NBA Play-In Pick ‘Em: Lakers the favourite but Timberwolves could steal win

You can argue that the NBA’s play-in tournament dilutes the playoff field. You can argue 20 of the league’s 30 teams making the postseason is too much. You can moan about tradition and the way things were.

To that, I say…whatever, imaginary person who doesn’t like fun. Because after one of the craziest “Day 82” Sundays in recent memory, it’s tough to argue the play-in tournament doesn’t make the NBA more fun.

The play-in starts tonight, with the 7- and 8-seeds in each conference. Miami and Atlanta meet in a divisional battle, while the suddenly ascendant Lakers host the league’s punchiest team, the Minnesota Timberwolves. The stakes are simple: Win and you’re in. Lose, and you’re down to your last life.

All of that is tertiary to what we do here, though. Here, what matters is who covers, who goes over, and where the action is. So let’s get to some picks.

Atlanta Hawks (+5, +175) at Miami Heat (-5, -210)  – 7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT on SN360

This is a nightmare matchup for Trae Young and a Hawks team that limped into the 8-seed. Miami simply has Trae’s number. The Heat held him to just 15.4 points per game on 32/18/79 shooting splits en route to a 4-1 first-round playoff win last season. 

And the four times the Hawks and Heat met this year weren’t much better for Trae. Miami has multiple defenders to throw at the star guard, and arguably the league’s best pick-and-roll defender in Bam Adebayo. I’m surprised this line isn’t bigger, given the history here.

No complaining though, since it just makes Miami (-5) an easy pick. I love that I can get Kyle Lowry OVER 7.5 points (-125), since the former Raptor is coming off an injury. If he plays, I’m confident he’ll get to double digits. Same goes for Jimmy Butler OVER 0.5 threes. He’s not much of a deep shooter, but as playoff defences tighten up and dare him to shoot, Butler has obliged, historically. He hit a deep ball in 14 of 17 playoff games last season.

I wouldn’t scoff at Trae Young UNDER 24.5 points, either. He’s only topped that number four times in 17 career games against Miami.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+8.5, +290) at L.A. Lakers (-8.5, -370) – 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT on SN360

I was ready, gleeful even, to pick Minnesota in an upset against the Lakers. They match up well with L.A., with two defensive maestros in Rudy Gobert and Jayden McDaniels to throw at Anthony Davis and Lebron James, and some seriously dynamic scoring.

But during their final regular season game, the Timberwolves started punching things. McDaniels punched a wall and broke his hand. Then Gobert punched Kyle “Slo Mo” Anderson and broke any remaining semblance of good vibes in the Minnesota locker room.

Without both guys, Minnesota will have to play long stretches with Karl-Anthony Towns on Davis, and Slow Mo on Lebron. But the punches don’t just impact the Minnesota defence.

No Gobert or Naz Reid (left wrist fracture) means the Wolves can’t play two bigs at a time, which means Los Angeles’ game-breaking defence/rebounding/effort guy, Jarred Vanderbilt, can key in on Anthony Edwards.

It feels like Minnesota has no chance, so the smart pick here is Los Angeles (-8.5). I will say, if Mike Conley has a great game, Minnesota could be in a position to steal this since Towns and Edwards draw so much defensive attention.

No one’s ever gone broke betting on Karl-Anthony Towns to have a bad game in the playoffs, so I like Towns UNDER 23.5 points and Towns OVER 2.5 turnovers. I like Davis to eat without a serious defensive big to contend with, so give me Davis OVER 25.5 points.

The Sicko Same Game Parlay for Tuesday Night pays off at +1100

• Miami Heat Money Line
• Jimmy Butler OVER 0.5 threes
• Bam Adebayo OVER 1.5 blocks and steals
• Bam Adebayo double-double
• Kyle Lowry OVER 7.5 points

Back with more play-in pick ‘em tomorrow, as New Orleans meets Oklahoma City and the Toronto Raptors host the Bulls in a pair of loser-leaves-town games.

Till then, play safe and don’t chase.