Can new-look Toronto Raptors make any noise in the East?

TORONTO — There were some very nice moments on Friday as the Toronto Raptors introduced their two newest players, Ja'Kobe Walter and Jonathan Mogbo.

Encouraging too was the news they’d signed a long-term deal with their point guard, Immanuel Quickley.

Both of the rookies were accompanied by their parents and it was clearly a proud day as each of them made official their long-held dream: making it to the NBA.

(We should note that the other new Raptors draftees — Jamal Shead and Ulrich Chomche — were not in Toronto as the trades that they were part of haven’t been cleared by the league office.)

Walter, who was taken 19th overall in the draft on Wednesday night, already has seen the Raptors fan base in action.

“I've gotten a lot of messages. Read the comments,” said Walter, a shooting guard who played at Baylor last season and was recognized at the Big 12 Freshman of the Year. “The fan base is already insane. So, just knowing that it feels like a whole country behind me. It's just really a blessing. I'm just really grateful for it.”

Mogbo was already well versed in Raptors fandom.

He is one of Scottie Barnes’ closest friends, first meeting while playing on the same AAU team, Mogbo was in fourth grade and Barnes was in third. They played together throughout high school until Barnes left West Palm Beach, Fla. for prep school.

When Barnes was a rookie, Mogbo made his first visit to Toronto, and a running gag became how often he would be mistaken for former Raptor Precious Achiuwa.

“I got love since day one when I first came to visit Scott in his rookie year.
said Mogbo, who wasn’t six feet tall until he finished high school and spent four years at three different schools as he slowly grew to six-foot-eight and became an NBA prospect after his breakout season at the University of San Francisco last year. “Funny story, we went to ride scooters around town and went to the pharmacy to get some and so we're walking through the aisle, and someone was like this ‘is that Precious and Scottie?

“I was like, ‘What is it, is my hair? I hear Precious always wears his in a ponytail, and I always wear mine in a ponytail. So it was a funny interaction ... And then [he finally] met Precious at dinner one time and he was like, ‘he does kind of look like me.' But it's been great since I’ve been here. Great fans, great city, so can’t complain.” 

So very fun. If Walter and Mogbo — or even one of them — become significant contributors in the near future after being taken 19th and 31st respectively, it will be considered a good day of team building.

But nice moments don’t pay the bills in the NBA, winning does.

Which is why the most meaningful Raptors news Friday — at least until they decide what to do with the $23-million option on Bruce Brown’s contract, which has to be picked up by midnight to prevent him from becoming a free agent — was that Toronto reached an agreement on a five-year deal for $175 million with Quickley.

How well Walker and Mogbo and anyone else the Raptors have acquired in the past 48 hours (Davion Mitchell and Sasha Vezenkov from Sacramento, for example) perform will not matter as much as how well Quickley plays as a starting point guard earning an average of $35 million a year.

It’s a rich deal, and justifies Quickley's decision not to sign an extension with the New York Knicks last summer. Most of the rumblings last year were that Quickley was looking for a deal comparable to what Devin Vassell got from the San Antonio Spurs last summer (five years and $135 million, beginning this season). The Knicks couldn’t justify spending that much on what was then their backup point guard and set in motion the wheels that landed Quickley — and RJ Barrett — in Toronto in the deal that sent OG Anunoby and Achiuwa to the Knicks.

But just as Anunoby had all the leverage with the Knicks — who couldn’t afford to not sign him after using plum trade assets to acquire him — and was able to get top dollar (five years, $212.5 million) as a result, the Raptors had no choice but to sign Quickley to a deal that would make him happy and eliminate any risk of a cap-space team making a run at him as a restricted free agent after trading Anunoby to get him.

Looking past all of that, as the NBA salary cap increases — with a new media rights deal in place, it’s expected to approach an astounding $200 million (compared to $141 million this season upcoming) over the five years of Quickley’s deal — even eye-popping contract numbers can be somewhat justified. For example, Quickley will be earning 21 per cent of the cap in 2024-25 and ‘just’ 19.3 per cent of the cap in 2028-29, even though he’ll be picketing nearly $40 million for that season alone.

So, taken as a whole, the Raptors have secured a long-term solution at point guard for about 20 per cent of the salary cap during what should be the prime of Quickley’s career, given he just turned 25.

It’s hard to argue with that given that as a starter last season he averaged 18.6 points and 6.8 assists a game while shooting 39.5 per cent from three on more than seven attempts a game. It’s not unreasonable to project Quickley to produce at least 20 points and seven assists and shoot 40 per cent from three on high volume over the length of his deal. For reference, the only points guards who managed that over the previous five years are Damian Lillard and Tyrese Haliburton.

The more existential question as the Raptors roster solidifies — Barnes, Quickley, Barrett, Jakob Poeltl, Gradey Dick and Kelly Olynyk are the veteran core for the next two years at least, depending on what happens with pending free agent Gary Trent Jr. — is what each of them playing to their potential adds up to in terms of wins.

Even in an Eastern Conference that is lacking in depth, it’s hard to see that lineup bursting into the upper echelon, likely occupied by the Boston Celtics, Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, Milwaukee Bucks, Indiana Pacers and Cleveland Cavaliers for now, with the Miami Heat and Orlando Magic putting pressure on that group.

Similarly, barring a catastrophic run of injuries or bad luck, it would be hard to see the Raptors being worse that what seems like a fairly large group of likely tankers in advance of a deep 2025 draft pool — we see you Washington, Brooklyn, Charlotte, Detroit and Chicago.

The most likely landing spot for this iteration of the Raptors, having committed $225 million (and possibly up to $270 million depending on earned incentives) to Barnes and $175 million to Quickley as well as the rest of their obligations, is battling for a spot in the play-in tournament with a pick late in the draft lottery as a consolation prize.

That’s not written in stone, of course. If Barnes stacks a breakout year on his All-Star breakout year from a year ago and becomes an all-NBA player, that can change things, and maybe the Raptors are banking on just that. Similarly, Quickley showing his ceiling is ‘really high’ rather than just ‘high’ would be impactful. Does Dick prove he’s an elite role player and Barrett show that the way he finished last season was the norm and not the exception? If all those things happen, the Raptors' trajectory could change.

If one of their draft picks — Walter, Mogbo and beyond — hits the ground running and proves to be the next Pascal Siakam, who made the jump from unheralded to essential in two seasons, that could change things too.

The Raptors are rebuilding, they’ve told everyone with conviction. What exactly it will add up to is open to debate.