The Golden State Warriors already find themselves in a must-win situation one game into the NBA Finals.
They’ve lost home court advantage. They lost a game they led by 12 going into the fourth quarter and they simply looked lost down the stretch.
Game 1 was strange. Al Horford’s renaissance kicked into sixth gear, with the big man posting 26 points on 75/75/66 splits. Jayson Tatum’s shot wasn’t falling, but he made plays for his teammates, finishing with 13 assists. And Boston’s streaky backcourt of Marcus Smart and Derrick White combined to shoot 9-15 from deep.
Add to all that a Warriors team that won the offensive rebounding battle and didn’t turn the ball over too much, while taking a 12-point lead into the fourth quarter. On paper, even with Boston’s role players popping off, that’s a game the Warriors expect to win.
Despite the loss in a game that saw the Warriors played well for 40 minutes, a game they shouldn’t have lost, the spread grew for Game 2. I think it’s time we all admit to ourselves that Golden State is getting about a two-point bump, not from the books, but from the action.
They are the public team in this series, and as I predicted, that might skew some stuff a little more heavily toward the Warriors than it should.
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Overall record against the spread: 31-27-1
Boston Celtics (+4.5, +160) vs Golden State Warriors (-4.5, -180) – 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. on Sportsnet
It’s rare that you see a team lose a Game 1 they’re favoured to win, only to enter Game 2 favoured by more.
That’s the situation bettors find the Golden State Warriors in as we look at the lines for the second game of the NBA Finals.
Are Horford, Smart and White going to combine for 65 points on 65/65/85 shooting again in this series? Probably not. But that combined line is indicative of something that I think is replicable unless the Warriors adjust their defensive coverage.
A lot of those shots were wide open.
I’m thinking Golden State adjusts and treats Tatum like they treated Nikola Jokic. Stick to the shooters and force the star into a position where he has to score big for his team to win. The peripherals were all there for the Warriors. The rebounding, the relative lack of turnovers, the Steph Curry hot start.
They just got outplayed in the fourth. Hell, they even looked like they lost focus, something this team is regrettably very capable of.
I don’t think the adjustments they need to make in Game 2 are onerous, and I think they’ll make them.
I like Golden State (-4.5) to tie the series up.
Curry had five assists in Game 1 despite the Celtics going under on screens against him and almost asking him to shoot. That coverage changed over the course of the game, and if they spend four quarters top-locking and hedging, he should be forced into passing more.
I like Curry OVER 5.5 assists.
Before the series started, I told you to watch Andrew Wiggins’ rebounding prop and grab the over if it dips below six. So of course, I’m taking Wiggins OVER 5.5 rebounds.
And I loved the way Marcus Smart defended, particularly against Jordan Poole, so let’s hop back on my favourite prop of the playoffs: Smart OVER 1.5 steals and blocks.
Grant Williams hasn’t hit a three since Game 5 against Miami, but he has hit at least one in 13 of his 19 playoff games. Let’s take the "he’s due" flyer on Williams OVER 0.5 threes.
I’ll add in Draymond Green OVER 5.5 assists as well. Green is always better with his back against the wall.
And the Warriors need this one badly.
Tonight’s Sicko Same Game Parlay pays off at +1600
· Golden State Money Line
· Grant Williams OVER 0.5 threes made
· Stephen Curry OVER 5.5 assists
· Draymond Green OVER 5.5 assists
· Marcus Smart OVER 1.5 steals and blocks
As always, play safe and don’t chase.
