NBA Playoff Pick 'Em: Timberwolves a close call against Grizzlies

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Memphis Grizzlies series has been…strange. These two teams are so athletic, so intense, and so young, it almost feels like they’re sprinting headlong at one another and colliding…and both falling.

It’s been awkward, it’s been explosive, it’s been sloppy, and it’s been VERY exciting. And Game 6 is our only game tonight, so for once, all eyes will be on two extremely fun, young, small-market teams butting heads.

Because the Conference Semifinals are rounding into shape. With just one game tonight, let’s get into some series picks as well.

Overall record against the spread: 11-11

Memphis Grizzlies (-1, -115) at Minnesota Timberwolves (+1, -105) – 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT

If you’re a regular reader, you already know how I’m picking this game. I said it before Game 5: This series is going seven games, and I’ll be picking the home team for the rest of it. And at this point, frankly it’d be a shame if an opening round this fun didn’t have at least one Game 7.

Memphis has been the NBA’s best team against the spread, which makes this pick scary, but I’ve had a feeling this series was going the distance since the Wolves took Game 1, and I’m sticking with it. The race to six fouls between Jaren Jackson Jr. and Karl-Anthony Towns has been continually impactful, and in Minnesota that’s more likely to fall KAT’s way.

Timberwolves (+1) is the pick. With a little D’Angelo Russell OVER 16.5 points to boot.

Now, let’s move into an arena in which I shined bright in round one. Unfortunately, I wasn’t writing about my picks when I made the bets, but I had action on Golden State, Dallas, Philadelphia, Boston, Miami and Memphis. The worst I can do on my first round series picks is 5-1. It’s time for series previews!

Philadelphia 76ers (+175) vs Miami Heat (-210)

This line is going to move, one way or another, and make this series more worth betting. As is, I’m staying away. Philadelphia has some serious upset potential, as much as I’ve decried how little respect the top-seeded Heat seem to get. It’s possible, nay, probable, that Joel Embiid is the best player in this series. When the NBA turns into a meat grinder in the playoffs, it often comes down to which team has the best player.

These two teams split the season series 2-2, but they only averaged 201 combined points per game. So keep an eye on the total game score bets. If it’s sitting at O/U 210 like a lot of perceived low-scoring matchups have been this postseason, pounce on the under.

Now, Embiid is probably the best player on the court in this series, but with James Harden underperforming, Miami might have the second, third and fourth best players in Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Kyle Lowry. I know one thing for sure: Tyrese Maxey is going to find much tougher sledding in this matchup than he did against the Toronto Raptors.

I like Miami here, in either six or seven games. But I’ll be watching that Philly line and if it hits around +225, I can see some value there. Embiid may not have won MVP this season, but he’s certainly an MVP-calibre player.

Milwaukee Bucks (+175) vs Boston Celtics (-210)

Another match-up featuring teams that split their season series 2-2. But I’m going to throw out the first three games, all of which came before the New Year, because the Boston Celtics are a different team now than they were in 2021. The Celtics we’ve seen for the last four months can make an argument they have the fourth or fifth best defence of all time.

This series hinges on one question and one question alone: Can the Milwaukee Bucks do this without Khris Middleton? The All-Star wing is still out with a Grade 2 MCL Sprain, and will likely miss the entire series. That means Jrue Holiday has to guard Jayson Tatum, while dealing with Defensive Player of the Year winner Marcus Smart guarding him on the offensive end.

I have a feeling Milwaukee is going to need 40+ points from Giannis Antetokounmpo to win games in this series. But I wouldn’t put it past him. We just saw Boston manhandle two extremely gifted scorers in Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. But those guys do it with finesse.

Giannis just beats you down.

We’re going to see Al Horford, Grant Williams, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and probably even Marcus Smart taking turns on Giannis. We’re going to see double and triple teams. We’re going to see images on Twitter of all five Celtics defenders moving toward Giannis when he drives. The question is what happens when The Greek Freak passes out on those drives?

Do Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton and Brooke Lopez hit their shots? Because when Giannis is going, and his teammates are able to profit from it, I’m not sure the Celtics have the offensive firepower to keep up. I can’t resist it. I believe in Giannis Antetokounmpo. I believe in teams who have been there before. Teams who have done it. This kind of series is where legends are made.

And Giannis is already a living legend. Give me Milwaukee to win it in six.

Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns

As of filing, the lines for this series haven’t been posted yet, so I’m just going to give you a quick breakdown of what I think matters in this series.

Utah was the perfect matchup for this Dallas team. I don’t think we’re going to see too many 40-point games from Jalen Brunson with Chris Paul and Devin Booker guarding him, and the going will be tougher for Luka Doncic with an elite wing defender in Mikal Bridges to throw at him.

There are two big question marks here for me.

First: How healthy is Devin Booker? He looked OK in Thursday night’s series-clincher against New Orleans, but he needs to be himself for Phoenix to keep this run going. Chris Paul is an all-time great, but he’s turning 37-years-old in less than two weeks, and I’m betting Doncic is going to hunt him when Dallas has the ball. He’ll need some help.

Second: Can Deandre Ayton punish the Mavericks when they go to those super small ball lineups they love? Dallas closed out Utah with a five man line up of Doncic, Dorian Finney-Smith, Spencer Dinwiddie, Brunson and Reggie Bullock. It worked against Utah because Rudy Gobert can’t punish mismatches.

The Suns, on the other hand, are the league’s best when it comes to punishing a mismatch. And Ayton is a skilled enough scorer to score on either Doncic or Finney-Smith, whoever you want to call that lineup’s centre. Phoenix wins this in five.

The Sicko Same Game Parlay for Friday Night pays off at +900

· Minnesota Timberwolves Moneyline

· Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 1.5 threes

· Jaren Jackson Jr. OVER 12.5 points

· D’Angelo Russell OVER 16.5 points

As always, play safe and don’t chase.