Heat vs. Hawks preview: Miami's defence will have hands full with Trae Young

The Miami Heat face a rising Atlanta Hawks side who managed to win two play-in games to snag the eighth seed in the 2022 NBA playoffs.

Atlanta was the cinderella team last year, pulling off an upset over the Philadelphia 76ers for a run to the conference finals, but have underperformed this year up until the All-Star break, where they turned their season around with a 15-9 finish to the campaign.

Miami has been relatively unbothered on the year, by comparison, sitting atop the East for most of the year despite several key absences.

Season series: 3-1 Heat

Heat starting 5: Kyle Lowry, Max Strus, Jimmy Butler, PJ Tucker, Bam Adebayo

Heat bench: Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin, Dewayne Dedmon 

Hawks starting 5: Trae Young, Kevin Huerter, Deandre Hunter, Danilo Gallinari, Onyeka Ogkonwu

Hawks bench: Delon Wright, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Gorgui Dieng

Heat: 53-29 | No. 12 on offence | No. 4 on defence | No. 6 net rating

Hawks: 43-39 | No. 2 offence | No. 26 defence | No. 14 net rating

To win series: MIA -405, ATL +320 (Courtesy FanDuel at time of publication)

To win championship: MIA +750, ATL +12000 (Courtesy FanDuel at time of publication)

The Heat have quietly gone about their business all season as one of the best teams in the league. The free agent addition of Kyle Lowry gave them a new dimension, with a quarterback who sets the tempo for their attack to add to what was already a very solid foundation. Miami is set with battle-tested veterans, and are good on both sides of the ball.

When their three-point shooting is on point, the Heat are nearly unbeatable, but their shooters do create issues for their defensive structure. A high-profile run in between Jimmy Butler and Erik Spoelstra gave the appearance of dissolution, but Miami rattled off a 9-2 finish to the season to secure the top seed. 

Forget how they started the season, what matters now is how the Hawks finished the year. They held the sixth-best record in the league after the All-Star break and ranked fifth in offensive rating. They have the slipperiest point guard in the league in Trae Young, who tormented Charlotte and Cleveland in the play-in games for a combined 62 points and 20 assists while outdueling All-Stars in LaMelo Ball and Darius Garland. The Hawks did lose Clint Capela in their win over Cleveland, but they have a very capable replacement in Onyeka Ogkonwu who is more effective on defence.

Young is deadly when he gets going, and the Hawks have plenty of perimeter creators in Huerter, Bogdanovic, and Hunter. Their main strategy is to overwhelm with offence to mask what is an average defence at best. 

The key matchup is Young against the Heat’s defence. The Heat don’t have a natural assignment to cover Young, as Lowry is lost for quickness and Butler is too bulky, and Young will be actively hunting for Herro, Strus, and Duncan Robinson. But the Heat are very smart, and they will likely trap Young to force the ball out of his hands, and take their chances with their athleticism and size being able to cover up in rotation.

Spolestra’s main challenge here is whether he allows Young to torch his guards in isolation while shutting off their secondary shooters, or if he neutralizes Young at the expense of opening up the team.  

Miami wins if they play their game and stop Young, and odds are they will. Miami has two efficient creators in Lowry and Butler with the starting group, and a versatile scorer in Adebayo in the middle. Herro is in the midst of a breakout season, and will aggressively look for his offence both on and off the ball. The Heat also have depth on the roster and should have the advantage in bench production, especially since the Hawks lost a starter recently. They would be wise to shelve their struggling defenders, such as Robinson and Dedmon, and should probably consider going small to get even quicker on defence. They are the favourites for a reason.

Young can single-handedly swing a series. He’s that lethal offensively. When he is on a roll, there is no shot he can’t hit between a 40-foot pull-up or a floater in the lane over top of rushing 7-footers. His quickness should give him a step against any individual defender the Heat throw at him, and he’s also a brilliant passer. Atlanta probably won’t be able to guard the Heat, although Hunter is an emerging 3-and-D option who could swing the series if he meets the challenge of guarding Butler, but Young is always a weakness that Atlanta works tirelessly to hide. Still, if the Hawks can goad the Heat into an up-tempo game and enough outside shots fall, an upset is not entirely out of the question.