NBA Eastern Conference Round 2 preview: Celtics vs. 76ers

109 playoff basketball games, more than any two other teams have faced each other in the tournament. Countless names, legends, icons and rivalries. Chamberlain-Russell, Bird-Erving, Iverson-Pierce, each pairing has given fans iconic series fit for the NBA Playoffs. 

Once again, both teams find themselves with championship aspirations and some of the best talent in the league to boot. Though it’s not nearly as heated as the above rivalries were, Embiid-Tatum, a matchup between arguably two top-five NBA players, is one that belongs beside the names of the past. 

It’s been one-sided since both those stars took over on their respective teams, culminating in two series losses for the 76ers. The 2018 Eastern Conference Semifinals saw Boston win in a gentleman’s sweep, and their matchup in 2020 was little more than a footnote as the Celtics swept the 76ers in the NBA bubble. 

As they hope to reverse their fortunes, the 76ers have revamped their roster, slotting former MVP James Harden in place of Ben Simmons.

However, they haven’t found much more success, as they’ve been unable to advance past the second round during Embiid’s tenure. Will they be able to overcome their demons against an all-too-familiar opponent? 

The Celtics meanwhile have enjoyed deeper runs in the postseason. Since 2018, the duo of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum have advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals three times and made the NBA Finals for the first time last season. 

Philly hasn’t beaten Boston in the playoffs since 1982. For 41 years they’ve been stifled, but if they get past their long-time rivals, with Milwaukee out of the way, a path to their first NBA Finals since 2001 seems more clear than ever. 

Can they pull it off or does the East still go through New England? Here’s one burning question for each team and the X-factor that could swing the series.

Regular season series: Celtics won season series 3-1

Odds to win series: Celtics -455 | 76ers +301 (via Sports Interaction)

Series Schedule:

Game 1: Monday, May 1 @ Boston 7:30 p.m. ET
Game 2: Wednesday, May 3 @ Boston 8:00 p.m. ET
Game 3: Friday, May 5 @ Philadelphia 7:30 p.m. ET
Game 4: Sunday, May 7 @ Philadelphia 3:30 p.m. ET
Game 5: Tuesday, May 9 @ Boston TBD
Game 6: Thursday, May 11 @ Philadelphia TBD
Game 7: Sunday, May 14 @ Boston TBD

Series Prediction: 76ers over Celtics in seven games

Joe Mazzulla wasn’t supposed to be here.

Ime Udoka’s suspension from the Celtics came out of nowhere only a few weeks before the NBA pre-season began. The now Houston Rockets' head coach was suspended by the Celtics for the entirety of the 2022-2023 season after news broke about an alleged affair involving him and a member of the team's staff. 

Mazzulla, a 34-year-old assistant whose only head coaching job was with the NCAA Division II Fairmont State Fighting Falcons, was thrust into the lead role of a team that made the NBA Finals the year prior. He ended up finishing third in Coach of the Year voting. 

However, a question was asked about Milwaukee Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer following their loss to the Miami Heat in the first round. Did the Bucks succeed in spite of Budenholzer? 

Could the same be asked for Mazzulla, as the roster he’s working with is clearly one built for success, perhaps regardless of who the guy leading the bench is?

In their first-round series, it took Boston six games to defeat the Atlanta Hawks as Trae Young rediscovered his love for playoff basketball, scoring nearly 30 points a game while exposing last year’s Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart. 

His adjustments late in games left much to be desired, choosing to let Young isolate on Smart frequently in the fourth quarter. The Hawks scored on 46 per cent of their isolation looks, netting 1.05 points per possession, both better than their regular season numbers.

Choosing to go with Marcus Smart as part of the closing lineup isn’t necessarily the wrong choice. In the series against the Hawks, the lineup of Smart, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Al Horford finished with a +11.6 differential. 

However, the most effective lineup in the regular season was when they went big, rolling with White, Brown, Tatum, Horford and Robert Williams, who finished in the 99th percentile with a +45.1 differential. Against a team that plays through big man Embiid, this might be the best five the Celtics can field.

Choosing to value present production over past success might be the best choice for Mazzulla despite his unwillingness in the past to sit the longest-tenured Celtics player in Smart.

A full season of James Harden, Tyrese Maxey becoming a 20 point-per-game scorer, Tobias Harris shooting 57 per cent from deep in the first round. Are the Philadelphia 76ers becoming a dependable team after sweeping the Brooklyn Nets? 

Unfortunately, the more things change, the more things stay the same. Though the team is drastically different than the one that took the court last time they faced the Celtics in the playoffs, Embiid is still nursing the same concerns surrounding his injury history. 

In Game 3 against the Brooklyn Nets, Embiid suffered a sprained LCL which forced the big man to sit out Game 4. Though it didn’t seem to be too bad an injury at first, The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported that it was more serious than originally believed and that he's now doubtful to play in Game 1.

Game 4 against the Nets, despite the win, was an ugly outing for the Sixers, as Harden and Maxey combined to shoot 10-of-38 from the field. Harris led the way with 25 points in one of his best playoff games as a Sixer, but they’ll need their two guards to excel if they want to keep their head above water against Boston. 

Harden’s playoff struggles are well-documented, and since joining the Sixers it’s only gotten worse. He’s currently averaging 18.3 points (.387/.385/.884 shooting splits), 8.6 assists and 4.0 turnovers in his 16 playoff games in Philadelphia — his worst averages since coming off the bench with the Thunder in 2012. 

The 76ers are 12-5 without Embiid this season. Of those 17 games, Harden played in seven, averaging 20.6 points (.409/.354/.841) with 9.4 assists and 6.7 rebounds. They were a solid 5-2 in those games, however, only one of those games came against a playoff team in the Miami Heat. 

It was a good thing that the 76ers swept the Nets, and it was even better for them that Atlanta managed to take two games from the Celtics. It gave Embiid two extra days to recover in hopes that he comes back sooner rather than later. 

Without Embiid, the Sixers likely don’t make it past this Celtics team, so the severity of his injury will likely decide the outcome of this series. How many games can the big man miss without the team being in a deep enough hole to come out from, and can the rest of the team supplement the production they’ll miss without him? 

With Embiid out and Harden struggling in big spots, the onus of the 76ers success might have to fall on the shoulders of third-year guard Tyrese Maxey. 

The speedster has done well in these sorts of games before. Last season in Round 2 against Miami, he led the team in scoring with 20.2 points a night including a 34-point performance in Game 2 without Embiid.

In Round 1 last season, Maxey burned through the Raptors with his blistering pace and averaged 21.3 points a game on .511/.405/.950 shooting splits during the six-game series. 

He’s been a key contributor for the 76ers this year and has found comfort in either a starting role alongside Harden or as a supplementary scorer coming off the bench. His +15 points-per-possession numbers in the opening series against the Nets place him in the 95th percentile according to Cleaning the Glass.

On the other hand, the team that has done the best job of slowing the quick combo guard down has been the Boston Celtics. His 8.2 points per game in 10 contests against the Celtics are the lowest mark of any team he’s gone up against. 

If they’re able to make Maxey invisible as they’ve done in the past, the series can be chalked up. However, if he’s able to break through Boston’s aggressive switching defence, his scoring prowess could keep them alive long enough for Embiid to show why he could be the MVP this year.