Heading into the NBA playoffs, many fans were hoping to see a step in the direction of parity. Yet here we are, for the third time in four seasons, with the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics stepping up to the plate once again to reign over the Eastern Conference.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
The East was supposed to run through Boston. They were supposed to be here defending their title atop the East. Such is the expectation of a team only two wins away from the championship.
They’ve looked dominant for stretches this season behind the efforts of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. This year’s team is better than last season's, and the championship aspirations were apparent from the starting gun. Can anyone stop them?
Miami, on the other hand, though they sat atop the East in the regular season last year, came into this season as little more than a blip on the radar. The Heat finished seventh in the Eastern Conference with a middling 44-38 record, but the team culture prevailed.
Their upset over Milwaukee once again confirmed that the playoffs are an entirely different brand of basketball. Then, in the second round, they dismantled the New York Knicks, showing an uncanny ability to completely break down their opposition, sending teams spiralling into the offseason with more questions than answers.
With each team having taken a series off the other, the Heat in 2020 and the Celtics last season, could this be the last part of a trilogy set to define the early 2020s of the NBA? To get you ready for this winner-take-all third set, here’s one burning question for each squad and an X-Factor that could swing the series.
Regular season series: Tied 2-2
Odds to win series: Celtics -625 | Heat +350 (via Sports Interaction)
Series Schedule:
Game 1: Wednesday, May 17 @ Boston, 8:30 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. PT
Game 2: Friday, May 19 @ Boston, 8:30 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. PT
Game 3: Sunday, May 21 @ Miami, 8:30 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. PT
Game 4: Tuesday, May 23 @ Miami, 8:30 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. PT
Game 5: Thursday, May 25 @ Boston, TBD
Game 6: Saturday, May 27 @ Miami, TBD
Game 7: Monday, May 29 @ Boston, TBD
Prediction: Celtics over Heat in six games
The last five quarters of basketball for Jayson Tatum might be the best stretch of his career. In that span, he has pulled the Celtics from the brink of elimination with a dazzling 16-point quarter in Game 6, then followed it with a complete and utter demolition of the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 7 en route to a record-setting 51 points.
However, in the three quarters preceding his outburst, he scored three points on 1-for-13 from the field. And despite his 36 points in Game 5, he was 11-for-27 from the field and finished with a game-low minus-26.
Recency bias will tell you that Tatum has completely flipped a switch and that he is absolutely built for this. But his stats against the 76ers before Game 7 aren’t exactly world-beating.
He averaged 25.3 points on inefficient .417/.319/.860 shooting splits. He did lead the team in rebounding, with 10.8 a night, and was second in assists, with 5.0, but there were moments when he virtually shot his team out of games.
Up until his 16-point quarter in Game 6, with the fate of the Celtics’ season on the line, he looked to be doing that again. Every shot he took felt like the wrong decision and the question of whether or not rookie coach Joe Mazzulla should pull his superstar seemed level-headed. Then Tatum remembered how talented he is.
“Humbly, I’m one of the best basketball players in the world,” Tatum told reporters after scoring more points (16) than the Sixers as a team did in the fourth quarter (13). And how could you tell him he was wrong after what he did to Philadelphia?
His 51 in Game 7 broke the record for points in the rubber match set two weeks prior by Stephen Curry. More impressively, he did it while absolutely dissecting the 76ers, daring them to send anything his way, he would find a way to beat it. He hunted Joel Embiid, beat double-teams, drop defence, blitzes, you name it. His bag, as Tom Wambsgans from HBO’s Succession would put it, was ludicrously capacious.
Which one will the Celtics get in the Eastern Conference Finals? The one who can single-handedly crush the spirit of an opposing team and whittle down their MVP until the conversation of who deserved the award is nothing more than meaningless? Or will they get the one whose place on the Celtics and as a top player in the league came into question, with the cognoscenti wondering whether or not the lights blinded him?
Since 2010, Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra has made seven conference finals appearances, the most by any head coach in that span.
Later on in this preview, we touch on the X-factor for this series. That usually belongs to the player on either team who could turn the tide of the series. However, in this case, that title might really belong to Spoelstra. If the Heat win with an undeniably inferior team, it will be because of the mind of maybe the best coach in the association.
On the bench opposite him is Joe Mazzulla, a rookie head coach who has looked every bit the part at times in the playoffs. The Celtics’ series against the Hawks probably shouldn’t have gone to six games, and the efforts against the 76ers rest more on the laurels of Tatum than the adjustments made by Mazzulla.
Spoelstra has been in this spot before and that goes a long way when it comes to playoff basketball. Every adjustment he makes comes with years of experience and understanding of just how long a series can be.
In the first-round series against Milwaukee, Giannis Antetokounmpo had his worst playoff series since his first-ever showing in the big dance against the Chicago Bulls, in 2015. Then, against the Knicks, Julius Randle and RJ Barrett disappeared in Game 6, shooting a combined 4-for-24 from the field.
Spoelstra consistently found ways to shut down opposing stars, taking away their favoured looks despite a Miami Heat team that, on paper, is significantly less talented.
Moreover, he has proven that anyone on his roster can have a great night, with his ability to extract every last bit of talent from Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin or Kevin Love. He’s been able to expand his rotation, relying on guys further down his depth chart in the absence of Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo.
Mazzulla, on the other hand, has had to drastically shorten his bench, choosing to use seven guys more often than not. Guys such as Derrick White, who at points in the year seemed like the third-best option on the Celtics, were phased out of the rotation by the end of the 76ers series.
On one side, you’ve got maybe the best coach in the league turning players into exactly what he needs them to be for the win. The coach with the most experience in deep playoff runs. On the other side, you’ve got a rookie head coach who sat behind the bench last season, the fallback to a fallback who might still be learning on the job. Could this disparity be what swings it for the Heat?
Series X-Factor: Kyle Lowry, Miami Heat
When asked about what sets the Miami Heat apart from the typical eight-seed after their Game 6 win over the Knicks in Round 2, Jimmy Butler said what every Toronto Raptors fan knew: “We got Kyle Lowry.”
Doubters beware, though he’s coming off the bench, these playoffs have been littered with some throwback Lowry performances, making it clear as to why Miami was so hard-pressed to secure his services.
As was highlighted earlier, the Heat have consistently found ways to extract every last bit of effort and ability from each of the guys on the roster. You can pick any number of players on this team to be the X-Factor in this series. They showed during their six-game set against the Knicks that on any given night, any of their guys can decide that this game is theirs.
But the player who stood out the most was North Philly’s finest in Kyle Lowry. In their four wins, he averaged 14.5 points on .515/.500/.866 shooting splits while dishing out 5.8 assists, 4.3 rebounds and 2.75 steals+blocks per game.
He also led all players in bench points during the series while finishing second on the Heat in assists despite playing only 29 minutes a night. He's been key as a lead ball-handler when on the floor, opening up the pick-and-roll for bigs Cody Zeller and Bam Adebayo.
One point of contention might be Lowry’s stats in last year’s series against Boston, when the guard shrunk to the tune of 9.4 points a game on .286/.267/.786 shooting splits. However, his career numbers against the Celtics show a willingness to go after his former Atlantic Division rivals, averaging 16.6 points over his career against Boston, second to only his games against the 76ers, with 16.7.
He might not be the player he once was while with Toronto, but over the course of this playoff run, he’s shown that when the Heat win, he’s right there in the middle of the pack, fighting like he always has.
If Miami wants to take down the superior roster that the Celtics possess, they’ll need vintage performances from Lowry, taking charges, blocking shots and getting into the faces of tough defensive guards Marcus Smart and Derrick White.
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