Everything you need to know ahead of the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery

The fortunes of multiple NBA franchises will change on Sunday when the NBA Draft Lottery takes place and unlike last year, when teams were vying to win the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes, there's no consensus No. 1 choice.

French forwards Zaccharie Risacher and Alex Sarr, along with National Champions Donovan Clingan and Stephon Castle are among a handful of prospects in contention for the top spot in this year's draft. Meaning, as the 14 teams in the lottery find out what order they'll be in, they'll also have to start mapping out how the other squads evaluate the talent.

Add in the fact a couple of franchises could lose their draft pick depending on how the lottery balls shake out, and it's setting up to be a night filled with intrigue.

In anticipation of the Draft Lottery which will take place at 3 p.m. ET/12 p.m. PT on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+, here's everything you need to know.

There's plenty of minutia surrounding the actual process of the lottery balls and how they get drawn but the most important thing to know is that the drawing is only done to determine the first four picks in the draft. The remaining lottery teams then get positioned in inverse order of their 2023-24 regular season records.

Here's the minutia. Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 are placed in a lottery machine equalling 1,001 possible combinations. Prior to the lottery 1,000 of the 1,001 combinations are assigned amongst the 14 participating teams.

All 14 numbered balls are mixed in the lottery machine, then one is selected. The balls are then re-mixed and the process repeats until four numbered balls are drawn, determining the chosen combination. The order in which they get selected doesn't matter. The team that was assigned that combination subsequently receives the No. 1 pick, and the same process is repeated for picks two through four.

Teams eligible for the Draft Lottery are the 14 that missed the NBA playoffs. The final odds were determined following the conclusion of the regular season to settle tie-breakers between identical records. Keep in mind, the lottery ensures the team with the worst record (Detroit Pistons) can finish no lower than the fifth pick.

Here are the finalized pre-draft odds:

1. Detroit Pistons: 14%, 140 combinations
2. Washington Wizards: 14%, 140 combinations
3. Charlotte Hornets: 13.3%, 133 combinations
4. Portland Trail Blazers: 13.2%, 132 combinations
5. San Antonio Spurs: 10.5%, 105 combinations
6. Toronto Raptors: 9%, 90 combinations
7. Memphis Grizzlies: 7.5%, 75 combinations
8. Utah Jazz: 6%, 60 combinations
9. Houston Rockets (via Brooklyn): 4.5%, 45 combinations
10. Atlanta Hawks: 3%, 30 combinations
11. Chicago Bulls: 2%, 20 combinations
12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Houston): 1.5%, 15 combinations
13. Sacramento Kings: 0.8%, 8 combinations
14. Golden State Warriors: 0.7%, 7 combinations

Aside from having to navigate the usual uncertainties of the lottery, four teams are hoping for additional favour from the basketball gods in order to keep their picks in this year's draft.

The Toronto Raptors finished with a 25-57 record and subsequently have the sixth-best pre-lottery odds of landing the No. 1 pick. A top prospect joining a now-rebuilding core would be an ideal consolation for the tumultuous season Toronto just had, however, they owe the San Antonio Spurs a top-six protected pick for the deal to acquire Jakob Poeltl.

If the Raptors end up with one of picks 7-14 the selection goes to the Spurs, but if they land between 1-6 they keep the pick and the conditional selection gets conveyed to 2025. Toronto has a nine per cent chance of landing the No. 1 pick, 37.2 per cent odds of slotting into the top four and a 45.8 per cent shot of staying in the top six and keeping their pick.

Meanwhile, Utah are at (very minimal) risk of losing their selection to division rival Oklahoma City, after finishing with a 31-51 record. In 2021 the Jazz sent Derrick Favours to the Thunder in a salary-dumping move and included a 2024 top-10 protected pick to sweeten the deal. Utah is No. 8 (pre-lottery) and needs to remain in the top 10 to keep their pick this year. If they stay, the conditional pick conveys to 2025, but if they fall out they pay up.

Thankfully for Jazz fans, they have a 99.5 per cent chance of remaining in the top 10 for the 2024 draft.

If somehow they do fall below No. 10 and lose the selection, it would add another first-round pick to OKC's already full treasure chest of draft capital. The No. 1 seed Thunder potentially have seven first-round picks over the next two seasons. Bravo, general manager Sam Presti.

Speaking of which, even though it's highly unlikely Oklahoma City cashes in on Utah's pick this year they have another potential lottery pick courtesy of Houston. When the Thunder traded franchise icon Russell Westbrook to the Rockets for Chris Paul in 2019, Houston included a top-four protected first-round pick.

The Rockets are at No. 9 (pre-lottery) and have a 7.2 per cent chance of staying in the top four and keeping their selection. If they don't, they hand the draft pick to OKC who could end up walking away with two lottery picks this year despite finishing with a 57-25 record, tied for the best in the Western Conference. Again, bravo Presti.

Houston won't need to sweat losing that pick too much though as they'll have Brooklyn's pick (unprotected) thanks to the James Harden trade from 2021. The Nets pick has 20.2 per cent odds of landing in the top four and a 79.7 per cent chance of sticking in the 9-12 range.

Then there are the 2022 champion Warriors who currently sit at No. 14 (pre-lottery) and could lose their pick to the Portland Trailblazers. How that came to be is a bit of a journey. Golden State sent longtime veteran Andre Iguodala to Memphis in 2019 to shed salary and included a top-four protected pick to make it happen. The Grizzlies then sent that pick to the Celtics as part of the Marcus Smart acquisition in 2023, which Boston promptly flipped as part of a package to get Jrue Holiday from the Blazers not long after.

All of which equates to the Warriors now owing the Trail Blazers their pick unless they finish in the top four. Golden State fans shouldn't hold their breath as they'll need a mathematical miracle since they only have a 3.4 per cent chance of moving into the top four.

Every draft is riddled with uncertainty, whether it be the talent being evaluated or teams hoping the odds land in their favour. Then there's the added complexity that many experts have written off this draft class as the weakest since 2013.

It leaves basketball fans with plenty of questions, eagerly awaiting answers.

Keep in mind, even as infamous as the 2013 class was, having a lone All-Star in Victor Oladipo produced from the lottery, there are always diamonds in the rough. That was the year Milwaukee selected two-time MVP, champion and finals MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo with the 15th overall pick.

Teams and draft analysts can lament this class like they've done in years past but there will be NBA calibre talent produced from this crop. It'll be on the franchises to do the work and find out who those players will be.

At the very least, Sunday will be the first falling domino towards getting clarity. Once those lottery balls shake out, let the questions fly. Because on June 27th when the 2024 NBA Draft takes place, we'll start getting some answers.