Four storylines to look out for in an intense Knicks-Heat Game 3

As the age-old saying goes, a series doesn’t start until a home team loses. Well in what was projected to be a heater right out of the gates, the Miami Heat stole home-court advantage, winning Game 1 and silencing a rowdy Madison Square Garden. 

Though the New York Knicks recovered and grabbed Game 2 in their building, it’s clear now that the series is as on as it can get. 

Injuries have been the story of the matchup so far, with the Knicks’ Julius Randle missing Game 1 and the Heat’s Jimmy Butler absent for Game 2. Both are expected to take the court on Saturday, giving fans a look at what the two teams project to be at full-strength.

Is the Knicks’ shooting performance from Game 2 a sign of things to come? Are we in store for another Kyle Lowry defensive masterclass?

With the series heading back to Miami, here are four things to keep an eye on during Game 3 of the Battle of the Underdogs. You can catch the game on Sportsnet at 3:30 p.m. ET / 12:30 p.m. PT. 

Winning Game 1 was essential for Miami. Despite Butler going down and playing noticeably hobbled late in that game, the Heat pulled off the road win. This allowed them to virtually play with house money in Game 2 and give their star a chance to recover. 

Now, with the series tied at one apiece, Butler is back to defend the home-court advantage they seized away from the Knicks in the first game. But the question remains, was this break enough time for Butler to nurse his injury? 

When he sustained the injury late in Game 1, it was clear he wasn’t at full strength. The rest of the contest he played much more off-ball, allowing his teammates to do the majority of the shot-creation. He still managed to draw three fouls in the fourth quarter, nailing all six of his free throws, but his role was drastically diminished, only putting up one field goal attempt in the frame. 

Butler has been the story of the playoffs so far, at times looking like the best player in the league when the lights shine the brightest. Though the Knicks found ways to get the ball out of his hands, he still scored a team-high 25 points and snatched four key offensive rebounds leading to five second-chance points. 

Miami played well in his absence, with their assortment of role players all making a mark in a game that came down to the wire despite the Knicks’ big three of Randle, RJ Barrett and Jalen Brunson scoring a combined 79 points. 

With Butler back in the lineup, and the Knicks fielding a full team after Randle’s return in Game 2, what will a matchup between these two squads look like at full-strength?

In Game 2, Randle had inarguably the best playoff game of his career. He scored 25 points, grabbed 12 rebounds and dished out eight assists, finishing with a game score of 21.8, the highest he’s had in his 11 career postseason outings. 

He’s been given a lot of grief for shrinking under the bright lights of the playoffs and rightfully so. Over the 10 prior playoff games, he averaged 16.2 points on .315/.284/.787 shooting splits.

So to see him perform back to his regular season standards is a massive change of direction after struggling in the first round against Cleveland.

What’s more impressive is how Randle’s role evolved in his return from injury. He became more of a distributor for the Knicks, finishing with eight assists, the most he’s had in a playoff game and tied for the most he’s had all season. Even Jessica Alba couldn't help but be impressed.

The Heat chose to double-team Randle from the jump. He found great looks on skip passes to the perimeter to break Miami’s man defence, then when they switched to zone he was a great connector, always seeming to make the right pass around the outside to the open man. 

With Randle acting as a distributor, the Knicks played their most efficient offensive game of the post-season so far, finishing with a 124.1 offensive rating, .583 true shooting percentage and .549 effective field goal percentage. Can they keep it up?

It’s been said in reference to Barrett before, but why not say it again? He’s starting to look like the guy everyone expected him to be, and he couldn’t have chosen a better time to do it. 

Since Game 3 of their series against the Cavaliers, Barrett has averaged 23.2 points on .525/.367/.656 shooting splits while grabbing 5.2 rebounds and dishing out 3.6 assists. His offensive rating of 120 blows out his regular season rating of 107. He's also improved his defensive rating from 118 in the regular season to 110 during the five-game stretch. 

Though Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau decided to sit the Mississauga, Ont., native in the closing stages of their Game 2 win, that decision shouldn’t take away from Barrett and should instead be a testament to his desire to win and his understanding of what it takes to achieve that. 

“Look, RJ has played terrific for us. Sometimes you need a different matchup,” said Thibodeau after the win. “So when we got the matchup and then we got going, we got into a little bit of a rhythm, so we wanted to ride it out.”

Barrett, though he didn’t play in crunch-time, made a clear impact in the game, scoring 24 on the night including 16 in the first quarter. 

Heat coach Erik Spoelstra has also made adjustments tailored to stopping Barrett in particular, choosing to clog the lane to prevent his emphatic drives to the basket. The Knicks responded, letting it fly from the perimeter with 16 made threes, their most in the post-season so far. 

Broadway Barrett is starting to look like the guy the Knicks thought they were getting when they drafted him third overall.

During the Spoelstra era, Miami has always seemed to be able to extract the most from any one of their role-players on any given night.

Such has been the case in the playoffs this year, with massive performances coming almost out of nowhere from guys like Kyle Lowry, Kevin Love or Duncan Robinson.

The Heat aren’t exactly a deep team, but the way they move the ball around allows any of their guys to have a strong outing any night of the week. With guys like Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo out, they’ve needed those performances from guys usually further down on their pecking order.

Lowry had a massive outing on both ends in Game 1, scoring 18 points (with nine coming in the fourth quarter) and blocking four shots (three in the fourth quarter). In Game 2 Caleb Martin scored 22 while drilling four-of-eight from deep.

However, those performances generally haven’t happened from the same player two nights in a row.

Between his 18-point Game 1 performance and 15-point Game 5 performance against Milwaukee, Kevin Love scored 16 combined points in the three other outings. Max Strus, who scored 17 in their last game against the Knicks had only scored in double-digits once in the six prior post-season games.

The Heat’s highly versatile, movement-oriented offence is a problem for any team, forcing opposing squads to overplay on their actions. But it also means that one of those deeper bench guys from the Heat will need to have their game.

So whose game is it going to be for Miami? Will we get another Lowry or Love game? Will Duncan Robinson rediscover his shooting stroke and have a game of his own? Or will we finally get the long-awaited Bam Adebayo game?