NBA Playoff Pick ‘Em: Suns should give Doncic biggest test of career

Well, we took one of the worst bad beats in my recent betting history with the Warriors beating the Grizzlies 117-116 Sunday night. I took the Warriors -2.5, a bet that would have hit had one of two things happened. First, if Klay Thompson had hit his free throws after the Warriors took that 117-116 lead, they likely win by three. But he missed both, so second: If the loose ball out of bounds after Thompson’s second missed free throw had been called in favour of Golden State (as it should have) we likely get two MORE free throws for the Dubs and a three-point win.

These bad losses are what make the wins even better. So we’ll move forward to Monday's games, as the league’s best in the Phoenix Suns will present one of the NBA’s brightest rising stars with the biggest test of his career. Plus, Philadelphia attempts to pull off the seemingly impossible: Winning a meaningful game without Joel Embiid.

Overall record against the spread: 11-14

Philadelphia 76ers (+7.5, +270) at Miami Heat (+7.5, -200) – 7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT

This series is a lot more even than I think people realize. Not because of anything between the lines, but because of health concerns on both teams. Obviously, the biggest missing piece for either team is Embiid, out indefinitely with a broken orbital bone.

But Miami is deceptively banged up. Kyle Lowry will miss Game 1, which should leave Philly wunderkind Tyrese Maxey with plenty of runway to get his offence going. Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Max Strus, P.J. Tucker and Caleb Martin have all been listed on the injury report over the weekend, though we know Butler and Tucker will be playing.

The Sixers will need to get continued efficiency from Maxey, along with more of what James Harden gave them in their series clincher against Toronto. I think we see a big game from Maxey with Butler occupied on Harden, but I think Bam Adebayo will make life very tough on Harden when he drives, and even tougher on Tobias Harris for as long as Embiid is out.

I’ve got Miami winning this one, but the line is chunky enough that I’m going to stay away from this one. That said, I'll take Philadelphia and the points, because I love betting on an underdog getting so many points in the playoffs. I’ll take the OVER on Tyrese Maxey’s points at 22.5, and the UNDER on Tobias Harris at 17.5.

Dallas Mavericks (+5.5, +195) at Phoenix Suns (-5.5, -235) – 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT

Outside of my Warriors trying to shake the multi-year bugaboo that has been the Memphis Grizzlies, this series has me the most excited. Dallas star Luka Doncic will face, in my opinion, the toughest test of his career. If the Utah Jazz were the perfect matchup to see Doncic into the second round for the first time, Phoenix is the antithesis.

Where Utah had human traffic cones for perimeter defenders, Phoenix boasts a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Mikal Bridges, a much improved (and deceptively athletic) Devin Booker, and one of the best defensive guards of his generation in Chris Paul.

Oh, and DeAndre Ayton is a pretty good rim protector in his own right. So does Doncic go Super Saiyan and find some flaw to exploit in the NBA’s most well-rounded team? He might, the kid is that immensely gifted. But it’s not going to happen in Game 1. I’ve got the Suns (-5.5) and I don’t have too much concern giving those points away. And I think Paul is petty enough to see a budding star point guard in Jalen Brunson and think "I’m going to destroy this kid." I’ll take Jalen Brunson UNDER 19.5 points.

The Sicko Same Game Parlay for Friday Night pays off at +1000

• Phoenix Suns -2.5 alternative spread
• UNDER 214.5 points combined
• Jalen Brunson UNDER 19.5 points
• DeAndre Ayton OVER 18.5 points
• DeAndre Ayton double-double

As always, play safe and don’t chase.