Players in the Eastern Conference unfamiliar with the NBA’s play-in tournament are set to square off with hopes of getting to the big dance.
This year’s the one-and-done matchups see the Miami Heat play host to the Atlanta Hawks in the 7-8 game on Tuesday, then the Chicago Bulls head north to Toronto for the 9-10 game on Wednesday.
The Hawks are the only team of the four to have gone through the play-in gauntlet after securing the eighth seed in last year’s postseason. Playoff experience is a common notion, but will play-in experience play a role in their matchup against Jimmy Butler and the Heat?
In the other game, the Toronto Raptors are set to face off against a familiar foe, and one whose playoff history inside the Scotiabank Arena has left much to be desired for the home fans. They’ll take on former fan favourite DeMar DeRozan and the Chicago Bulls in a win-or-go-home battle.
Here’s everything you need to know about the Eastern Conference play-in games.
When: Tuesday, April 11, 7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT in Miami on Sportsnet 360 and SN NOW
Regular Season Series: Miami won season series, 3-1
Spread: Heat -5.0 (via sports interaction)
Key Matchup: Dejounte Murray vs. Tyler Herro
Last year, when the Hawks secured the eighth seed after making their way through the play-in tournament, their reward was a first-round matchup against the Heat.
It wasn’t close. The Heat dispatched their division rival in five games and Trae Young, the player meant to carry Atlanta, was completely shut down by Miami’s lengthy defence. The guard averaged 15.4 points (13 points fewer than his regular season average that year) and shot a dismal 32 per cent from the field and 18 per cent from deep.
In the off-season, Atlanta sent three first-round picks with a pick swap to the San Antonio Spurs for Murray in an effort to get back to being a contender.
In a game like this, where the Heat’s plan in the past revolved around utterly shutting down the Hawks’ primary ball-handler, Murray should alleviate the load for his backcourt mate and hopefully stave off some of the mistakes Young made last season.
More than anything, though, his abilities as a point-of-attack defender will be key to shutting down Miami’s microwave scorer, Herro.
Much like Young last year, Herro struggled in the series, averaging only 12.8 points on horrendous efficiency (39 per cent from the field and 18 per cent from deep) off the bench.
With the rest of the Heat backcourt often struggling on offence, they’ll look to Herro to carry the load from that group and potentially make up for his poor playoff showing from last season.
Why the Miami Heat will win: Jimmy Butler.
Oh, do we need to expand on that? Well, in a one-game series, one question tends to prevail: Who can you turn to when you need a bucket? There might not be five players in the NBA more reliable in the biggest moments than Butler.
Butler carried the load for the Heat in the playoffs last year, and if not for an overly enthusiastic pull-up three in transition with 15 seconds left in Game 7 against the Celtics, he would’ve dragged Miami to the finals twice in three years.
Jimmy "Buckets" averaged 27.4 points, 7.4 rebounds and a league-leading 2.1 steals in the playoffs last year, all higher than his regular-season averages. Moreover, in the series against the Hawks, he upped those numbers to 30.5 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.8 steals a game.
If Miami wants to go far in the playoffs, they’ll have to do it off the back of Butler.
Why the Atlanta Hawks will win: Trae Young stops being bored.
When the Hawks made it to the Eastern Conference Finals in the 2021 playoffs, Young announced himself to the world with authority. He averaged 28.8 points and 9.5 assists before getting knocked out by the eventual champion Bucks and made it clear that playoff basketball is where he belonged.
Then the Hawks got bored. They finished the next season 43-39, good for ninth in the East, and Young made it clear that the regular season wasn’t for him, calling it “a lot more boring than the playoffs.”
At times, the former All-NBA star has looked checked out this year. The pairing with Murray hasn’t been perfect and he’s had to adjust to a more off-ball role, something he hasn’t done at any point in his collegiate or pro career.
Regardless, he’s led the league’s third-most productive offence, averaging 26.2 points and 10.2 assists (2nd-best in the NBA), and though he’s still a defensive liability, Murray will be able to ease that load by taking on Herro.
Prediction: Miami Heat over Atlanta Hawks
The Heat are 10-3 against the Hawks over the last two seasons (including the playoffs), and in a single-game set, Butler is a better bet than Young.
When: Wednesday, April 12, 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT in Toronto
Regular Season Series: Toronto won season series, 2-1
Spread: Raptors -5.0 (via sports interaction)
Key Matchup: DeMar DeRozan vs. O.G. Anunoby
It had to be him. It had to be here.
The last time DeRozan took part in a playoff game in Scotiabank Arena was May 3, 2018. The Raptors got demolished, 128-110, by the Cleveland Cavaliers. That series would last two more games, ending in an unceremonious sweep.
DeRozan averaged 16.8 points in the four-game set, the lowest mark he's ever had over the course of a playoff series in his nine-year career up to that point. He shot only 44 per cent from the field and went 0-for-9 from deep over the four games, not taking a three-point shot in the final two games.
Guarding LeBron James was a rookie Anunoby. Talk about being thrown into the fire. He put up a fight, but there's only so much you can expect from a 20-year-old, as James put up 34.0 points per game on him.
Now, in this winner-take-all matchup, because of Anunoby's deployment as the defender tasked with taking on the opposing team's biggest threat, he'll likely be matched up against his former teammate for a good chunk of the night.
Anunoby has done a great job of shutting down DeRozan this season, with the latter averaging only 14 points in their three outings – his lowest mark against any team in the association. According to NBA Stats, he's limited his former teammate to only 14 points in 118.3 partial possessions.
If DeRozan wants to shake off his playoff demons and take down the team that traded him away, he'll have to do it in the arena that first possessed him against one of the best man-to-man defenders in the NBA.
Why the Toronto Raptors will win: Fred VanVleet has a good night.
In what has become a frequent talking point this season, the Raptors have been one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA. Since the All-Star break, they rank third-last in the league, shooting 33.2 per cent from deep on 31.3 attempts per game.
Some of their struggles from long range can be traced back to VanVleet, who's having a down year, shooting 34.2 per cent compared to his career 37.3 per cent from beyond the arc.
They haven't got a ton of volume shooting, so a lot of that load falls on the shoulders of the seventh-year guard, and a year removed from his first All-Star appearance, his ability to carry that load has been a mixed bag.
When VanVleet has hit four or more three-pointers this season, the Raptors are 13-9 record. His scoring on good nights can win games for this team.
On bad nights, though, because of how much he's relied on to get shots up, he can shoot the team out of the game.
Why the Chicago Bulls will win: They're just more clutch.
When the game is coming down to the wire, the Bulls have two guys in Zach LaVine and DeRozan who you trust with the ball in their hands. The Raptors have zero.
In games within five points this season, the Raptors are 8-16. This team has been unable to close games when they have a lead, or they've been unable to complete comebacks for close wins.
The Bulls, though 7-12 in those games, had seven of those losses come in October and November, when the team looked like a shell of what it is now.
They've gotten hot since the All-Star break, going 14-9 while carrying the second-best defensive rating (111.9) and third-best net-rating (5.5) league-wide.
Additionally, DeRozan ranks second in the league in clutch points (points during last five minutes of a game with a five-point differential), with 4.7 per game, while LaVine ranks 23rd, with 2.9. The highest Raptor on that list is Pascal Siakam, with 1.8 per game, good for 70th in the league among qualified players.
Prediction: Chicago Bulls over Toronto Raptors
Play-in Pat Bev's reputation in one-and-done games and Toronto's inability to win close games will ultimately be their downfall this year.
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