series against Toronto, it will have been won by two stars who are no longer with the team. 

Bad beat scale: 4/5

Not only was this a bad loss but it was also one of the weirdest basketball games ever played at Scotiabank Arena. It started off with an epic display of offensive ineptitude as Toronto and Milwaukie combined to shoot 7-of-48 (not a typo) in the first quarter after which the Bucks led 13-12. Toronto didn’t score a field goal for the first 7:24 of the game but trailed just 7-1. Anyway, the game got a little a more 'normal' after that, until the Bucks built up a 21-point lead with 3:50 to play in the game. Then all hell broke loose.

Toronto finished the game on a 28-7 run capped off with a Gary Trent Jr. three — he scored seven points in the final 29 seconds — with one second left in regulation to force overtime. And then… the Raptors lost anyway as they could only manage two field goals in the five-minute overtime period and missed one final shot at the buzzer after Milwaukee’s Grayson Allen hit what proved to be the game-winning three with 11 seconds to play. 

Bad beat scale: 4.5/5, only because when you score 12 points in the first quarter you probably deserve to lose on principle.

This will forever be known as the Scottie Barnes ejection game. To recap: Barnes was tossed by crew chief Scott Foster with 28 seconds left for using "verbiage that which directly questioned the integrity of the crew." Barnes was adamant that whatever it was he said was to himself, but "I guess they took offence to it."

Did Barnes’ ejection cost the Raptors the game? Not directly. The Nuggets were already up one and about to shoot a pair of free throws, and then were awarded another free throw on the Barnes' technical and ejection. Denver made them all and were up four. The Raptors weren't really in position to win the game. Even without the technical they would be down three. 

But a lot happened and none of it good for the Raptors in the last 54 seconds as they were on the verge of giving the Nuggets just their fifth home loss of the season. First Barnes was ruled to have fouled Nikola Jokic off the ball with Raptors head coach Nick Nurse losing his coach’s challenge. Then Jokic was ruled to have fouled Barnes on a drive but Denver had that overturned when Nuggets head coach Mike Malone successfully challenged. And finally, there was the call made on Jakob Poeltl for bumping Aaron Gordon which is what prompted Barnes to say whatever he said to himself, but evidently loud enough for Foster to hear it, judge it bad enough to eject him and give the Nuggets an extra free throw. In total the three calls represent a seven-point swing inside the final minute of a game Toronto lost by five. 

Bad beat scale: 5/5