By defeating Suns, Raptors show title potential is closer than record suggests

In a year when perhaps a third of the NBA can convince themselves that they have what it takes to win a title, say it out loud and not be laughed at, the Phoenix Suns are the team that has done the best job of showing why they deserve to be taken seriously.

Even without their unquestioned leader, Chris Paul, who put in an MVP-level season at age 36 until it he needed surgery to repair his injured thumb after the All-Star break, the Suns have kept grinding out wins.

Before hosting the Toronto Raptors, they were 5-3 since Paul went out and that includes four games when All-Star guard Devin Booker was in COVID protocols.

They are fourth in offence, second in defence and on pace to win 66 games; the next best teams are headed for 55.

They’re not a lock to win a title – the league is deep in contenders – but the defending Western Conference champions have had it locked in their GPS since they lost in the Finals to the Milwaukee Bucks in six games last summer.

So, in that context, how do the Raptors compare?

For the second time this season the Raptors played the Suns straight up, but unlike their first meeting in Toronto where the Suns came out on top in a hard-fought battle, Toronto earned every bit of the 117-112 win Friday night.

The Raptors led 30-24 after the first quarter as Barnes got off to a quick start and led 56-52 at half as the previously slumping Gary Trent Jr. caught fire, scoring 13 of his 18 first-half points in the second quarter. They took control of the game in the third quarter as they went 7-of-9 from deep. Trent Jr. put up another 13 points, but it was a pair of threes from Fred VanVleet that sparked a 19-3 run that sent the Raptors into the fourth quarter with a 14-point lead.

The Suns went to their bench and got some production from their reserve bigs as JaVale McGee and Bismack Biyombo helped the Suns control the paint at both ends against the under-sized Raptors. They tied the score with 4:36 to go on an offensive rebound by Biyombo that capped a 20-6 run by the Suns. They took the lead after Trent Jr. was charged with a flagrant foul when he hit Suns guard Cam Payne in the head while following through on a three-point shot. But Trent Jr. came back and hit his eighth three of the night, and a pair of steals by Scottie Barnes and another steal by Pascal Siakam led to three consecutive run-out scores to put Toronto up six with 74 seconds to play.

The Raptors were led by Trent Jr., who iced the game at the free-throw line with 8.1 seconds left after the Suns had pulled back within a point and missed shots to take a lead or tie. The Raptors shooting guard finished with a season-high-tying 42 points on 13-of-21 shooting and 8-of-11 from deep. Siakam added 25 points and 10 assists while rookie Barnes chipped in 15 points, six rebounds and five steals and was a difference-maker in the fourth quarter.

Toronto improved to 36-30 and pulled within two games of sixth-place Cleveland while the Suns – who had all five starters in double figures – fell to 53-14 but remain 7.5 games up on second-place Memphis in the Western Conference.

But bigger picture, what elements of a championship contender does Phoenix have that Toronto is lacking? Less than you might think, given that the seventh-place Raptors are most likely headed for the play-in tournament and the Suns are likely headed to the second of what could be multiple Finals appearances. 

Here’s how the Suns and Raptors matchup:

1. Point Guard: Paul’s return from his thumb injury is uncertain, but he’s expected back and in full health for the post-season. There is even a line of thinking that two months off to rest and recuperate at age 36 could help the Suns long-term. But as a result, we didn’t get to see a match-up between Paul and Raptors All-Star Fred VanVleet, who cites Paul as a mentor and a role model.

It’s probably not fair to suggest that VanVleet is at or could get to Paul’s level – the Suns star is a lock for the Hall of Fame and will go down as one of the greatest point guards of all time. But VanVleet shoots better than Paul, is a recognized leader and they play a comparable brand of tenacious, disruptive defence.

Verdict? Paul is a better player than VanVleet, still, but can VanVleet be the primary ball-handler and on-floor leader on a very good NBA team? He’s earned that recognition this season.

2. Shooting Guard: Trent Jr. has shown signs of being much more than the depth scorer he was likely projected to be when the Raptors traded for the 23-year-old last season. And he certainly showed it again Friday night. It was reminiscent of the form he was on before the All-Star break, he was on a 15-game tear where he averaged 23.4 points a game with a true shooting percentage of 58.2. His defence has made great strides, but he’s not much of a playmaker.

The Suns counter with Booker, who at 25 has cemented himself as one of the most reliable big-volume scorers in the NBA. He’s averaged 26.1 points and 5.6 assists a game for four seasons now, and with a 58.8 true shooting percentage – joining Steph Curry and Damian Lillard as the only guards to be at those thresholds since 2018-19. He’s picked up his game defensively as well, and is a borderline superstar as a result.

Verdict? Booker is the kind of cornerstone player that can make plays and score with volume and efficiency and do it in the toughest situations – he averaged 28.2 points a game in the Finals last year. Trent Jr. isn’t there yet – in part – because almost no one is. But on this night? He out-scored Booker 42-22.

3. Small Forward: The Suns have Mikal Bridges; the Raptors have OG Anunoby (well they didn’t against the Suns as he missed his ninth game with a fractured finger) but there isn’t too much to choose between the two all-rounders.

Each of them has made their reputations as defenders, but are growing as scorers. They are the kind of elite role players that contenders and champions have, and each still has considerable upside.

Verdict: On balance, there’s nothing significant to choose between them.

4. Power forward: The Suns start Jae Crowder while the Raptors counter with Pascal Siakam. Not much of a contest here. Crowder is a really strong role player who defends multiple positions, competes and can really stretch defences with his shooting when he’s on. But Siakam is one of the most versatile scorers and playmakers in the league. Is he the kind of primary option that can win playoff series? That’s still to be proven, but it’s something he might be able to do. 

Verdict: Siakam is younger, better and more versatile.

5. Centre: Suns big man DeAndre Ayton is a former No. 1 overall pick who is just 23, already one of the best finishers and rebounders in the NBA and the kind of big that can stay on the floor in all situations given his light feet. The Raptors don’t really have anyone close. The recent improvement of second-year big Precious Achiuwa is encouraging, but the ease and quality that Ayton finishes with are nearly impossible to replicate.

Verdict: Ayton has shown he can play a key role at the highest levels and he’ll be doing it for a decade. The Raptors can strive to play position-less basketball, but there’s no rule that one of their positions can’t be filled by a seven-footer.

So, on the surface, the Suns have a slight edge at point guard and clear advantages at shooting guard and centre. The two teams saw-off at small forward, while Siakam gives the Raptors the clear advantage at power forward. Not surprisingly, the Suns have more depth that can supplement their key rotation players which helps over a long season, but developing contributors in spots 6-through-12 on the roster is relatively low-hanging fruit for a smart front office and the Raptors have proven adept at doing just that.

And as strong as the Suns' culture has taken route under head coach Monte Williams, that is something that took hold for Toronto before the Raptors won the title in 2019 and has carried over since.

The wild card in all of this?

The ceiling of Barnes, the Raptors' ever-more impressive rookie. The Suns don’t have anyone with Barnes' gifts at this stage of his career, and as Barnes continues to grow as a scorer, find his feet defensively and flash the kind of passing vision that is hard to teach, it is hard to know for sure how he’ll change the Raptors equation, goals and timelines. He might be a superstar and he might get there sooner than anyone expected.

Teams win titles with superstars, and in VanVleet, Siakam, Anunoby and Trent Jr., the Raptors certainly have the pieces to complement one.

None of that guarantees the Raptors can return to their 2018-19 and 2019-20 heights, but as they showed against the Suns again, they might be closer than their record suggests.