Chaos theory: Raptors' approach not always clear through season's first quarter

The tricky thing with the NBA schedule is that you can’t really do an "at the quarter" mark, since 82 doesn’t divide neatly by four.

Technically, the Toronto Raptors reached the quarter mark of their season at halftime against New Orleans on Wednesday night, their 21st game. They were trailing by 27 at the time, so not much to commemorate.

The Raptors are travelling from New Orleans to New York City on Thursday, having stayed over in the Crescent City. They’ll play Brooklyn for the third time in six weeks on Friday night. They are 11-10 (8-2 at home), sitting seventh in the East.

The question is: Do we know much more about this team than we did when it took on the then-Steve Nash-coached Nets in the second game of the season, compared with what we do as they get set to play the Jacques Vaughn-coached Nets? In some cases yes, in others, no – or at least – not yet.

THOUGHTS AFTER 21 GAMES, WITH 61 TO PLAY

We know for sure

This team has a very, very clear idea of how they want to play basketball. As Fred VanVleet put it the other day, “Every game we play just feels like chaos.”

Well, it’s at least mostly intentional. Last season, the Raptors focused on a fairly obvious but mostly overlooked concept: The team that takes more shots gives itself the best chance to win. Efficiency is great, like, who wouldn’t want more points by making more shots? But, failing that, taking a lot more shots than your opponent should make up in volume what your team might lack in efficiency (more on that in minute).

Last season, the Raptors led the NBA in shot differential as they took 6.9 shots per game more than their opponent. This season, they’ve ramped it up even more: Their shot differential is +8.8, whereas the next closest team is Atlanta, at +4.3. They do it by forcing turnovers and making fewer of their own, which takes away shots from their opponents while gaining more for themselves.

The Raptors force 17.4 turnovers a game to lead the NBA while making just 13 per game themselves, which is second best. The +4.4 turnover margin leads the NBA. The Raptors are also third in offensive rebounding, which generates additional shots, and are 11th in defensive rebounding percentage, which limits opponent’s extra shots.

The Raptors have maintained this "We shoot more than you" approach despite injuries and almost irrespective of opponent through injuries, on the road, at home, wherever. This is their plan, and they execute it.

We know this team needs to get just a little bit better defensively

It seems a little counterintuitive given the whole forced turnover thing and that the Raptors allow just 82.1 opponent shots per game. By the same logic, as getting more shots should be good for scoring, allowing fewer should help limit opponent’s scoring, which is the ultimate goal.

Except the Raptors give up too much quality. Opponents are shooting 57.3 per cent on two-pointers against them, which is the third-highest mark in the league behind a pair of teams – Orlando and San Antonio – who are neck-and-neck in the Wembanyama sweepstakes. The goal of most NBA offences is to take as many shots at the rim as possible, and failing that take threes, ideally corner threes, which are considered the easiest to convert. The Raptors let teams do exactly that: opponents get 27 per cent of their shots inside three feet, and 42 per cent of them from three, and 30.5 per cent of those threes are from the corners, marks that are 24th, 27th and 30th in the NBA, respectively.

And teams take advantage of the Raptors' defensive shot profile, converting on 71 per cent of their shots inside three feet (21st) and 39.4 per cent of their looks from the corners. The Raptors' overall defensive rating is 111.6 points per 100 possessions but that reflect the number of shots that never get taken because of Toronto’s ball swiping. As long as teams don’t turn it over against them, the Raptors defence struggles: they are 24th in points per play allowed in the halfcourt, per Cleaningtheglass.com.

Also, this team to get just a little bit better offensively

The Raptors' smoke-and-mirror tricks continue on offence. Their ability to generate so many more possessions than their opponents helps them post a pretty decent offensive profile: 112.9 points per 100 possessions is just a hair above league average which – given the Raptors' injury woes and the extended three-point shooting slumps suffered by Gary Trent Jr. and O.G. Anunoby for most of November, isn’t too bad, and it’s probably worth noting that before Pascal Siakam got hurt, the Raptors were third in offensive rating, at 115.6.

The difference was that they shot the ball at a league average rate with a True Shooting percentage (which includes the value of three pointers and free throws) of 57.1. Since Siakam (and so many others) went down, Toronto’s True Shooting plummeted to 29th, at 52.3, and their three-point shooting was last. Those number have already ticked up in the last two games.

The good news is that the Raptors don’t need to be brilliant offensively. Last season, they won 48 games and finished fifth in the East while ranking 26th in halfcourt offense, per CleaningtheGlass.com. Any improvement they make is amplified because of their dominant shot differential as laid out above. But they can’t be last – which is where they are now – and reasonably expect to excel.

But after 21 games, I’m pretty sure they won’t be last, and if they can get to league average in making shots, rather than simply taking a lot, look out.

We still don’t know which is the real Gary Trent Jr.

For exactly one third of the Raptors' 21 games, the 23-year-old shooting guard has been an absolute weapon, delivering offence at an elite level, and showing signs of at least being interested defensively.

Over those seven games, Trent Jr. is averaging 21.5 points a game and shooting 45 per cent from the three. The problem is those seven games are separated by roughly a month and reflect the first five games of the season and the last two (in which Trent Jr. came off the bench). In between was a stretch of 11 games where Trent Jr. averaged 14.5 points a game on 22 per cent from three. He was at his worst when the shorthanded Raptors needed him most.

If Trent Jr. can trend a little more closely to the former and – as a bonus – do it off the bench while contributing higher-effort plays (a season-high seven rebounds on Monday and three steals on Wednesday), it opens up all kinds of possibilities for Nurse, and frankly for Trent Jr. too. It gives Nurse flexibility to fiddle with his starting lineup, something that was difficult to do (outside injuries) if Trent Jr. and Scottie Barnes were fixtures there. It also gives Trent Jr. the chance to do what he does best if he plays more minutes with the second unit: hunt shots without conscience (for context, his assist percentage of 7.4 puts him behind Precious Achiuwa, on the Raptors depth chart).

The Raptors might end up trading Trent Jr., who is likely headed for free agency this summer, but the trade deadline isn’t until mid-February. In the meantime, they desperately need him to do well at what he’s best at doing.

Scottie Barnes is going to be just fine, but we need to see it soon

It’s hard to believe, but yes, Barnes had some low moments during his charmed rookie season a year ago. Ten times, he posted a "game score" (a catch-all number for box score contributions where above 15 is quite good and below five is pretty bad) of less than five, which is some version of poor shooting and lack of obvious activity as a passer, defender or rebounder.

This season, Barnes has had only two real statistical stinkers – and one of them was on Wednesday against New Orleans, where he demonstrated his appreciation for returning to the starting lineup after one game coming off the bench by going 1-of-7 from the floor and grabbing a single rebound in 21 minutes. He made some nice passes with five assists, but also three turnovers. He was a non-factor in what might have been his worst game as a pro (his Game score was 1.2, the lowest of career).

Instead of highlights this season, there have been lowlights – missing a game-winning lay-up against Atlanta or getting lost in coverage in overtime as Trae Young raced the length of floor and found AJ Griffin for the game-winning lob.

Against the Pelicans, it was his sequence at the end of the first quarter when he turned the ball over, leading to a dunk by Larry Nancy Jr., and then carelessly inbounded the ball and basically handed it over the Pels Garrett Temple for a lay-up before the horn.

Barnes needs to pick up his game, there’s no question. His playmaking has been a bright spot this season but even his three-point gains have slipped lately. But it’s not so much the low points that Barnes has managed early in the season, it’s the lack of high points. He had 30 outings last season with a "game score" of 15 or more, where you couldn’t help but notice him. Several nights he was the Raptors' best player. This season, he’s had four with 25 per cent of the season played already. It’s too soon to diagnose a sophomore setback or anything, but the Raptors need Barnes to be better.