A confession to start: My plan was to wait and see where Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving landed before I started digging too deeply into NBA Futures. I figured the big dominoes would fall and then we’d see a flurry of free agent movement. The idea was to cover how the big moves affected betting lines, but there just haven’t been any big moves yet.
The confounding Brooklyn Nets duo remains …well, confounding. So, I’m just going to evaluate the betting markets as if Durant and Irving aren’t going anywhere, which increasingly seems like a possible outcome. The Nets don’t have to move either guy and the trade market has turned out to be lukewarm at best.
So, let’s get into some futures picks, new and old, with that possibility in mind.
2022-23 NBA Champions
I highlighted the Milwaukee Bucks (+750) a few weeks ago, a pick I still feel good about. That line hasn’t moved, despite Milwaukee adding depth in the frontcourt with the signing of Serge Ibaka. My value pick was the Dallas Mavericks (+1600), a line that’s moved slightly to +1700 now. I actually think the Mavs are better on paper now than they were when I made that pick, with Christian Wood giving Luka Doncic a legitimate screen-and-roll partner instead of whatever Maxi Kleber is.
At this very moment, my favourite value bet is the Brooklyn Nets (+2500). Angry KD is a sight to behold, and in adding Bubble GOAT T.J. Warren and Royce O’Neale this offseason, the Nets have added depth where they sorely needed some.
There’s some Last Dance potential with this Nets team if general manager Sean Marks opts to keep Kyrie and bank on a big contract year while also keeping KD and his “hoopers hoop” attitude.
2022-23 NBA MVP
Luka Doncic (+500) remains my pick to win this award, but I still like the value in Nikola Jokic (+900). Ja Morant (+1300 now) has dropped slightly in the odds — I think his cringey offseason online has a little to do with this — but I believe in Ja and his ability to make that leap.
2022-23 Rookie of the Year
This is where it starts to get wacky for me. The most likely outcome is one of the top three of Paolo Banchero (+350), Chet Holmgrem (+375) and Jabari Smith (+550) wins the award. They’re all immensely talented and on bad teams that will provide them ample time to put up numbers. But that’s boring.
I have two trains of thought here. Jaden Ivey (+650) is an electric player on a team in Detroit that could very well become a lot of people’s second favourite team next season. It’s possible that adding Ivey and Jalen Duren to Cade Cunningham and Saddiq Bey turns Detroit from a doormat to a middle-of-the-pack team. We’ve never truly seen Ivey hoop without the shackles of Purdue’s archaic system, and it could be beautiful.
My longshot pick is Canadian Shaedon Sharpe (+1800), the NBA’s resident mystery rookie. While Sharpe has a stellar pre-college pedigree, this is more of a trend analysis pick than anything. Sharpe is on a Portland team that I think is going to be pretty good. They added Jerami Grant and Gary Payton II to the roster after bringing in Josh Hart last year, and they’re getting their heart and soul back in Damian Lillard.
It’s easy to forget how much a game-breaker Dame is given how off he looked last season in battling a core injury so bad that it required surgery. And we’ve seen a trend lately in which the prevailing thinking on the league MVP debate — that winning matters — has permeated the rest of the awards. I think that played a role in Scottie Barnes and Evan Mobley being the only two rookies in the discussion last season, and if Sharpe is contributing to a playoff team in Portland (or even a play-in team), it could be enough to carry him.
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2022-23 Sixth Man of the Year
Only one player on this list caught my eye and now has my money behind him: Anfernee Simons (+1400). My real fear here is that he’ll somehow earn a starting role with the Trail Blazers and disqualify himself. But on paper, Simons is the perfect 6MOY candidate. He can put up 18+ points per game off the bench, and I think his team is going to be good.
That’s it, that’s the analysis. He’s got the Jamal Crawford / Jordan Clarkson role going into next season. And he might be better than those dudes.
2022-23 Most Improved Player
MIP is a tough award to project, and a nebulous one to define. But what I like to do is look at a third- or fourth-year player I expect to take a serious leap. It worked out if you bet on Ja Morant last year, or Brandon Ingram in 2020, or Pascal Siakam the year before that, or Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2017. You get the idea. Going back to Jimmy Butler’s win in 2014-15, the MIP has gone to a third- or fourth-year guy six of eight times.
And it just so happens that my favourite third-year player, a guy who seems very poised to make the same leap Morant made last season, has some pretty tasty odds. Anthony Edwards (+1100) looked about a year away from true stardom during Minnesota’s brief playoff run. His ceiling is non-existent, and I could see him one day being the face of the league. But if he plays at the level he showed in flashes during Minnesota’s first-round loss to Memphis for an entire season, it should be enough to take home MIP.
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