NBA Cup Finals preview: Thunder, Bucks look to fulfill championship promise

The NBA Cup Finals tells the tale of promise and of the dichotomy inherent in it. Of unfulfilled potential and the weight of expectation, of unbridled optimism and the burden of hope.

Maybe it's all a bit dramatic, but that's where we stand with the Milwaukee Bucks and the Oklahoma City Thunder — two teams on opposite ends of the journey bound by promise.

The Bucks, an older team buoyed by two superstars looking to cement the legacy of their ground-breaking partnership, one left with the bitter taste of disappointment after falling short of their lofty expectations. Only weeks ago, most would look at them and say their time has passed.

The Thunder, the youngest team in the league set to enter its contention window with clear eyes, full hearts and a shadow of dynastic proportions carrying the weight of their name, hoping to place a first trophy on their mantle. It's apparent their time has come.

Both teams, to some measure, were supposed to be here. Milwaukee's acquisition of Damian Lillard turned the hourglass, putting the team on a time limit but one that seemed destined to bear fruit. On the other hand, Oklahoma City have trudged around in the mud for years to turn a perennial lottery team into a powerhouse. Through savvy negotiation, drafting and development of young talent, their flower has only begun to bloom.

The promise of the two teams is set to come a head on Tuesday, as they square off under the bright lights and raucous atmosphere of Sin City, with the squeak of sneakers resonating off the colourful hardwood of the NBA Cup floor and the smell of money emanating from the nearby Las Vegas Strip. One team's promise will be fulfilled, while another succumbs to the enormous weight of hope.

Here's everything you need to know ahead of the NBA Cup Finals.

Series overview

Oklahoma City Thunder (20-5) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (14-11) — 8:30 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. PT

Road to Vegas:

Thunder: 3-1 in group stage, beat Mavericks in quarterfinal, beat Rockets in semifinal
Bucks: 4-0 in group stage, beat Magic in quarterfinal, beat Hawks in semifinal

Bucks' key question: Can Giannis Antetokounmpo build on his MVP resume?

It's about time Giannis Antetomounmpo hears his name back in MVP conversations after years of playing second-fiddle to the much-deserving Nikola Jokic. But with the Nuggets struggling in the crowded West and the Bucks pulling themselves out of the hole dug in the early part of the season, the two-time MVP has at last found himself back in the mix.

Antetokounmpo is in the midst of an absurd season, leading the league with 32.7 points a night on 61.4 per cent from the field (fifth) while tagging on 11.5 rebounds (fifth), 6.1 assists (second among frontcourt players) and 2.2 stocks a game. He's also second in PER (31.9), fourth in win shares (4.2), third in box plus/minus (9.1), third in value over replacement player (2.3) while coming third in usage percentage (36.6).

The Greek Freak has been everything to Milwaukee's surge up the standings, helping the team to nine wins in their last 11 games with him on the court after they won only four of their first 13. He's taken it up a notch in the NBA Cup playoffs, scoring 37 against the Magic in the quarters and 32 against the Hawks in the semis, leading the way for his team in both contests.

Lillard's strong stretch has certainly helped, but the Bucks live and die by the play of Antetokounmpo.

Through the early part of the season, there had been growing instability in Wisconsin, with the superstar constantly hinting at his disillusionment with the direction of the team. But through his other-worldly play and sudden spurt of team-wide success, the chatter has quieted down, leading to the Bucks reasserting themselves as a top-class team in the shaky Eastern Conference.

If he's able to power through the Thunder's No. 1 defence in the league, further establishing his sheer unstoppability, the MVP race might just be a bit more up in the air, and two more trophies could end up on the superstar's ever-growing mantle.

Thunder's key question: How does their assortment of defenders hound Lillard?

While on the topic of the MVP race, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would like to have a word. Not only is the isolation mastermind looking at Damian Lillard's defence like he's barbecue chicken, but he'll also be a key piece to shutting down the Bucks' guard on the defensive end.

Stopping Antetokounmpo seems almost out of the question, but slowing him down will be key. One of the ways to do that is to eliminate the perimeter threats that space the floor for him and allow him to steamroll down an empty lane. That means shutting down Lillard.

No personnel in the NBA is better equipped to do so than the Thunder, as their assortment of point-of-attack defenders and pests have pressured ball-handlers all season long. The unrelenting stream of guys like Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Luguentz Dort, Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso has been a nightmare, overwhelming perimeter players like a Best Buy stampede on Black Friday — or for the nerds out there, like a Terran base getting Zerg Rushed to oblivion.

There is no more annoying team to play against the the Thunder. Their 12.2 steals per game are the third-most all-time while their 22.2 deflections lead the league, they recover 61.7 per cent of loose balls on defence, they hold opponents to a 42.2 effective field goal percentage in the clutch and allow the lowest field-goal percentage at the rim in the league at 57.4 per cent despite trotting out the six-foot-six Jalen Williams at the five for a good chunk of the year. That all comes back to their pressure on the perimeter and their ability to muck up possessions before they even start.

Lillard will draw the short straw in this matchup, with the Thunder hoping to prevent Milwaukee's sets from getting going by taking on the sharpshooting guard before he even crosses the timeline and making rotations quick enough to jump passing lanes before Antetokounmpo can get the ball in an open lane.

How much the Thunder can stick to their identity — disrupting Lillard's silky play from the lead-guard spot and forcing it into the hands of more unreliable players like A.J. Green or Andre Jackson Jr. — will be key to their NBA Cup victory.

X-Factors

Bucks: Khris Middleton

Middleton hasn't been back for long, suiting up for only four games so far this season after undergoing off-season ankle surgery. In that time, he has yet to make a huge impact scoring the basketball for the Bucks, averaging a paltry 7.0 points a game on 25.9 per cent from the field. But where he has excelled is in his playmaking, functioning as another stabilizing force in half-court sets for the Bucks and dishing out 5.8 assists per game. With the Thunder's ability to pester perimeter players and disrupt actions, having another reliable connective passer like Middleton will be key to stabilizing the Bucks' sets. If he can also start to find his scoring touch, his size and skill on the wing should add another layer of spacing to give more room for Antetokounmpo's rim runs. Another deciding factor could be if he even suits up for the final, as the wing has been dealing with an illness in recent days and was unable to practice Monday. If he's unable to take the court, the Bucks may simply not have the cohesion or firepower to contend with the high-flying Thunder.

Thunder: Isaiah Hartenstein

After struggling with rebounding last season, the Thunder sought to reverse their fortunes in the off-season, singing Hartenstein to man the middle for the undersized squad. He's done an incredible job in his 10 games in OKC, averaging 12.5 points and 12.3 rebounds per game. His biggest impact has been on defence, as the big man has held opposing centres to a 41.2 field goal percentage over 209.7 partial possessions this season, functioning as the last brushstroke in the Thunder's great defensive masterpiece. He'll be tasked with being the final line of defence against Antetokounmpo, protecting the paint against his devastating drives. It's not about stopping the Greek Freak, it's about slowing him down so that Hartenstein can have a word.