If you hold the Golden State Warriors to 101 points, you must win that game. And if you get a career-best (and frankly, dominant) game from your 36-year-old centre, you must win that game. The Boston Celtics did in the latter, while the Memphis Grizzlies fumbled the bag in the former.
Despite what was arguably the most poorly played Warriors game in the Steph-Klay-Draymond era, Golden State emerged victorious from an ugly Game 4 over the Grizzlies. They managed to focus up and put it together for eight minutes, which was enough to beat the hobbled and inexperienced Grizzlies. And in the East, my early series thought that Giannis Antetokounmpo would need to be the best player on the court in four games for the Milwaukee Bucks to have a chance is looking more and more accurate.
Coming off one of the worst bad beats of my career, Monday was a get-right night. So, let’s keep it rolling!
Overall record against the spread: 20-19-1
Milwaukee Bucks (+5.5, +190) at Boston Celtics (-5.5, -230) – 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT on Sportsnet ONE
I’ve been a fan of Al Horford for so long, despite betting on Milwaukee and generally hating Boston sports, I couldn’t help but get caught up in his explosion in Game 4. Big Al was winning NCAA Tournaments when I was still in high school. I’m 34 now. But specifically because I’ve been a fan of him this long, I doubt he’s going to do that again.
This series comes down to one question for me, at this point: Does Giannis Antetokounmpo have two more Crazy Giannis games left in him? Because it feels like the Bucks need him to be in full World Destroyer mode to win in this series. Milwaukee’s casting about, looking for literally anyone else to do anything on offence and all they’re finding is a timid Greyson Allen, an inefficient Jrue Holiday, and a surprisingly useful Pat Connaughton.
Newsflash: If you’re in a playoff series and hoping for a great night from Pat Connaughton, you’re in trouble. On the other hand, Boston has been streaky all series from the perimeter, and needed 84 per cent shooting as a team in the fourth quarter just to come back and win Game 4. I think Giannis figures it out enough to keep this one close, and that 5.5 point spread is too tempting. Giannis getting points? Yes please!
I’ve got the Bucks (+5.5). And the books are bumping Horford’s player prop numbers after his performance in Game 4, so let’s fade that and bet on him regressing back to the mean a little. I’ll take Horford UNDER 9.5 rebounds, and UNDER 2.5 threes made. I’ve had a great run with defensive props, so I’m hitting Marcus Smart OVER 1.5 combined steals and blocks.
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Golden State Warriors (-4, -175) at Memphis Grizzlies (+4, +155) – 9:30 p.m. ET / 6:30 p.m. PT on Sportsnet One
The Golden State Warriors missed their first 15 three pointers on Monday in Game 4. They scored just 38 points in the first half. Their best shooter was Otter Porter Jr. and the short-handed Grizzlies found a way to lose.
Now, Memphis didn’t shoot much better. But not all missed shots are created equal. The Warriors were getting their regular open looks by design of Steve Kerr’s motion offence. They were just laying enough bricks to restore the Great Wall of China to its original length. Memphis’ struggles, for the most part, stemmed from missing Ja Morant and his ability to punish weak links in the Golden State defence.
If you can’t punish Jordan Poole’s inexperience, Klay Thompson’s lack of footspeed or Steph Curry’s size in isolation, this Warriors team is tough to score on. They are fully stocked with great help defenders like Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins and Porter.
All of that is a long-winded way of saying the Warriors are far less likely to struggle as much from the field in Game 5 as the Grizzlies are. I’m taking the Warriors (-4), and I’m going to roll with my wing rebounding philosophy (the Warriors are outrebounding Memphis on the strength of Thompson and Wiggins selling out for defensive boards), I’m going to go with Thompson OVER 4.5 rebounds and Wiggins OVER 5.5 rebounds. I’m also going to tack on Curry OVER 3.5 threes made and Wiggins OVER 15.5 points.
If Ja Morant miraculously plays, disregard all that and hammer the Grizzlies Money Line as hard as you can, because they’re winning the game.
The Sicko Same Game Parlay of The Night pays off at +1400
• Golden State Warriors Money Line
• Steph Curry OVER 3.5 threes made
• Andrew Wiggins OVER 15.5 points
• Andrew Wiggins OVER 5.5 rebounds
• Klay Thompson OVER 4.5 rebounds.
As always, play safe and don’t chase.
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