NBA All-Star Skills Challenge betting odds and predictions

NBA All-Star Weekend is here, and with most of the league on vacation, us gamblers are left with but one choice.

It’s time to bet on a bunch of semi-competitive exhibition events.

I’ve always stayed away from the All-Star Game itself because there’s no telling who is going to try, who is going to show up hungover, and who will actually play significant minutes. I also just don’t like betting on a live game in which neither team cares.

Forget about the game. All-Star Saturday is where it’s at. The Three Point Contest is usually the most interesting event of the weekend, the Dunk Contest is a high variance one-in-four proposition, and the Skills Competition is just weird enough to offer some fun action.

Plus, we get a bonus this year: The one-on-one three-point shootout between Steph Curry and the WNBA’s Sabrina Ionescu. We’re betting on it all, so let’s get into it.

• Damian Lillard (+420)
• Tyrese Haliburton (+440)
• Trae Young (+600)
• Malik Beasley (+650)
• Donovan Mitchell (+700)
• Jalen Brunson (+700)
• Karl-Anthony Towns (+700)
• Lauri Markkanen (+700)

There are two things I look for in a great Three Point Shootout Contestant. These dudes are all great shooters, that’s why they were invited, but what separates them in this context? A quick release, and low-energy shooting form. Guys who have significant jumps in their jump shot often struggle in later rounds as they gas out a little, and can struggle to get their shots off quick enough as they reset out of that jump. It’s the reason JJ Reddick always struggled here.

With those factors in mind, I’m being pulled in two directions. Karl-Anthony Towns (+700) essentially takes a set shot (without jumping), releases quickly, he won the last time he competed and offers the longest odds in the field. He’s the best value play.

But I think Tyrese Haliburton (+440) is going to win. He doesn’t have the quickest release, but he barely jumps, even in live-game action. The Indian guard also has a unique advantage: He’s shooting in his home arena. No one in the field knows these rims and is as comfortable with the depth and background as Haliburton is.

• Mac McClung (-280)
• Jaylen Brown (+500)
• Jacob Toppin (+800)
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. (+950)

He’s only played a total of 65 NBA minutes (none this season), but Mac McClung’s (-280) sheer creativity has revitalized the dunk contest. He is a professional dunker, for all intents and purposes, and he’ll very likely win again. As such a heavy favourite, there’s not a lot of fun to be had wagering on him.

That brings me to my dark horse: Jaylen Brown (+500). In its heyday, the dunk contest attracted the NBA’s top talent. Michael Jordan, Dominique Wilkins, Vince Carter. All Stars. The lack of participation from actual All-Stars has been seen as the primary cause for the lulls in public interest in the contest over the years. The last time a current All-Star participated, it was John Wall in 2014. Before that, Blake Griffin in 2011.

Both guys won.

I like Brown as the value pick, despite MacClung’s overwhelming bonafides.

• Team Pacers | Tyrese Haliburton, Bennedict Mathurin, Myles Turner (+125)
• Team All Stars | Scottie Barnes, Tyrese Maxey, Trae Young (+170)
• Team Top Picks | Paolo Banchero, Anthony Edwards, Victor Wembanyama (+230)

There’s no point giving this one a ton of thought or effort. It’s not like the participants do. Barring anything weird, like inexplicably taking 20 attempts to hit a target with a bounce pass, the Skills Challenge comes down to one thing: Who cares enough to try?

I like Team Pacers (+125) for the same reason the books do. They’re playing in front of their fans, and are motivated to try.

· Stephen Curry (-250)

· Sabrina Ionescu (+200)

It lacks the antagonism of the various Battle of the Sexes contest of old, but the NBA’s best shooter and his WNBA analog will face off in a one-on-one. It’s the weekend’s additional oddity, and frankly, the most fun of it’s kind since Curry’s teammate Draymond Green and comedian Kevin Hart faced off in a similar contest.

The odds strongly favour Curry. He is, after all, the greatest shooter in the history of the sport, and has been stellar in three point shootouts throughout his career. But there’s a dirty little non-secret about Steph.

He sucks with charity on the line. He once famously missed nine consecutive shots with $500,000 to the Sager Strong foundation on the line. And this contest with Ionescu will see donations made to the NBA Foundation (in addition to Curry and Ionescu’s own personal charities) for every shot made.

All that, plus the fact that Sabrina Ionescu will have the hopes and dreams of women’s hoops strapped firmly to her back. Give me Ionescu (+200) to pull off the stunning upset.

As always, play safe and don’t chase.