NBA Awards Predictions: Can anyone unseat Joel Embiid as MVP?

LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Steph Curry are all holding firm in terms of their status amongst the NBA elite, but the 2023-24 NBA season is increasingly showing us that the future is now.

From great rookies Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren already looking like stars to Canada's own Shai Gilgeous-Alexander making the case for being the best guard in the league and the likes of Tyrese Maxey, Tyrese Haliburton and Scottie Barnes making a leap, the depth of high-end talent in the NBA seems to be at an all-time high.

All that to say, with a third of the season complete, it’s a great time to take a look at the leading candidates for end-of-season awards such as Most Valuable Player, Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year and Coach of the Year.

For length purposes, All-NBA and All-Defensive teams will not be discussed below.

Before we dig in, there is a key new wrinkle everyone should be aware of. The NBA has now stipulated that players must play a minimum of 65 regular-season games to be eligible for individual awards. As a result, there are those who miss the cut in the discussion below as they aren’t on pace to do so. Devin Booker, for example, has played at a tremendous level this season but missing nine of the first 27 games leaves him on track to play just 55 games.

MVP RACE COULD BE ONE FOR THE AGES

Joel Embiid: 35.1 PTS, 11.8 REB, 5.9 AST, 1.9 BLK, 1.1 STL. Sixers: 19-8

The reigning MVP, Joel Embiid is arguably having his best season yet. It has been no Harden, no problem in Philadelphia as Embiid has found an even higher gear, scoring more points (843) than minutes played (819), which would make him the first player to do so since Wilt Chamberlain in 1961-62. His two-man game with Tyrese Maxey has been phenomenal and a big reason his assists are also at a career-high mark. The defence has been great, too. Oh, the Sixers also happen to have the league’s best net rating and are a couple games behind the Celtics for the best record in the East.

If Embiid keeps this up, he could become the third straight player to win back-to-back MVPs after Giannis Antetokounmpo did so in 2019 and 2020 and Nikola Jokic won consecutively in 2021 and 2022. The only bone to pick with Embiid’s MVP case may be that although the Sixers have absolutely decimated sub-.500 teams to the tune of a 13-1 record, the team is an unflattering 6-7 against plus-.500 teams.

Giannis Antetokounmpo: 30.9 PTS, 11.0 REB, 5.4 AST, 1.4 STL, 1.2 BLK. Bucks: 21-7

Nikola Jokic: 26.5 PTS, 12.4 REB, 9.3 AST, 1.2 STL, 0.8 BLK. Nuggets 19-10

What of Jokic and Antetokounmpo, you ask? That the Nuggets are 19-10 despite Jamal Murray missing 14 games is a testament to just how good the two-time MVP and reigning Finals MVP is. Jokic is a victim of his own success, though, and his field-goal percentage of 53.9 is his lowest since 2019-20, as is his three-point (32.0) percentage. His free-throw percentage of 78.7 is a career low. While Denver is a perfect 9-0 against sub-.500 teams, Murray’s absence has been felt most against plus-.500 teams, with the team’s record sitting at 10-10 in those games.

Antetokounmpo has used the arrival of Damian Lillard to kick his efficiency into overdrive. He is shooting a career-best 61.1 per cent from the field, undoubtedly in part due to the space Lillard has opened up for him. He also has the two highest-scoring games of the season, with a 65-point night and a 54-point game, both coming against the Indiana Pacers. After a slow start defensively, both he and the team have started to improve on that end of the floor, which should leave Antetokounmpo right on Embiid’s heels throughout this race.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 30.7 PTS, 5.8 REB, 6.3 AST, 2.8 STL, 0.8 BLK. Thunder 18-8

Luka Doncic: 33.2 PTS, 8.5 REB, 9.0 AST, 1.3 STL, 0.5 BLK. Mavericks 16-11

After outplaying Luka Doncic and Slovenia for Canada at the FIBA World Cup in the summer, Hamilton, Ont., native Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has carried over that trend into the NBA and is ahead of Doncic in the MVP race as things stand. Doncic has been outstanding, averaging close to a triple-double and shouldering an even heavier burden in the absence of Kyrie Irving, but Gilgeous-Alexander’s two-way play is a separator and another big factor in the Thunder holding the West’s second-best record.

Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t just fifth in the league in points per game, he’s leading the league in steals. With close to a block per game, he is fulfilling his potential on both ends of the floor to make the Thunder a force to be reckoned with. There’s a case to be made that he’s even ahead of Jokic in the MVP race as things stand. Game winners like this one against the reigning champs below only further that case:

Jayson Tatum: 26.8 PTS, 8.7 REB, 4.2 AST, 1.0 STL, 0.5 BLK. Celtics 21-6

Anthony Edwards 24.7 PTS, 5.5 REB, 5.1 AST, 1.3 STL, 0.5 BLK. Wolves 21-6

This is more of a hat-tip to each of the best players on the two teams tied for the best record. That has never not mattered in an MVP discussion, though the narrative — at least for now — seems to be that these are teams where the whole is functioning so well that it surpasses what Tatum or Edwards is doing individually.

The additions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis have been huge for Boston while Derrick White has more than embraced a larger role. Tatum, in fact, is averaging three fewer points than he did last season and slightly fewer assists as well.

For Minnesota, while Edwards has certainly shown strides in his playmaking and upped his free-throw rate by 10 per cent, one could even make the case that Rudy Gobert has been the most pivotal aspect of their improvement as it is, in fact, Minnesota’s No. 1-ranked defence that has turned people’s heads.

Kawhi Leonard: 24.4 PTS, 5.9 REB, 3.5 AST, 1.5 STL, 0.7BLK. Clippers 17-11

This is a bit of a wild card to monitor. After a 3-7 start, the Clippers have gone 14-4 and recently had a nine-game win streak snapped. During that time, Leonard has looked like the man who has two Finals MVP awards to his name. Over his last 12 games, Leonard has averaged 29.3 points on 59.3 per cent shooting overall and an astonishing 51.7 per cent from three, and he’s knocked down 92.3 per cent of his free throws as well.

The biggest piece in all this? Leonard has played in each of the Clippers’ 27 games this season until sitting out the team’s most recent defeat to the Thunder. Again, something to monitor.

HOLMGREN AHEAD OF WEMBY FOR ROY

Wembanyama, individually, has been absolutely spectacular and as advertised. He is averaging 18.5 points, 10.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 3.0 blocks and 1.4 steals through 25 games and has provided several mind-boggling highlights courtesy of his ridiculous eight-foot wingspan. When he isn’t doing any of that, he’s making time to learn some hockey from fellow No. 1 overall draft pick Connor Bedard:

Worth paying even more attention to of late are his numbers since being shifted to the centre position. Wembanyama started the season as a power forward alongside Zach Collins at centre, but Collins was moved to the bench five games ago. In those five games, while the rookie phenom’s scoring has remained the same, allowing him to play closer to the basket on the defensive end has sent his rebounds skyrocketing to 14 per game and his blocks to an astonishing four per game.

How significant is Wembanyama’s defensive impact? The team ranks 13th in defensive efficiency with him on the floor and dead-last at 30th when he isn’t.

What could Chet Holmgren possibly be doing to top all of that? Well, how about 17.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 2.7 blocks while shooting 53.1 per cent from the field and 38.1 per cent from three for a team that is sitting pretty at second in the West? The Spurs, meanwhile, sit at the bottom of the West and Wembanyama has shot only 43.5 per cent from the field and 27.9 per cent from three.

Holmgren is certainly benefitting from playing alongside a legitimate MVP candidate in Gilgeous-Alexander and a generally deeper team, but the stark contrast in records and the extent to which Holmgren has contributed to the Thunder’s winning ways should have Holmgren in the lead. If that hasn’t won you over, how about this play, where Holmgren went off the backboard to himself for the slam:

Other notable rookie standout performers include Miami’s Jaime Jacquez Jr. and Dallas’s Derrick Lively.

BIGS DOMINATING DPOY CONVERSATION

While Marcus Smart was able to sneak in a win for guards in 2022, this award has generally been dominated by big men. That trend looks set to continue as the leading candidates for this year’s award are Minnesota’s Rudy Gobert and the L.A. Lakers’ Anthony Davis.

The Wolves lead the league in defensive efficiency and Gobert is the prime reason. The Frenchman has rediscovered the rim protection that made him a three-time Defensive Player of the Year in Utah, and some improved defence on the perimeter where he doesn’t have to constantly try to put out one fire after another has aided that cause.

Where this award could get tricky is a possible popularity contest. Davis has been absolutely terrific this season, with averages of 24 points, a league-leading 12.6 rebounds per game, 2.5 blocks and 1.2 steals, but more importantly he’s played in 26 of the Lakers' 28 games this season. He is the rare big man who can defend along the perimeter as well as in the paint and his immense ability on that end of the floor is a major reason the Lakers have the eighth-best defence.

Both rookie bigs Wembanyama and Holmgren are in the conversation as well, while Milwaukee centre Brook Lopez continues to quietly be one of the best defensive bigs in the league.

Toronto forward OG Anunoby has mostly maintained his stellar defensive reputation but the Raptors have performed too poorly as a team for it to matter. New Orleans Pelicans forward Herbert Jones has arguably been the best wing defender in the league this season, while Jrue Holiday remains a standout at the guard position.

MAXEY LEADING RACE FOR MIP

Tyrese Maxey zoomed past the All-Star sign and has made himself a superstar as well, improving his scoring from 20.3 points last season to 26.1 points this season, and nearly doubling his assists from 3.5 last season to 6.7 this season. That Philadelphia has looked so good this season doesn’t come down to just Embiid levelling up from last season’s MVP campaign.

This also wouldn’t be the first time Nick Nurse has stepped into a situation as head coach and helped completely unleash a player after Pascal Siakam won the 2019 Most Improved Player award in Nurse’s first season as head coach of the Raptors.

It’s a pity Toronto isn’t better, as Scottie Barnes may well have been the best bet otherwise. He has upped his scoring by over five points to 20.6 points per game, his rebounding is up from 6.6 last season to 9.2, and his assist, steal and block numbers are also improved. Most impressively, though, Barnes has catapulted his three-point shooting from 28.1 per cent last season to 38.1 per cent this season. That type of improvement year-over-year puts him in rarified air.

After making his first All-Star appearance last season, Tyrese Haliburton has shown the good kind of greed by wanting more and doing more, not just for himself, but his team. He has elevated his status to superstardom by serving as the engine to the league’s best offence, leading the league in assists with 12.0 per game, and carrying the Indiana Pacers to the inaugural In-Season Tournament final.

Other notable candidates include Houston’s Alperen Sengun and Chicago’s Coby White.

SIXTH MAN, COACH OF THE YEAR OFFER PLENTY TO DEBATE

Dallas’ Tim Hardaway Jr., Sacramento’s Malik Monk and Atlanta’s Bogdan Bogdanovic have been among the leading candidates for Sixth Man of the Year, but they are all chasing the Lakers’ Austin Reaves, who has thrived after struggling in a starting role early in the season.

For Coach of the Year, coaches of the teams with the best record are usually at the top of the list, so that gives Boston’s Joe Mazulla and Minnesota’s Chris Finch pretty good odds. Oklahoma City and Orlando have probably been the season’s biggest surprises team record-wise, so Mark Daigneault and Jamahl Mosley will get strong consideration, respectively, as well.