The Toronto Raptors open their season Wednesday at Scotiabank Arena against the team that had arguably the best offseason in the NBA. With the Cleveland Cavaliers in town for a matchup between two rangy, switchable, athletic defences, I don’t know how much we’ll find out about the two offences on the court. But if you’re into clean rotations, rim protection and great defensive coaching, this is the game for you, Raps fans.
Beyond the brawl in Toronto, we have 11 other games Wednesday night, but I’m only going to give you my best bets: These are the games I feel most confident picking. The season is officially and truly underway.
Let’s find out if I’m in midseason form or still shaking off the rust.
Record against the spread: 1-1
Cleveland Cavaliers (+2.5, +120) @ Toronto Raptors (-2.5, -140) – 7:40 p.m. ET / 4:40 p.m. PT
One could argue that Cleveland had the best offseason in the league. In fact, I’m going to argue that right now. They added the best player on either market – free agent or trade – and it’s not just about how good Donovan Mitchell is. It’s about what he’s good at.
The Cavaliers relied too heavily on Darius Garland last season, and the young star will have another ball-handler to carry the load. This means Cleveland will have an elite point-of-attack guard on the floor at all times if the Cavs want to stagger their minutes, along with an elite rim protector/roll man, assuming they stagger Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. And all that is without even considering how big Mobley’s sophomore leap will be.
The point is, Toronto is going to have its hands full in this one. The best defender in their backcourt is Fred VanVleet, who is more than capable of guarding Garland or Mitchell. But the combinations in Cleveland’s front and backcourt could prove too much. If anyone’s capable of drawing up a defensive scheme to stop Cleveland’s new offence sight unseen, it’s coach Nick Nurse. And it’s possible he has, but I’m not going to bet on it.
Give me Cleveland (+2.5) and the points, because even if the Raps have a solution for Cleveland’s defence, I don’t think they have the weapons on offence to score consistently against these new-age twin towers.
I’m expecting a defensive slugfest, so I’ll take the UNDER 214.5 for the game as well.
Charlotte Hornets (-2, -125) @ San Antonio Spurs (+2, +105) – 8:10 p.m. ET / 5:10 p.m. PT
It wouldn’t be my column if I didn’t immediately break one of my own rules. A few days ago I told you to fade the Spurs (and anyone else clearly tanking for French wunderkind Victor Wenbanyama). But I have another rule that wasn’t front of mind enough to make my preseason tips article: Charlotte isn’t going to be good. I don’t care how good LaMelo Ball is, or how much he improves this season. Miles Bridges is a monster (allegedly), but he was the second-best player on the Hornets last season and he’s gone.
Despite the Spurs' upcoming tank-a-thon, teams like this are particularly frisky early in the season. Remember: the players and coaches aren’t trying to lose, and right now they all truly believe they can win. They haven’t been beaten down by months of losing yet. I like the Spurs to win this game outright in an upset, so I’m taking San Antonio (+2). Expect zero defence, grab the game OVER 226.0.
Denver Nuggets (-8, -320) @ Utah Jazz (+8, +260) – 9:10 p.m. ET / 6:10 p.m. PT
Last season, the world watched Nikola Jokic stomp his way through the league again with one thought in mind: Imagine how good this team could be if everyone was healthy.
Denver has done better than that. Sure, they get Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back, two players who perfectly complement the big man from Sombor. Let’s look beyond that, though. In Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, the Nuggets have also added two role players who fit their system perfectly. Defensive stalwarts, off ball shooters and great cutters. The ideal role players to pair with the Murray-Jokic two-man game. Utah is going to be bad this season, and they don’t have the horses to exploit Denver’s defensive weaknesses. Denver (-8) is the pick.
Dallas Mavericks (+4.5, +167) @ Phoenix Suns (-4.5, -192) – 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
It escaped me a few days ago when I was doling out season-long tips for betting on the NBA, but I really feel like fans, the media and betting markets are sleeping on Phoenix. There’s a lot of weird off-court stuff for them to deal with this season, from DeAndre Ayton’s relationship with the rest of the squad to an imminent ownership change.
Don’t forget: This team had a historically great regular season, and nothing significant has changed about the roster. They might not win 64 games this season, but the Suns are still very good at basketball. Dallas has made significant changes, and as good as Luka Doncic is, there is going to be an adjustment period. I’ll take Phoenix (-4.5). If you include its Western Conference Semifinals match-up, Phoenix went 5-0 at home against Dallas last season with an average margin of victory of 14.6. I’ll take DeAndre Ayton OVER 17.5 points and Luka Doncic OVER 7.5 assists. I’m betting the Suns do everything they can to get the ball out of Doncic’s hands.
The Sicko Same Game Parlay of the Day pays out at +800
Phoenix Suns -4.5
Luka Doncic OVER 7.5 assists
DeAndre Ayton OVER 17.5 points
Luka Doncic Double Double
As always, only bet what you can afford to lose. Play safe and don’t chase.
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