This year, picking the NBA’s individual awards has a new wrinkle: The player must play in a minimum of 65 games, and for 20 minutes in those games, to qualify for the year-end individual awards. In a move designed to counteract load management, the new CBA rules will undoubtedly render at least a few otherwise qualified players ineligible.
Did that affect how I make these picks? Kind of, in the sense that there were some players (like Kawhi Leonard, Ja Morant and Victor Wembanyama) who I’m avoiding. And it certainly had no impact on my first bet.
We’re going to do this a little differently this year. I’m going to make my actual picks, titled “The Pick” in every section, and then I’m going to make a “Best Bet.” That best bet isn’t necessarily a bet I think is extremely likely to hit, but a bet with some nice juice that I could see hitting. And I’m not picking Clutch Player of the Year because it’s a silly award that I don’t find interesting.
The Pick: Boston Celtics +400
The Best Bet: L.A. Lakers +1200
There are only six legitimate title contenders in the NBA this season: Denver, Milwaukee, Boston, Phoenix, Golden State and Los Angeles. Ok, seven, because I refuse to count the Miami Heat out. Beyond those teams, any bet is a donation to your sportsbook.
Repeating is hard, and top-heavy teams often need injury luck to go their way. That eliminates the Nuggets, Bucks and Suns. Of the remaining contenders, the Celtics (+400) seem poised to finally break through and win a chip after five conference finals appearance in seven seasons. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are both in that 25-28 age range where stars tend to peak, the squad is deep, versatile, and they’ve added a calming, steady presence at the point guard spot in Jrue Holiday. But +400 isn’t enough juice. It isn’t sexy.
The Lakers (+1200) are sexy. Their stars have done it before, they have Lebron James giving off big time “lion in winter” vibes, they have size and versatility at nearly every position, and frankly they looked like the second-best team in the NBA last year during the playoffs.
The Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo +600
The Best Bet: Stephen Curry +1400
I made the case in my Western Conference over/under column for why the Golden State Warriors could be a 50-win team this season. In short, this roster is an improvement over last year’s, and that team still managed to win 44 games during what turned into a season from hell. If the Warriors finish top-3 in the West, Steph Curry (+1400) is going to have a very strong MVP case. There are delicious narratives to spin, about how a guy at his age and his size shouldn’t be this dominant, about how long he’s been one of the faces of the league, about how close his magical career is to being over.
On the opposite end of the career spectrum, Jayson Tatum (+850) is worth a small investment, especially since it dovetails nicely with my expectation that Boston will be the best team in the league. Of course, Nikola Jokic (+400) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (+600) remain the two best players in the league, and could very well both finish as the best player on a 1-seed.
It’s been three years since Giannis won his second MVP, and I expect voter fatigue to give way to the idea that…maybe two MVPs isn’t truly illustrative of how dominant he’s been this decade. The Greek Freak has a narrative angle, he’s either the best or second-best player in the league and his team is going to be very good. Giannis is the pick.
The Pick: Chet Holmgren +450
The Best Bet: Brandon Miller +2800
It’s a bit of a zag not to pick Wembanyama here. The ceiling is infinite for the kid, and I do believe the hype. But I don’t believe he’s going to play 65 games. He’s got a body type that historically lends itself to lower body injuries, he’s on a team that isn’t trying to contend this season, and the Spurs are the team that invented load management.
I think there’s a strong chance Chet Holmgren (+450) is 90% as productive as Wembanyama, on a significantly better team. I’m no less concerned about his ability to stay healthy, but Oklahoma City is going to be trying to make the playoffs this year, and it’s more likely he plays through some pain than his French counterpart.
I like Brandon Miller (+2800) as a juicier pick. He’ll be playing with an elite set up man in LaMelo Ball, a guy who already turned a tweener small forward/power forward into a 20 point per game scorer in Miles Bridges. And with Bridges involved in another domestic violence case, there should be minutes to go around. It wouldn’t surprise me if he leads all rookies in scoring, which is often enough to win this award.
The Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo +800
The Best Bet: Draymond Green +1800
This category is wide open, with Brook Lopez and Wembanyama as the only guys with top-10 odds that I can’t see winning this. Replacing the best defensive guard in the league with Damian Lillard should allow a ton of opportunities for Giannis to produce the kind of eye-popping defensive feats that have become his calling card, and if Brook Lopez remains a great interior presence, the Bucks might remain a top defence despite the loss of Jrue Holiday. If that happens, Giannis Antetokounmpo (+800) could have the inside track for his second DPOY.
I noticed a narrative building last season when Draymond Green missed time due to injury. With Green off the floor, the Warriors had a defensive rating of 118.4, which would have been 29th place in the NBA. With him active, their DRTG dropped to 114.8, firmly a middle-of-the-pack number.
If the Warriors return to form as I expect them to, that will likely mean a return to being a top-8 defence in the league, an effort which will undoubtedly be lead by Green. Add to that the possible narrative that one DPOY for a guy widely regarded as the best defensive player of his generation, and the blueprint for Draymond Green (+1800) to win DPOY is there.
I’m staying away from the reigning winner, Jaren Jackson Jr. (+550) because he’s had an extremely hard time staying out of foul trouble when he’s not playing with Steven Adams. And despite the fact that JJJ is the most impactful individual defender in the league, Adams being out for the season scares me.
The Pick: Mikal Bridges +700
The Best Bet: Cade Cunningham +1200
I was tempted to make Mikal Bridges (+700) my pick and my best bet, because there’s enough juice there for a nice payout on a guy who I think already has the inside lane in this race. He put up 26 points per game after being traded to Brooklyn, and a full season of that combined with his already elite defence is a strong case without even considering the possibility that he’s actually gotten better.
I like Cade Cunningham (+1200) as a flier. This isn’t an award where team success matters, and Cade has already put up 18/5/5 in his brief, injury-riddled career. A healthy season and slightly improved shooting efficiency could make the Pistons guard hard to deny.
The Pick: Norman Powell +1000
The Best Bet: Derrick White +1600 or Jrue Holiday +2000
There are two types of players who win this award: The guy who scores the most points off the bench (Tyler Herro, Jordan Clarkson), and the guy who is an elite role player on a title contender (Malcolm Brogdon, Montrezl Harrell).
Norman Powell (+1000) is a pure bucket-getter who fits the first archetype well, though he’s only played 65+ games in a season three times in his 10-year career. Either Derrick White (+1600) or Jrue Holiday (+2000) are going to be a great pick, because Boston can’t start both of them. My plan is to buy in on whichever one of them doesn’t start opening day, because Boston is going to be great, and White and Holiday might be two of the four best perimeter defenders in the league.
As always, play safe, and don’t chase.
COMMENTS
When submitting content, please abide by our submission guidelines, and avoid posting profanity, personal attacks or harassment. Should you violate our submissions guidelines, we reserve the right to remove your comments and block your account. Sportsnet reserves the right to close a story’s comment section at any time.