NBA Playoff Pick ‘Em: The power of home court advantage

Despite the Miami Heat ending the Philadelphia 76ers’ season in Philly Thursday night, the NBA Playoffs keep teaching us one lesson over and over: Don’t underestimate the power of home court advantage.

The home team is 17-5 in the conference semis, a number that would be even more lopsided without the road heroics of Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Will that trend continue? Will we see more than one Game 7 this round? And will the Golden State Warriors actually try Friday night?

The Grizzlies forced a Game 6 with an embarrassing blowout Wednesday night, and probably should have taken Game 4 as well. The Warriors are lucky to still be leading their series, and I don’t think anyone in the Bay Area wants to see this series go back to Memphis. I know I don’t.

Overall record against the spread: 21-22-1

Boston Celtics (+1.5, +105) at Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5, -125) – 7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT

Milwaukee’s Game 5 victory is what legends are made of. It’s the kind of game Jrue Holiday will be telling his grandchildren about in 30 years. The kind of game that fans in Milwaukee will still be excited about when Game 6 tips off Friday night. Fiserv Forum is going to be jumping, which could affect some of Boston’s role players.

There is tons of room for improvement for the Celtics, who shot the ball poorly in Game 5. That’s been my primary concern with betting this series: forecasting when Boston will have poor shooting nights. Despite how tough they’ve looked, let us not forget this is a young team that hasn’t figured out how to get over the playoff hump just yet. Maybe they figure it out here, but to do that they’ll have to leap past the league’s best player.

The Bucks needed another solid Pat Connaughton game in addition to outlier three-point shooting nights from Holiday (4-7) and Giannis (2-5) to win by three. But you won’t catch me betting against Antetokounmpo in a home playoff game, especially not one with a line this close.

Milwaukee (-1.5) is the pick. And why not, I’ve been hitting this bet over and over these playoffs, I’ll take Jrue Holiday OVER 1.5 steals. Jrue is a menace, and the Celtics’ guards struggle handling the ball in tight spaces.

Memphis Grizzlies (+8, +320) at Golden State Warriors (-8, -400) – 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT

I’m not going to do too much analysis of Game 5. Golden State sucked. They played with either so much arrogance or so little motivation that Memphis had this game in the bag about four minutes into the second quarter. As Jay-Z said: On to the next one.

The only thing of note was Memphis finally winning the rebounding battle, a stat we’d expected them to dominate all series long. To do this, they went to their regular Steven Adams-Jaren Jackson Jr. front court. I’m pretty confident the Warriors can, with LITERALLY ANY EFFORT

(I’m so mad at how little it looked like they cared), play Adams off the court by rendering him a liability on defence. But until they do, he’ll hurt them on the glass.

The Warriors are playing with fire, but you could see it in their eyes in that third quarter on Wednesday. They’re all thinking “It’s fine, we’ll take Game 6 at home.” And they probably will. But the hubris to come into Game 5 with that kind of energy…the basketball Gods do note like stuff like that.

Still, the Warriors are at home, in a meaningful game, and they can’t play worse than they did in Game 5. I’ve got the Warriors winning, but I think it’s close. Grizzlies (+8) is the pick and since the Warriors are going to need wing and guard rebounding as usual, I’ll go with Stephen Curry OVER 5. Rebounds, and Andrew Wiggins OVER 5.5 rebounds.

The Sicko Same Game Parlay of The Night pays off at +1200

· Milwaukee Bucks Money Line

· Jru Holiday OVER 1.5 steals

· Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 0.5 steals

· Wesley Matthews OVER 10.5 points, assists and rebounds combined

· Game Total OVER 211.5

As always, play safe and don’t chase.