Tonight, two home teams find themselves in an almost-must-win scenario after dropping Game 1 at home. The Boston Celtics discovered the reason I’m picking Milwaukee to win that series: You can’t truly shut down Giannis Antetokounmpo. He’s too good at creating for others, and he’s too good at impacting the game defensively when his shot isn’t falling.
That’s how you get a 101-89 Bucks win despite their star shooting just 36 per cent from the field. Will Giannis have such an inefficient night in back-to-back games? Probably not. But I’d also imagine Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown (32/38/60 combined shooting splits) will bounce back as they adapt to playing a legitimate NBA defence after four straight games of whatever Brooklyn was trying to pass off as such.
Memphis is in trouble after losing 117-116 to the Warriors in a game that saw Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson in early foul trouble and Draymond Green ejected before halftime. That’s a game you absolutely must have at home if you’re these young Grizzlies, and losing it just raises the stakes for Tuesday’s Game 2.
I started out hot, hitting around 60 per cent of my picks against the spread from the play-ins until about midway through the first round. Since then? 4-10. The bounce back is due! Nothing but positive vibes here.
Overall record against the spread: 12-15
Milwaukee Bucks (+5, +170) at Boston Celtics (-5, -200) – 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT
You’re going to see a pattern across both of tonight’s games. The lower seed has already stolen a game on the road, and I don’t like either team’s odds to repeat that feat in consecutive games. Milwaukee’s defensive scheme invites opponents to shoot threes (they allowed a league-worst 40.6 attempts per game this season), so this series will likely swing night-to-night on whether the Celtics are hitting the deep ball. Their streaky shooters will make this a high variance series.
Most prediction models I check have Boston between 65 and 71 per cent win probability going into this one, and that jives with my own gut feeling. I simply can’t imagine Boston not getting ONE game at home before the series shifts to Milwaukee. Plus, as cold as I’ve been, why not shake it up and listen to the nerds.
Boston defends home court (-5) and I like the OVER on Al Horford’s points (10.5). Boston’s game plan seems to be to use Horford to pull either Brooke Lopez or Antetokounmpo out of the lane, and that’s going to lead to a lot of open threes for him.
Golden State Warriors (-2, -130) at Memphis Grizzlies (+2, +110) – 9:30 p.m. ET / 6:30 p.m. PT
The Memphis Grizzlies went 8-3 against the spread as home dogs this season, and despite losing a heartbreaker to the Warriors in Game 1, they managed to cover (much to my chagrin). Golden State was the sixth-worst team in the league against the spread as road favourites. So, while Game 1 was wild and unpredictable, the result itself was the opposite from a bettor’s perspective.
Memphis got great performances out of Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., and while JJJ won’t be as scorching hot as he was in Game 1 again, the Warriors don’t have the kind of offence that will get him in foul trouble as frequently as Minnesota did. And it goes without saying Morant’s success is replicable. So, there remains some serious scoring headroom for Memphis after Dillon Brooks and Desmond Bane shot a combined 6/23 on Sunday.
The Grizzlies (+2) right the ship and tie the series. The over is 6-0 in the last six Warriors games following a win. That’s the kind of trend that’s fun to think about, but maybe less informative than you think. I do still think this game goes OVER at 227.5, as both the Grizz and Dubs want to push the pace and are careless with the ball at times.
The Sicko Same Game Parlay for Friday Night pays off at +700
• Boston Celtics Money Line
• Jayson Tatum 30 or more points
• Al Horford 10 or more rebounds
As always, play safe and don’t chase.
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