NBA Futures: Will Luka Doncic finally win MVP?

Another NBA season is nearly upon us, and with it, another flight of futures to pick. In a league that hasn’t seen a repeat champion since the Golden State Warriors dynasty of the late 2010s, can the Boston Celtics reach the promised land again? Can Nikola Jokic join the pantheon of all-time greats who have won four MVPs, or will fellow Balkan Boy Luka Doncic finally take home the league’s top honour? Can the Toronto Raptors find their way back to the playoffs, or are they playing Capture the (Cooper) Flagg?

If I had the answers, this wouldn’t be called gambling, it would be called investing. But I’ve got some ideas.

Let’s start with the title odds, via BetMGM.

NBA Finals Winner

It’s not sexy, but I think the Boston Celtics (+325) are going to repeat. They were so good last season that a step back would mean they’re still the best team in the league, just with a slightly slimmer margin. At those odds, however, it’s not much fun. I have a hard time seeing anyone else winning the East, so I’m looking to the West for my upset picks here.

The Dallas Mavericks (+1200) were in the finals last season and improved their roster in adding future Hall of Famer Klay Thompson. The Minnesota Timberwolves (+1200) were a game away from being the West’s top seed, and the Denver Nuggets (+1100) finished tied for the best record in the conference. Given the relative youth of the Oklahoma City Thunder roster, I think they’re probably still a year or two away. So the Mavs, Wolves, or Nuggets feel like the teams most likely to represent the West in the Finals. And once you get there, you’re only a few good breaks away from winning it all. Of those three, give me Dallas (+1200), because I believe in Luka Doncic. More on that in the MVP section.

Atlantic Division

This is the easiest pick I’ll make in this column: Boston (-150) should win this one with relative ease. This is the kind of division where we have to dig into some of the weirder futures BetMGM has available. You can get a little more juice by taking their Exact Outcome bet on Boston in first and the New York Knicks in second, which is at +160. That feels nearly as likely as a simple Boston win, but with positive odds.

Central Division

Here’s a fun fact: The Milwaukee Bucks (+110) have won this division six years in a row. They’re my pick to continue a streak that started seemingly the instant Lebron James left Cleveland for Los Angeles. At essentially even odds, I’m also eyeing the 1st Bucks/2nd Cavaliers (+150) Exact Outcome bet just for fun. That’s been the finish atop the Central

Division two seasons in a row, and despite Indiana’s surprise run last season, I think it will be the case again.

Southeast Division

The Orlando Magic (-140) were good earlier than anyone expected, and they capitalized on a down year in what is already the NBA’s weakest division, finishing a game ahead of Miami. The Heat (+150) seem recommitted to regular season basketball, and Bam Adebayo’s added outside shot looked legitimate when he took it for a test drive at the Summer Olympics.

Miami is my pick to win here, but the Atlanta Hawks (+1000) are tantalizing. The trade that sent Dejounte Murray to New Orleans brought back some real defensive talent in Larry Nance Jr. and Dyson Daniels. With how potent any Trae Young-lead offence is, if they can achieve even an average defence (a possibility if Jalen Johnson and Deandre Hunter can stay on the floor) the Hawks could be better than the oddsmakers think.

Pacific Division

Of all the teams in the Pacific, only the Clippers winning would be a true surprise. My pick here is the Phoenix Suns (+180), as giving Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal a real point guard and a serious offensive coach (Tyus Jones and Mike Budenholzer, respectively) should make a positive difference for a team that somehow struggled to score late in games.

But it’s hard to ignore the Golden State Warriors (+375) and the LA Lakers (+400) after watching Lebron James, Steph Curry, and Anthony Davis be the three most important players on the US Olympic Basketball team. Phoenix is the pick, but I’ll probably have a little action on the Dubs and Lakers.

Southwest Division

If San Antonio and Houston continue to improve on the trajectories they were on at the end of last season, this division could be a bloodbath. The Memphis Grizzlies (+250) have been a regular season buzzsaw in the Ja Morant era, but they’ve already been bitten by the injury bug. If you squint, the New Orleans Pelicans (+375) appear to have improved by adding Murray, but if you don’t squint…well they don’t have a centre.

One thing I’m fairly certain of is that the Dallas Mavericks (+135) are going to be very hard to keep under 120 points with Klay Thompson spotting up around whatever wizardry Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving can put together in the pick and roll with Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively. If they can put together an average defence, Dallas could be a 60-win team. They’re the pick.

Northwest Division The Oklahoma City Thunder (-130) are perfectly designed to crush it during the regular season in the way that Memphis did a few years ago. They’re young, they play crazy defence, and they have a transcendent isolation scorer at point guard. They will likely win this division, but as this heavy of a favourite, I’ll probably take a flier on the Denver Nuggets (+325). Sure, they got worse over the offseason, and Canadian guard Jamal Murray hasn’t looked like himself in nearly 18 months, but they still have the best player in the league.

It’s time for Luka Doncic (+350) to finally win his MVP. He’s already had arguably the best 6-year start to a career since Lebron James, winning Rookie of the Year and following that up with five straight All-NBA First Teams. For a long odds dark horse, I think Kevin Durant (+8000) is worth a flier. If Devin Booker misses significant time, I think the Suns can still be very good, and that will be because of KD. Devin Booker (+12500) is another longshot option for the inverse of that reasoning.

If Dalton Knecht (+1200) can ingratiate himself to Lebron James, he could put up the scoring numbers that you can win you a Rookie of the Year award. The kid can flat out shoot, and Lebron loves a reliable outside shooter and he knows how to set them up. Canadian Zack Edey (+300) is favoured here, but I think he’ll struggle to 10 points a game, leaving the door open for a player like Knecht or Houston’s Reed Sheppard (+750) to swoop in and win Rookie of the Year.

I have often found great success bundling a handful of obvious division winners in a parlay. This year, Milwaukee-Boston-OKC-Dallas will pay out around +1350. A Luka Doncic parlay (Luka to win MVP, Mavericks to win over 49.5 games, win their division and win the Western Conference) would pay out an even more lucrative +11500. These are sicko bets, but that’s why we play.

As always, play safe and don’t chase.