NBA Northwest Division Preview: Are Nuggets contenders with Murray-Jokic reunited?

The Northwest Division is a mixed bag.

You've got the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves, two teams with title aspirations (as lofty as those may be).

On the other end of the spectrum, there's the Utah Jazz and Oklahoma City Thunder — bound for shameless "tankathon's" in pursuit of projected top picks Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson.

And floating somewhere in the middle — the worst place to be in the NBA — the Portland Trail Blazers.

How will the division shake out? What are the best and worst possible outcomes for each team? We break it down below.

Last season’s results: 49-33 record, first in Northwest Division, fifth in Western Conference, lost in first round.

2022-23 season betting odds: Over/under 26.5 total wins this season and +32200 to win it all, according to Sports Interaction.

Projected starting five: Mike Conley, Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen, Jarred Vanderbilt, Kelly Olynyk

Noteworthy arrivals: Lauri Markkanen, Kelly Olynyk, Collin Sexton, Jarred Vanderbilt, Walker Kessler, Malik Beasley, Talen Horton-Tucker, Stanley Johnson, Ochai Agbaji, Simone Fontecchio, Leandro Bolmaro

Noteworthy departures: Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic, Royce O'Neale, Hassan Whiteside, Juancho Hernangomez, Danuel House, Trent Forrest, Eric Paschall

Team outlook: Those last season results we just listed? Yeah, don’t expect to see something similar this year. The Jazz would be lucky to even limit themselves to 49 losses, let alone reach 49 wins again.

It’s a new era in Utah: Rudy Gobert is gone, Donovan Mitchell is gone, so is long-time head coach Quin Snyder. The Jazz tried to win with that core but couldn’t get past the second-round plateau, so they decided it was time to blow it up.

Now the Jazz, with executive Danny Ainge at the wheel, are in full-on rebuild mode, armed with a bottomless list of draft picks (most importantly, their own) thanks to blockbuster trades and rooting for losses after making the playoffs the last six seasons.

Good luck with new head coach Will Hardy, though at least the pressure and expectations could hardly be lower.

Best-case scenario: Collin Sexton, acquired in the Mitchell trade and instantly signed to a four-year, $80-million contract, returns to 24-point-per-game form after missing much of last season due to injury. Lauri Markkanen proves why he was a high lottery pick years ago and 2022 first-rounders Ochai Agbaji and Walker Kessler show promise.

But the team’s championship is really at the draft lottery, because likely No. 1 overall pick Wembanyama has a chance to be a generational talent. You’ve heard of unicorns in the NBA, LeBron James calls this seven-foot-three Frenchman “an alien.”

Win the lottery, and all those losses are worth it – projected No. 2 overall pick Henderson isn’t half bad either.

Worst-case scenario: Utah wins just a bit too much. If the Jazz hit the over on their 26.5 win total and finish above fellow expected bottom dwellers San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Orlando and Indiana, then get leapfrogged in the lottery to finish with a pick well outside the top 5, that’s a major disappointment.

Last season’s results: 48-34 record, second in Northwest Division, sixth in Western Conference, lost in first round.

2022-23 season betting odds: Over/under 50.5 total wins this season and +1197 to win it all, according to Sports Interaction.

Projected starting five: Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic

Noteworthy arrivals: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bruce Brown, Ish Smith, DeAndre Jordan

Noteworthy departures: Will Barton, Monte Morris, Austin Rivers, JaMychal Green, Bryn Forbes, Markus Howard, Facundo Campazzo, DeMarcus Cousins

Team outlook: For the last two seasons, Nikola Jokic has played basketball at an all-time level. For the last two seasons, he hasn’t had the help to go deep in the playoffs.

Denver enters this season with high expectations. Jamal Murray is back for the first time since April 2021, and Michael Porter Jr. is also healthy. It’s finally time for the Nuggets to carry their momentum from the 2020 bubble playoffs when both Murray and Jokic went scorched earth in consecutive 3-1 comebacks against the Jazz and LA Clippers.

On top of finally getting healthy (though both Murray and Jokic have slight knocks to start the year) the Nuggets made a couple of smart moves to bolster their depth, moving Will Barton and Monte Morris to acquire a quality 3-and-D threat in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and signing do-it-all forward Bruce Brown to a cost-effective two-year contract.

Their starting five is among the best in the league, their bench is solid and they have the back-to-back MVP. Time is nigh in Denver.

Best-case scenario: Health. The Nuggets need both Murray and Porter healthy to go far. Without them, Denver doesn’t have any true offensive creators beyond Jokic, and that’s caught up with him in the past two post-seasons.

The next step in the best-case scenario is that both players return to their peak levels. As a 22-year-old in 2020-21, Porter was scoring 19 points per game on 54 per cent from the field and 45 per cent from three, and we all saw what Murray did in the bubble.

If those things come together alongside prime Jokic, Denver’s looking at a high seed and a deep run.

Worst-case scenario: The opposite, really. The Nuggets don’t stay healthy, or even if they do, Murray and Porter spend most of the season working their way back to form and the team doesn’t quite reach a high enough level to contend. As long as Jokic is around the Nuggets will be good and make the playoffs, but without help another year of his prime goes by.

Last season’s results: 46-36 record, third in Northwest Division, seventh in Western Conference, lost in first round.

2022-23 season betting odds: Over/under 48.5 total wins this season and +2254 to win it all, according to Sports Interaction.

Projected starting five: D'Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert

Noteworthy arrivals: Rudy Gobert, Kyle Anderson, Bryn Forbes, Austin Rivers, Eric Paschall, CJ Elleby, AJ Lawson

Noteworthy departures: Patrick Beverley, Walker Kessler, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Leandro Bolmaro

Team outlook: Suddenly, it’s time to win now?

The Timberwolves had their second taste of the playoffs in 18 years of mostly mediocrity last season, and celebrated their play-in victory like they’d won a championship – now they’re making moves like they want to win the real thing.

Trading a billion picks for Rudy Gobert signals management believes this core can have title aspirations – with Anthony Edwards as a frontman and Karl-Anthony Towns flourishing alongside Rudy Gobert handling the defensive big-man burden.

Gobert is 30 and signed through 2025-26, so it’s by no means a make-or-break season in Minnesota, but making that type of move seriously increases winning expectations for a team previously thought of as a fun up-and-comer.

Can they live up to it? It won’t be easy in that Western Conference.

Best-case scenario: Edwards, who’s incredibly still just 21, takes another massive step. The throwback big-man duo of Gobert and Towns clicks and serves as a nightmare matchup for opposing teams. D’Angelo Russell returns to the player who had so much success with the Brooklyn Nets instead of being the guy who was more than shaky at times during last season’s playoffs.

In that case, you’re looking at a top 6 seed and maybe a series win, which would be a definite step in the right direction.

Worst-case scenario: The double-big-man experiment doesn’t work. Towns and Gobert turn out to be unplayable together. Gobert continues to get exploited by defences come playoff time despite theories that happened in Utah because he had a lack of wing-defence support.

Now you’ve traded five players, four first-round draft picks and a pick swap for a flawed player who doesn’t bring you near contention, let alone take you over the top.

Last season’s results: 27-55 record, fourth in Northwest Division, 13th in Western Conference, missed playoffs.

2022-23 season betting odds: Over/under 39.5 total wins this season and +7090 to win it all, according to Sports Interaction.

Projected starting five: Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons, Josh Hart, Jerami Grant, Jusuf Nurkic

Noteworthy arrivals: Jerami Grant, Gary Payton II, Shaedon Sharpe

Noteworthy departures: Didi Louzada, Ben McLemore, CJ Elleby

Team outlook: There’s a slight re-tooling on the fly happening in Portland. The Blazers used a Damian Lillard injury-riddled season to hit the reset button, move on from his long-time co-star CJ McCollum and give the keys of the offence to Anfernee Simons – who really took off after years of being mostly just a Summer League star.

Now they’ve brought in two pieces the Blazers have always been missing: a 3-and-D wing in Jerami Grant and Gary Payton II, a defensive wing/guard to take pressure off Lillard. Also, Lillard is back healthy – though at 32 and coming off an abdominal injury some will wonder if his best years are behind him.

And the question is, are the Blazers any better for their changes? Despite adding some pieces, Portland looks like a play-in team at best and it’s unclear if Lillard can help them overachieve like he’s done perennially in recent years.

If this season flames out early like the last, there could be some more wholesale changes because there isn’t much of a roadmap for Portland to improve its personnel without blowing it up and starting from scratch.

Best-case scenario: Lillard comes back like his Dame Time self, Nurkic stays healthy, Simons becomes a 20-point-per-game player, No. 7 overall pick and London Ont. native Shaedon Sharpe shows promise and the team, for once, has a quality defence. Then you might be looking at home-court advantage in a play-in game.

The other scenario is the team decides to blow it up and tank for Wembanyama.

Worst-case scenario: They live in mediocrity all year, not getting too high or too low, and finish with a pick late in the lottery or get knocked out in the play-in. It’s a worst-case scenario and it also feels like the most likely outcome.

Last season’s results: 24-58 record, fifth in Northwest Division, 14th in Western Conference, miss playoffs.

2022-23 season betting odds: Over/under 22.5 total wins this season and +40200 to win it all, according to Sports Interaction.

Projected starting five: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lugentz Dort, Josh Giddy, Kenrich Williams, Mike Muscala

Noteworthy arrivals: David Nwaba, Chet Holmgren

Noteworthy departures: Vit Krejčí, Isaiah Roby, Derrick Favors, Ty Jerome, Theo Maledon

Team outlook: The Thunder have been in an epic tank/rebuild phase, where anyone who’s a plus player seems to get shut down for the season down the stretch.

Heading into this year, it felt like things might be a little different, that the team might take a step forward. But as we get closer to the season, it’s starting to feel like Oklahoma City has the same fate as previous seasons.

No. 2 overall pick in 2022 Chet Holmgren is out for the entire campaign with a Lisfranc injury. And beyond Hamilton, Ont.’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Montreal’s Lugentz Dort and Australian Josh Giddey, the Thunder are barely lined with NBA players.

Besides, it makes sense to tank this year with Wembanyama and Henderson as the lottery prizes. One just wonders how a player like Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s playing at an elite level and entering his prime, might feel about a third consecutive meaningless season.

Best-case scenario: These next two steps are going to sound like Utah. Oklahoma’s championship is also at the draft lottery.

Add Henderson or Wembanyama to this group of young players, plus all the other first-round picks still remaining, and the Thunder’s Process 2.0 is on an excellent trajectory.

Worst-case scenario: Once again, it’s winning a little too much and finishing above the rest of the league’s bottom-dwellers. If Oklahoma City goes through another season filled with losing, testing franchise star Gilgeous-Alexander’s patience, and doesn’t get a quality reward in the lottery – that’s bad news.